CEF

South African Fuel Prices: Bracing for a May Hike and Beyond

South African motorists are facing a looming increase in fuel prices for May, driven by ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East and fluctuating international oil prices. The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicates significant under-recoveries across all fuel grades, signaling substantial price adjustments at the pump.

Current Projections: A Deep Dive into the Numbers

As of April 14, 2026, the CEF’s daily snapshot forecasts a concerning rise in prices. 93-octane petrol, primarily available inland, is projected to increase by approximately R2.62 per liter, while 95-octane could notice a rise of R2.99/l. Diesel users are bracing for an even more substantial impact, with 0.05% sulphur diesel expected to jump by R9.05/l and 0.005% sulphur diesel by R9.07/l.

Currently, inland prices stand at R23.25/l for 93-octane petrol and R23.36/l for 95-octane. Coastal prices for 95-octane are slightly lower at R22.53/l. Wholesale diesel prices are currently R25.90/l (0.05% sulphur) and R26.11/l (0.005% sulphur) inland, compared to R25.07/l and R25.35/l respectively on the coast.

The Reinstatement of the General Fuel Levy: Adding Fuel to the Fire

The situation is further complicated by the anticipated reinstatement of the government’s general fuel levy cut. A temporary reduction of R3/l across all fuel grades is set to expire, potentially compounding the projected increases. This could push petrol prices towards R30/l and diesel closer to R40/l, significantly impacting household budgets and business operating costs.

South Africans brace for fuel prices set to skyrocket

Global Factors at Play: Middle East Conflict and Oil Prices

The primary driver behind these anticipated increases is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. As highlighted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the war is disrupting global energy markets and creating upward pressure on crude oil prices. With crude currently trading above $100 per barrel, African nations, particularly those heavily reliant on imports, are feeling the strain.

The Energy in Africa reports that while oil-rich nations like Libya and Angola benefit from government subsidies, other countries are far more vulnerable to these global shocks.

South Africa’s Energy Landscape: A Gaze at Refinery Capacity

Historically, Africa has been heavily reliant on imported petroleum products. Up until 2024, approximately 90% of the continent’s needs were met through imports. Nigeria’s local refinery offers some supply security, but South Africa continues to grapple with refining capacity challenges. Pressure is mounting on the government to reopen the Sapref refinery to bolster fuel security, as reported by MSN.

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The Role of the Central Energy Fund

The Central Energy Fund (CEF), a state-owned entity, plays a crucial role in South Africa’s energy sector. However, the World Benchmarking Alliance currently scores the CEF with a “G – Uncommitted” rating, indicating a lack of comprehensive climate transition planning and investment.

Did you know? The CEF operates through subsidiaries involved in oil and gas exploration, midstream gas operations, and coal mining for electricity generation.

Looking Ahead: Potential Future Trends

The current situation highlights the vulnerability of South Africa’s energy sector to external shocks. Several trends are likely to shape the future of fuel prices:

Geopolitical Instability: Continued conflict in the Middle East will likely maintain upward pressure on oil prices.
Refining Capacity: Increasing local refining capacity is crucial for reducing reliance on imports and enhancing fuel security.
Energy Transition: Investment in renewable energy sources and alternative fuels could mitigate the impact of volatile oil prices in the long term.
Government Policy: Decisions regarding fuel levies and subsidies will continue to play a significant role in determining prices at the pump.

FAQ: Your Fuel Price Questions Answered

When will the final fuel price adjustments for May be announced? The adjustments will take effect on Wednesday, May 6.
What is the current price of 95-octane petrol inland? Currently, We see R23.36/l.
What is driving up fuel prices? The conflict in the Middle East and fluctuating international oil prices are the primary drivers.

Pro Tip: Consider carpooling, using public transport, or adopting fuel-efficient driving habits to minimize the impact of rising fuel costs.

Stay informed about the latest developments in the energy sector by subscribing to our newsletter and following our coverage. Share your thoughts on how rising fuel prices are affecting you in the comments below!

The Future of European Rail: Beyond Funding, Towards Integration

The European Commission’s proposal to increase the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) budget to €51.5 billion for 2028-2034 signals a commitment to infrastructure development. However, with the estimated cost of completing the core Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) reaching approximately €515 billion, a tenfold increase in funding needs, the focus is shifting from simply how much is spent to how it’s spent.

