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How Trump’s ‘America First’ Policy Fuels China’s Rise

by Chief Editor July 6, 2026
written by Chief Editor

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US foreign policy is transitioning toward a framework of “pragmatic realism” that prioritizes American power and a repositioning within a multipolar world, according to Wu Xinbo. Wu, the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, suggests this shift will lead to China-US relations defined by “process management” and “dynamic stability.”

What defines the shift toward pragmatic realism?

Wu Xinbo states that a second Trump administration would likely see Washington redefining its foreign policy goals. Rather than adhering to previous ideological frameworks, the United States would base its objectives on its actual capacity for power. This involves a fundamental redesign of America’s foreign strategy to better suit a multipolar global environment.

What defines the shift toward pragmatic realism?

According to Wu, this transition represents an important period of adjustment for the United States. As the nation approaches its 250th anniversary, its strategy is being recalculated to find an appropriate position in a world where power is no longer concentrated in a single center.

Did you know?
Wu Xinbo is a leading Chinese researcher on the United States and currently serves as the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

How will China-US relations evolve?

The relationship between the two nations is expected to move toward “dynamic stability,” Wu says. This follows a period of intense maneuvering between Washington and Beijing over the past year. Instead of seeking total alignment or outright conflict, Wu suggests the two sides may focus on “process management” to maintain a predictable relationship.

Business leaders looking for stability in US-China relations: Political risk expert

This shift is driven by the Trump administration’s overall realist foreign policy mindset. This mindset seeks to manage the complexities of the bilateral relationship through practical, power-based interactions rather than purely diplomatic or ideological ones.

The impact of a multipolar world

The move toward pragmatic realism is closely tied to the changing structure of global power. Wu notes that the US is seeking a “more appropriate repositioning” as the world moves away from unipolarity. In this context, US foreign policy is no longer just about maintaining a single standard of global leadership, but about managing interests within a competitive, multipolar landscape.

Pro Tip for Analysts: When tracking bilateral relations, watch for “process management” indicators—such

July 6, 2026 0 comments
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World

Undersea Cables: The New US-China Frontline

by Chief Editor June 24, 2026
written by Chief Editor

The strategic rivalry between the United States and China has shifted from land and air to the ocean floor, where undersea cables now serve as the primary infrastructure for 95% to 99% of global internet traffic. According to ThinkChina and recent reports from Reuters, this competition for “data highways” is evolving from a commercial market battle into a high-stakes struggle for digital sovereignty, security standards, and control over global financial transactions worth over US$10 trillion daily.

Why is the undersea cable market a new geopolitical frontier?

Undersea cables are no longer just commercial assets; they are now critical infrastructure where national security and geopolitics intersect. According to Su Tzu-yun, director at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, the market is increasingly defined by bloc-based rivalry. While the US focuses on security screenings and leveraging alliances to exclude Chinese firms, China utilizes its Digital Silk Road initiative to provide low-cost, end-to-end solutions to nations across the Global South. The shift is evident in project rerouting, such as the SeaMeWe-6 cable, which saw contracts move from Chinese suppliers to US-based SubCom following intense lobbying.

Did you know?
The undersea cable hardware market is projected to grow from roughly US$20 billion in 2026 to US$55 billion by 2034, driven largely by the massive data demands of artificial intelligence.

How are US and Chinese companies competing for market share?

The global undersea cable market has historically been dominated by a small group of Western and Japanese firms, but Chinese participation has grown significantly. Ding Gang of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies notes that four countries—the US, Japan, France, and China—control nearly 90% of the market. US firms currently hold over 30% of the share, while China’s HMN Tech has captured approximately 15% and continues to expand. Despite US sanctions on Huawei in 2019, which led to the divestment and rebranding of its submarine cable division, HMN Tech has successfully undertaken 140 projects across 70 countries, according to a 2025 report from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology.

What are the risks of a “split” internet?

While geopolitical tensions rise, experts argue that the internet remains a physically integrated global entity. Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University of China, maintains that splitting the internet into opposing blocs is technically difficult due to the interconnected nature of global infrastructure. However, trust is declining. Following the Edward Snowden revelations regarding the PRISM surveillance program, many nations have sought to bypass US-centric infrastructure, viewing it as a potential vector for data collection. This desire for digital independence has fueled the growth of non-Western infrastructure projects.

How are nations preparing for undersea infrastructure conflicts?

