The Sky is Falling: Why We Demand to Rethink Space Debris Regulations
The next major accident involving falling space debris isn’t a question of if, but when. And when it happens, the focus won’t be on a single satellite’s failure, but on why regulators haven’t accounted for the cumulative risk posed by tens of thousands of spacecraft.
For two decades, spacefaring nations have operated under a rule stating any satellite in orbit must have less than a one in 10,000 chance of injuring someone on the ground. This rule was established when only a few dozen objects reentered the atmosphere annually. However, with over 9,000 Starlink satellites currently orbiting and filings for constellations totaling over 70,000 spacecraft, that calculation is no longer valid.
The Growing Threat of Megaconstellations
Recent research published in Acta Astronautica calculated the collective probability of debris from eleven major megaconstellations impacting someone on Earth. The result? A staggering 40 percent. This figure highlights a critical gap between how safety is currently assessed and how risk actually accumulates with tens of thousands of objects reentering the atmosphere.
The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) recognizes low-Earth orbit as a limited resource, warning it’s in danger of becoming overexploited without proper deorbiting management. Collisions between satellites and debris create more debris, potentially leading to Kessler Syndrome – a self-propagating cascade of collisions that could render low-Earth orbit unusable.
“Design for Demise” Isn’t Always Enough
Satellites don’t simply vanish upon reentry. They break apart at around 80 kilometers altitude, with most components vaporizing due to friction. However, materials with high melting points often survive. Stainless steel fuel tanks, titanium pressure vessels, and tungsten reaction wheels are designed to withstand extreme conditions in space, making them resistant to complete disintegration during reentry.
SpaceX designs its Starlink satellites for “design for demise,” intending for them to disintegrate completely. However, this hasn’t always been the case. In 2024, a 2.5 kilogram fragment of a Starlink satellite crashed onto a farm in Saskatchewan, Canada, and similar fragments have been reported in Poland, Kenya, North Carolina, and Algeria. SpaceX attributed the incident to an earlier than expected loss of control, reducing atmospheric friction.
The situation is becoming more critical as SpaceX launches second-generation Starlink satellites, which are approximately 2 metric tons – more than eight times heavier than the original 250 kilogram design. Whether these larger spacecraft can be engineered to burn up completely remains an unanswered question.
Beyond Impact Risk: Atmospheric Pollution
The issue extends beyond the risk of physical impact. Researchers have documented an eightfold increase in atmospheric aluminum oxides between 2016 and 2022, directly linked to the proliferation of satellite constellations. In 2022 alone, reentering satellites released an estimated 41.7 metric tons of aluminum, exceeding the natural input from micrometeoroids by 30 percent.
A Regulatory Catch-Up
Current orbital debris regulations are outdated. The one in 10,000 casualty risk threshold, introduced in 1995, was designed for a time when satellite reentries were far less frequent. France, Japan, the European Space Agency, and the Inter Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee have adopted similar standards.
However, these rules assess satellites individually. A constellation of 30,000 satellites, each with a one in 10,000 risk, results in a collective probability of approximately 95 percent that some satellite will cause a casualty. No regulator currently calculates or limits this cumulative probability.
Some agencies are beginning to adapt. France updated its Space Operations Act in June 2024 to limit the total collective risk from constellations of 100 or more satellites to one in 100. The European Space Agency revised its guidelines in October 2023, recommending a stricter per-satellite standard of one in 100,000 for large constellations. The United States has not yet updated its threshold, and the Federal Communications Commission doesn’t consider atmospheric pollution or ozone depletion in its licensing reviews.
FAQ: Space Debris and Risk
- What is Kessler Syndrome? A self-propagating cascade of collisions in orbit, potentially rendering low-Earth orbit unusable.
- What is “design for demise”? An industry practice aiming to ensure satellites disintegrate completely upon reentry.
- Is space debris a new problem? No, but the risk has dramatically increased with the proliferation of megaconstellations.
- Are regulators doing anything about it? Some agencies are updating regulations, but a global, coordinated approach is needed.
Explore more: Federal Communications Commission – Orbital Debris
