The war that erupted in Sudan in April 2023 has turned the country into a battlefield for land and resources, leaving an estimated death toll above 150,000 and displacing more than 12 million people inside Sudan or across its borders.
Emerging frontlines and a de‑facto split
Early in the conflict the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) held most of Khartoum and the western region of Darfur, although the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) kept the north‑east and the government fled to Port Sudan. By early 2025 the SAF reclaimed El Gezira and Khartoum, pushing the RSF west of the Nile River valley. The RSF then concentrated on Darfur, besieging and finally overrunning El Fasher in October, where thousands of civilians were killed.
Today the RSF controls the capitals of all five Darfur states, cementing its grip on the west, whereas the SAF dominates the east and most central Nile provinces. Fighting continues in Kordofan and the southern Blue Nile state. The map now shows Sudan effectively split in two.
Why the stalemate matters
Both generals—General Abdel Fattah al‑Burhan of the SAF and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) of the RSF—still claim the possibility of total victory, yet the entrenched lines suggest further territorial gains are unlikely. A frozen front could solidify a permanent division or trigger fragmentation on both sides.
External actors heavily influence the balance. Egypt supplies intelligence, material and permits drone launches against the RSF from its territory. Saudi Arabia leans toward the SAF, while the United Arab Emirates backs the RSF. Both sides as well receive arms from Iran, Russia, and Turkey, and export gold to their regional patrons.
Potential paths forward
If regional and international powers apply enough pressure, the current split could become a bargaining chip for a cease‑fire. The RSF’s unilateral “humanitarian cease‑fire” after taking El Fasher, and ongoing U.S.‑led Quad peace road‑map, indicate a window for negotiations, though the SAF has demanded the RSF withdraw from key cities and relinquish heavy weapons before agreeing.
A truce would likely require coordinated sanctions on arms and gold flows, threats to cut off drone supplies, and incentives such as safe‑exit guarantees for military leaders and post‑war reconstruction aid. Even if a cease‑fire is secured, civilian‑led political processes would be essential to prevent a lasting partition of Sudan.
Frequently Asked Questions
What territories does each side currently control?
The RSF holds the capitals of all five Darfur states in the west, while the SAF controls the east and most central provinces along the Nile, with ongoing battles in Kordofan and Blue Nile.
Why has the war become a stalemate?
After the SAF recaptured El Gezira and Khartoum in early 2025, the RSF shifted its focus to Darfur, leading to a clear geographic division that makes further large‑scale advances demanding for both sides.
Which regional powers are involved and how?
Egypt supports the SAF with intelligence, material and drone launch sites; Saudi Arabia leans toward the SAF; the United Arab Emirates backs the RSF. Both sides also receive arms from Iran, Russia and Turkey, and export gold to these patrons.
What do you think is the most realistic path to ending the fighting in Sudan?
