Ambivalence and Arms: Trump’s Approach to Taiwan Ahead of Xi Summit

President Donald Trump is preparing for a summit this week with Chinese President Xi Jinping amid growing questions regarding the United States’ commitment to Taiwan. While the administration has authorized record-breaking military sales, the president’s rhetoric has signaled a shift toward a more transactional relationship with the island democracy.

The Paradox of Military Support

White House officials have highlighted that President Trump has approved more military sales for Taiwan in the first year of his second term than the approximately $8.4 billion approved by former President Joe Biden during his four-year tenure. This includes $330 million for aircraft parts approved in November and an $11 billion arms package authorized in December—the largest weapons sale ever to the island.

However, these figures contrast with a lack of progress on delivery. President Trump has acknowledged discussing the $11 billion sale with President Xi and has expressed dissatisfaction with Taiwan, claiming the island “stole” the American semiconductor business and suggesting that Taiwan should pay the U.S. For protection.

Economic Pressure and Domestic Friction

The administration has utilized the threat of hefty tariffs to push Taipei toward massive investments in U.S. Semiconductor manufacturing and the purchase of billions of dollars in crude oil and liquefied natural gas. This pressure extends to Taiwan’s own defense spending; while Taiwanese lawmakers recently approved $25 billion in arms purchases, the amount fell short of the $40 billion proposal put forward by Taiwan President Lai Ching-te.

A senior Trump administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, described the parliament’s failure to fully fund President Lai’s proposal as “disappointing.”

Diplomatic Tension and Policy Ambiguity

As the summit approaches, the two superpowers are signaling different priorities:

• China: Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged the U.S. To “make the right choices” regarding Taiwan to safeguard stability between the two nations.
• United States: Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that U.S. Policy remains unchanged, asserting that any “forced or compelled change” in the situation would be “destabilizing to the world.”

Historically, the U.S. Has maintained a posture of ambiguity, acknowledging Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China without explicitly endorsing it, while opposing unilateral changes to the status quo.

Expert Analysis: Leverage vs. Risk

Analysts are divided on whether President Trump’s transactional nature poses a risk to Taiwan’s security. Retired U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies expressed concern that a “transactional opportunity could arise,” potentially leaving Taipei “on the menu” during talks.

Similarly, Patricia Kim of the Brookings Institution’s Assessing China Project warned that the president might make “off-the-cuff” remarks that could blur the lines of longstanding, nuanced policy language. This speculation is further fueled by the 2026 U.S. National Defense Strategy, which omitted any direct mention of the island.

Conversely, some experts see strategic safeguards in place:

• Economic Interdependence: Lev Nachman, a professor at National Taiwan University, suggests Taiwan’s role in U.S. Economic growth via the semiconductor sector is a “silver lining” that may prevent drastic policy changes.
• Strategic Leverage: Edgard Kagan, a former senior State Department official and current chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, argues that the president understands how to use leverage and is unlikely to “sacrifice” U.S. Interests in Taiwan for other trades.

Potential Outcomes and Next Steps

The results of the summit may be judged primarily by the public statements issued by Trump and Xi. While President Trump stated on Monday that he is confident President Xi will not take military action against Taiwan under his watch, he also admitted that he expects Xi to ask him to hold back on arming the island.

Possible scenarios following the summit include:

• Minimal Public Mention: Analysts suggest a “best-case scenario” for Taiwan would be for the island to be discussed minimally or not at all in public statements.
• Informal Policy Shifts: There is a possibility that President Xi could persuade the U.S. To loosen ties through informal limits on official visits or curbs on arms sales.
• Continued Ambiguity: The U.S. May maintain its current posture, continuing to provide arms while using them as leverage in broader negotiations with Beijing.