Australian trust in the United States has reached a record low, with only 31 per cent of Australians believing the U.S. will act responsibly in world affairs, according to the latest Lowy Institute poll. This decline, driven by widespread disapproval of the Trump administration’s policy agenda, has narrowed the trust gap between the U.S. and China to just three percentage points, as public sentiment toward Beijing shows signs of warming.
Why is Australian trust in the U.S. at a record low?
The plummeting confidence is tied directly to the current U.S. presidential administration, according to Lowy Institute poll author Charles Lyons-Jones. Only 21 per cent of Australians trust President Donald Trump to handle world affairs, a figure nearly identical to the 20 per cent who express trust in Chinese President Xi Jinping. Mr. Lyons-Jones notes that Australians harbor a “strong distaste” for specific policies, including the use of tariffs as a coercive tool and pressure exerted on sovereign nations like Denmark.
While trust in the U.S. has hit a record low of 31 per cent, this is not the first time the alliance has faced scrutiny. In 2007, during the Iraq War, public support for the importance of the U.S. alliance dipped to 63 per cent under George W. Bush—a lower point than the current 73 per cent who still view the alliance as important to national security.
How does the U.S.-China trust gap compare to previous years?
The gap between the two powers has shrunk significantly since 2022, when 65 per cent of Australians trusted the U.S. compared to just 12 per cent for China. Current data shows trust in China has risen to 28 per cent, while trust in the U.S. has cratered. This shift is partially attributed to economic pragmatism; 61 per cent of Australians now view China primarily as an economic partner rather than a security threat, an 11-point increase from the previous year.
Will the U.S. alliance survive the decline in public trust?
Despite the dip in confidence, the U.S. alliance remains a cornerstone of Australian security strategy. According to the Lowy Institute, 73 per cent of Australians still consider the alliance “very” or “fairly” important. Mr. Lyons-Jones suggests that Australian public opinion is resilient, noting that citizens remain pragmatic about the competitive geopolitical environment. A majority of the public continues to support the presence of U.S. military bases on Australian soil.
Top-trusted nations for Australians
- Japan: 89 per cent trust
- Germany: 83 per cent trust
- United Kingdom: 81 per cent trust
When analyzing geopolitical shifts, look beyond the “feelings thermometer.” While trust in leadership fluctuates, institutional ties—such as trade agreements and established military infrastructure—often provide a more stable, long-term indicator of a nation’s foreign policy trajectory.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Which world leader currently holds the highest confidence rating among Australians?
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney leads the poll with 66 per cent confidence, followed by New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.
- Is Australia still viewed as the dominant influence in Asia?
- No. The latest Asia Power Index shows Australia slipping behind Russia in regional influence, with the landscape still dominated by the U.S. and China.
- How do Australians view Indonesia and India?
- Attitudes remain lukewarm, with 57 per cent of respondents trusting Indonesia and 50 per cent trusting India to act responsibly.
What do you think is the biggest factor influencing Australia’s foreign policy shift? Share your thoughts in the comments section below or subscribe to our newsletter for deep-dive analysis on global security trends.
