Spotify’s Shifting Sands: Are Major Labels Regaining Control of the Streaming Landscape?
For years, the narrative in the music industry has been consistent: the combined global market share of the three major record labels (Universal, Sony, Warner) and Merlin on Spotify has been steadily declining. But that trend appears to have experienced a slight reversal in 2025, according to Spotify’s latest data.
The Numbers Tell a Story
Spotify’s annual report reveals that the major labels plus Merlin accounted for 72% of all music streams globally in 2025, a gain of one percentage point. While seemingly small, this marks the first year-over-year increase in their combined market share in Spotify’s history as a public company. Previously, this cohort had seen a consistent decline from 87% in 2017 to 71% in 2024 – a 1600 basis point drop.
Conversely, companies not represented by the majors or Merlin saw their combined market share increase significantly, from 13% in 2017 to 29% in 2024. This growth was largely fueled by the rise of independent artists and distributors like DistroKid, Empire and Believe/TuneCore.
The Rise of the “Mid-Tier” Artist and Label Consolidation
The shift in market share may signal a broader trend. The growth of independent artists, often categorized as the “mid-tier” – commercially viable acts operating outside the global Top 10 – has been a key driver of the decline in major label dominance over the past decade. Are the majors now making inroads into this segment?
Recent acquisitions suggest they are. Universal Music Group’s (UMG) completed acquisition of [PIAS] in October 2024, and the pending acquisition of Downtown Music Funds, are likely contributing factors to this shift. These moves consolidate independent distribution networks under the major label umbrella.
Merlin’s Continued Influence and the Power of Catalog
Merlin, representing independent labels, continues to play a significant role. High-streaming clients represented by Merlin, and the success of albums distributed through independent branches of major labels – such as Disappointing Bunny’s DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS distributed by The Orchard – demonstrate the ongoing importance of the independent sector.
Despite the gains made by independent distributors, the majors still dominate the top of the charts. The top 10 albums on Spotify in 2025 were all released by major labels, and the same was true for the top 10 songs globally.
What Does This Mean for the Future?
The music industry is in constant flux. The recent shift in Spotify’s market share distribution doesn’t necessarily indicate a complete reversal of fortunes for independent labels. However, it does suggest that the majors are actively working to recapture lost ground, particularly within the growing “mid-tier” artist segment.
Further consolidation within the industry, coupled with Merlin’s expanding membership base, will likely continue to shape the streaming landscape in the years to arrive.
FAQ
Q: What is “market share” in the context of Spotify?
A: It refers to the percentage of total music streaming volume on Spotify accounted for by specific entities, like major labels or independent distributors.
Q: Does this change in market share affect artist royalties?
A: No, this metric is based on streaming volume and is not directly affected by changes to Spotify’s royalty models.
Q: What is Merlin’s role in all of this?
A: Merlin represents independent labels and negotiates licensing agreements with Spotify on their behalf.
Q: Are major labels actively acquiring independent labels?
A: Yes, recent acquisitions like UMG’s purchase of [PIAS] demonstrate a trend towards consolidation.
Did you know? Spotify’s data only accounts for music streaming and excludes audiobooks and podcasts.
Pro Tip: Keep an eye on industry acquisitions and partnerships – they often signal shifts in power dynamics within the music ecosystem.
What are your thoughts on the changing dynamics of the music industry? Share your insights in the comments below!