The protection of cables has become a major concern as undersea lines are increasingly viewed as targets in “grey-zone” conflicts. Recent incidents in the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, and near the Taiwan Strait have highlighted the vulnerability of these assets. According to reports from the Shangri-La Dialogue, 17 nations have issued “Guiding Principles for Underwater Infrastructure Defence Exchanges.” Notably, both the US and China declined to participate in this framework. Instead, the US, UK, and Australia have turned to the AUKUS partnership to develop uncrewed undersea vehicle technology, a move widely interpreted by analysts as a strategic effort to counter Chinese naval and intelligence operations.

How are nations preparing for undersea infrastructure conflicts?

Frequently Asked Questions

Are undersea cables easily damaged?
Yes. Cable breaks are common due to anchor drags or natural events, but recent geopolitical tensions have raised concerns about intentional sabotage in the event of a crisis.

Can a country “turn off” the internet for another?
Because the internet is a decentralized network of networks, it is difficult to shut down entirely, though countries can restrict access at landing stations or through domestic firewall policies.

Why is the US restricting Chinese cable companies?
Citing national security and data privacy, the US Federal Communications Commission has begun tightening licensing requirements to ensure that sensitive communications infrastructure remains under the control of “trusted” technology partners.

Interested in the future of global infrastructure? Subscribe to our weekly newsletter for deep dives into the intersection of technology and international policy.

June 24, 2026 0 comments
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World

Trump-Lai Call: Risks of US-China Turbulence

by Chief Editor May 21, 2026
written by Chief Editor

The High-Stakes Diplomacy of the Taiwan Strait

The geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific is shifting once again. Recent remarks by US President Donald Trump regarding a potential direct dialogue with Taiwan’s leader, William Lai Ching-te, have sent ripples through international capitals. While the prospect of a phone call may seem like a simple diplomatic gesture, in the context of US-China relations, it represents a potential “red line” that tests the fragile consensus established during the recent Beijing summit.

Navigating the “One China” Delicate Balance

Beijing’s reaction to the possibility of a Trump-Lai conversation has been swift and firm. Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun reiterated that China’s opposition to official exchanges between Washington and Taiwan remains a cornerstone of its foreign policy. For China, Taiwan is not merely a diplomatic partner but a core territorial interest.

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Did you know?

The “One China” policy has been the bedrock of US-China relations for decades. Any deviation from this framework—such as high-level official contact—is viewed by Beijing as a direct challenge to its sovereignty.

Why a Potential Call Matters for Global Markets

Markets thrive on predictability, and the Taiwan Strait is currently a focal point of global uncertainty. If the US administration were to pursue a more direct line of communication with Taipei, it could trigger a recalibration of trade policies and diplomatic maneuvers across the Pacific.

Donald Trump Taiwan Comments Raise New Questions Over China Strategy
  • Supply Chain Volatility: Taiwan is the world’s leading producer of advanced semiconductors. Any escalation in cross-strait tensions often impacts tech stock valuations globally.
  • Strategic Autonomy: Countries in Southeast Asia and the Pacific are watching closely to see how the US balances its commitment to democracy in Taiwan against the necessity of maintaining a working relationship with China.

The Analyst Perspective: Rhetoric vs. Reality

Most experts suggest that while the rhetoric is heating up, a formal, high-level diplomatic shift remains unlikely in the short term. The recent summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping was intended to stabilize a relationship that had been fraught with tension. Analysts argue that both sides are currently focused on “prudently” managing the Taiwan issue to prevent it from derailing broader economic and security agreements.

Pro Tip:

When tracking geopolitical risks, look beyond the headlines. Monitor official statements from ministries rather than speculative social media discourse to understand the actual diplomatic temperature.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why does Beijing care about a call between the US and Taiwan?
A: Beijing considers Taiwan to be a province of China. Official calls are viewed as a recognition of Taiwan’s statehood, which undermines the “One China” policy.

Frequently Asked Questions
Donald Trump William Lai side

Q: Is a military conflict likely in the Taiwan Strait?
A: While tensions are high, most experts view conflict as a last resort. The focus remains on economic statecraft and diplomatic maneuvering.

Q: How does this affect global business?
A: Increased tension can lead to sanctions, export controls, and supply chain disruptions, particularly in the semiconductor and manufacturing sectors.

Looking Ahead: A New Era of Strategic Competition

As we move further into 2026, the challenge for the US administration will be to maintain its strategic partnerships in Asia without inciting unnecessary friction with Beijing. The ability to navigate these “red lines” will define the success of current foreign policy initiatives.

What do you think is the most likely outcome for US-Taiwan relations in the coming year? Share your thoughts in the comments below or subscribe to our weekly intelligence briefing to stay ahead of the curve.

May 21, 2026 0 comments
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