The Shifting Landscape of Infrastructure Funding

A key change in the proposed framework separates CEF Transport funding for international and cross-border projects from national and regional partnership plans covering internal network sections. While seemingly logical – Brussels funds connections between nations, and member states manage their own networks – this division introduces significant risks. Member states, prioritizing domestic concerns like energy or defense, might postpone investments in their national TEN-T sections.

Without these crucial national links, cross-border projects risk becoming isolated, well-funded but ultimately ineffective “infrastructure islands.” True European rail integration demands technical and operational continuity along entire routes, not just impressive border crossings.

Defining “Cross-Border”: A Critical Challenge

The definition of a “cross-border project” itself is under scrutiny. Clarity is needed to prevent funds from being diverted to projects with predominantly national interests. Limiting cross-border projects to mere border segments is insufficient. To maximize impact, these sections must connect to major urban centers, ensuring they serve real transportation needs.

For example, proposals like a Stockholm–Turku–Helsinki connection lacking a direct land link raise questions about viability. Prioritizing projects like Rail Nordica, which offer genuine connectivity, is crucial. The core issue is control of the agenda: a clearly defined project list is essential to prevent budget fragmentation.

Megaprojects and Funding Allocation

The allocation of funds is similarly impacted by large-scale projects. Currently, Rail Baltica absorbs approximately 20% of CEF Transport funds allocated to the rail sector. Reducing the maximum co-financing rate for projects in cohesion countries – from 80% to 75% – could potentially free up resources for a wider range of initiatives. While a 5% difference may seem small, it can have a substantial impact on projects with multi-billion euro price tags.

Changes to already-funded projects also pose a risk. The relocation of a station on the Porto–Lisbon high-speed line from a central to a peripheral location, for instance, threatens the project’s timeline and potential ridership. CEF 3 should prioritize mature, ready-to-implement projects, avoiding concepts that remain politically or technically unstable.

Balancing Geographical Priorities and Military Mobility

The CEF 3 budget must balance civil transport needs with the demands of military mobility. Currently, 44% of EU contributions to military mobility initiatives are concentrated in Germany, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. While strengthening the East-West corridor is strategically crucial, Southern Europe risks being underfunded in civil transport. Establishing four priority military corridors in conjunction with NATO aims to address this imbalance, but geopolitical pressures remain strong.

CEF Transport, becomes a vital tool for maintaining investment balance and upholding the original objective: the cohesion of the European transport network.

Looking Ahead: Key Priorities for CEF 3

Doubling CEF resources is a positive step, but insufficient to complete the core TEN-T network. The critical debate now centers on:

Clearly defining “cross-border projects” to ensure genuine international connectivity.
Protecting the budget from large-scale projects that could limit flexibility.
Selecting only mature projects ready for immediate implementation.
Achieving geographical balance between Eastern, Western, and Southern Europe.

Without strict criteria and robust oversight, CEF 3 risks becoming a fragmented instrument, funding scattered interests rather than fostering a truly integrated European rail network. At a time when rail transport is essential for both climate transition and strategic security, Europe cannot afford inconsistent investments.

Did you know?

The Connecting Europe Facility also supports innovation in the transport system, aiming to improve infrastructure utilization, reduce environmental impact, enhance energy efficiency, and increase safety.

Pro Tip:

Stay informed about upcoming CEF calls for proposals by regularly visiting the European Commission’s funding and tenders portal: https://commission.europa.eu/funding-tenders/find-funding/eu-funding-programmes/connecting-europe-facility_en

FAQ

What is the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF)? The CEF is an EU funding instrument for strategic investment in transport, energy, and digital infrastructure.
What is the TEN-T network? The Trans-European Transport Network is a Europe-wide network of roads, rail lines, ports, and airports.
What is the main challenge facing CEF funding? The estimated cost of completing the TEN-T network significantly exceeds the available CEF budget.
What is the risk of separating CEF funding from national plans? National sections of the TEN-T network may be postponed if member states prioritize other investments.

Explore more insights into European rail infrastructure and policy on RailwayPro.

Fuel prices in South Africa set for steep increase in May