Title: Kremlin’s High Stakes: Putin’s Rare Apology and the Undersea Tensions
In an unexpected move, Vladimir Putin, a leader known for his unyielding stance, attempted to express regret following the New Year’s Day incident where an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane was shot down over Russia. While not admitting blame directly, Putin acknowledged in a phone call with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev that the "tragic incident occurred within Russia’s airspace." This unusual candor reflects the delicate balance of Putin’s position, which can be undermined by unexpected crises.
The New Year’s Gambit
As 2024 drew to a close, Putin was riding high on a wave of optimism. At his marathon annual press conference just days earlier, he was confident, even cocky, boasting about the capabilities of the new Russian intermediate-range missile "Orenburg" and salivating at the prospect of a "high-tech" duel with the best of Western air defense systems. But as the new year began, Moscow seemed to have pulled off a brazen act of defiance, using a tanker from its "phantom fleet" to sever undersea internet cables in the Baltic Sea.
Submarine Wars
According to Finnish authorities, the petroleum tanker Eagle S sliced through the Estlink 2 power cable connecting Finland and Estonia, as well as several data communication cables, by dragging its anchor across the seafloor. This is just the latest in a string of such incidents. In December, the Chinese-registered Yi Peng 3 apparently snipped two more data cables. Back in October 2023, another Chinese vessel, the Newnew Polar Bear, sheared off the Balticconnector gas pipeline and two data cables before heading north towards Russia.
Western intelligence agencies suspect that while these acts are carried out by civilian ships, they are coordinated by Russia’s GRU military intelligence. Although its name translates to "Main Directorate for Deep-Sea Research," GUGI, an undersea research agency under Russia’s defense ministry, specializes in precisely these types of operations. Boasting a fleet of mini-submarines and other platforms, Russia could quickly escalate tensions underwater.
Meanwhile, the "Yantar," GUGI’s "oceanographic research vessel," has been mapping underwater pipelines and cables, most recently trailing an Irish vessel while ostensibly surveying transatlantic communications. Given that over 95% of the UK’s internet traffic travels through undersea cables, the potential threat is clear.
Vulnerable Links
While there are usually backup systems and workarounds when these links are compromised, repairing the Estlink 2 cable will take months, and the national power grid continues to function normally. Similarly, when the Yi Peng 3 severed a fiber-optic cable carrying a third of Lithuania’s internet traffic, it was quickly rerouted. But gas pipelines are a different beast. If enough communication cables are cut, as a royal naval expert puts it, "everything starts to slow down and degrade," including the responsiveness of the global financial system, which processes nearly $8 trillion in transactions daily through these cables.
Delicate Balance
The intentional targeting of European countries’ infrastructure is Moscow’s way of demonstrating it can cause significant disruption without provoking a major response. By inducing minor inconveniences and highlighting the potential severity of unrestrained Russian aggression, Putin seeks to undermine the West’s continued support for Ukraine. Despite the Eagle S incident, Putin seemed confident enough to escalate his pressure campaign, though the Airbus crash quickly overshadowed the tanker’s actions.
Disaster in the Skies
Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 was en route from Baku to Grozny in southern Russia when it was apparently struck by a surface-to-air missile and crashed while attempting to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan. Of the 67 passengers and crew, only 29 survived.
U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby stated that "early indications" suggest the plane may have been downed by Russian air defense systems, although Russian authorities initially claimed the plane hit a bird flock during heavy fog in Grozny. Ukraine, which may have targeted Grozny with drone strikes, could have disrupted Russian electronic warfare systems, causing the missile battery to misidentify the plane as military.
Fallout
Azərbaycan, a key gas hub, and Kazakhstan, a major importer of sanctioned goods for re-export to Russia, both stood to lose from the crash. Azerbaijan suspended flights to Russia, as did Kazakh airlines. The political ramifications extended far beyond the immediate aftermath, with Aliyev promptly canceling a planned visit to St. Petersburg.
Putin’s الذهاب in acknowledging Russia’s role in the crash appeared to be a calculated response to the realise political realities at hand. While his bravado may have been rattled, it remains to be seen whether this wake-up call truly jeopardizes his previously unshaken confidence. 그동안, the rare apology serves as a stark reminder of the Kremlin’s delicate balance of power and the dangerous games it plays with regional stability.
Analysis by Mark Galeotti for The Times.
