Voters in Brisbane’s northern electorate of Stafford have headed to the polls today for a high-stakes by-election focused on health care and fuel costs. The contest was triggered by the death of former Labor and independent MP Jimmy Sullivan.
The Battle for Stafford
The race is expected to be a tight contest between Labor’s Luke Richmond, the party’s recent assistant state secretary, and the LNP’s Fiona Hammond, a former Brisbane City councillor.
While Labor has historically dominated the seat, winning nine of the last 10 elections, its grip has loosened. At the 2024 state election, the Labor margin was reduced to just over 5 per cent.
Ms. Hammond, who unsuccessfully contested the 2024 election, acknowledged that Stafford is a “Labor seat” but predicted the result would be “close.” Meanwhile, Mr. Richmond described the campaign as “one of the great joys of my life.”
Key Issues and Voter Concerns
The campaign has split into two primary narratives. Labor has framed the vote as a referendum on health, alleging that the government is cutting beds at the local hospital—a claim the LNP has disputed.
Conversely, the LNP has focused heavily on fuel, making several announcements in recent weeks aimed at securing long-term fuel sovereignty. Premier David Crisafulli described the LNP as the “underdog” but stated they are offering a vision that contrasts with the opposition.
Local voters have cited a variety of pressing concerns. One voter, Marty, noted that community safety and violent home invasions were his primary motivations for supporting the Liberals. Another voter, Jarrod, a teacher, indicated he shifted his vote to Labor this time to seek a pay rise for teachers, despite uncertainty regarding the cost of living.
Political Tensions and Legal Clashes
The polling day has not been without conflict. An exchange occurred between Premier David Crisafulli and Liam Parry, the Queensland Socialists candidate, regarding new hate speech laws.
Mr. Parry, who was charged in March for reciting the phrase “from the river to the sea” at a protest, questioned the premier on the legitimacy of taking away free speech. The Queensland government has outlawed phrases including “from the river to the sea” and “globalise the intifada” when used to menace or offend, deeming them antisemitic.
In a video shared by the Queensland Socialists, Mr. Parry claimed he was being “dragged through court” by the government, while Mr. Crisafulli declined to engage, telling him “not today.”
Turnout and Participation
Nine candidates are contesting the poll, including Jess Lane for the Greens, who secured approximately 18 per cent of the primary vote in the last state election. The Greens are utilizing an open ticket, choosing not to direct voters on preference numbering.
One Nation is not contesting the by-election, citing a focus on the 2028 state election. Early voting saw nearly 42 per cent of the electorate participate, with 13,644 early votes and 3,728 postal votes cast.
However, Queensland Electoral Commissioner Pat Vidgen expressed concern over overall participation. While turnout exceeded 90 per cent in 2024, current trends suggest it may drop to 80 per cent.
What Happens Next
The outcome could potentially influence the political standing of Labor leader Steven Miles. While Mr. Miles has dismissed claims that the result will change the government or his leadership, the government may use the swing percentages to challenge his position.
Depending on the final tally, a significant swing toward the LNP could validate the premier’s “underdog” strategy, while a strong Labor hold would likely silence critics of the current party leadership.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why was the Stafford by-election called?
The by-election was triggered by the death of former Labor and independent MP Jimmy Sullivan.
What are the primary campaign issues for the major parties?
Labor has focused on health care and the alleged cutting of hospital beds, while the LNP has campaigned heavily on fuel sovereignty.
How does the current voter turnout compare to the 2024 election?
Turnout in 2024 was just over 90 per cent, but Electoral Commissioner Pat Vidgen noted that current trends suggest it may drop to 80 per cent for this by-election.
Do you believe local issues like hospital beds and fuel prices are more influential in by-elections than national party leadership?
