A cold front is moving onto New Zealand’s North Island this morning, bringing strong northwesterly winds, a period of rain and a sharp drop in temperatures that could see many towns only reach 16 °C tomorrow.
Rainfall and cooling shift
MetService forecaster Juliane Bergdolt told the Herald that rain will begin for Wellington just before midday, with the front travelling quickly across the North Island. Mid‑afternoon showers are expected from Hawke’s Bay up to Auckland and Northland, followed by rapid clearing.
While the heavier rain will move out, lighter showers are forecast to linger into the following day. MetService noted the rain will be welcomed after recent hot, dry conditions that imposed water restrictions and raised fire risk in areas such as Hawke’s Bay.
MetService meteorologist Devlin Lynden said the front will also drive a “variable, unsettled and showery weather pattern,” causing daytime highs to plunge this week. After a sizzling week—Auckland hit 28 °C, Napier Airport 34 °C and Wairoa 32 °C—many locations are expected to stay below 20 °C on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Places such as Dannevirke, Wellington, Ashburton, Ōamaru and Invercargill are projected to top out at only 16 °C on Wednesday, as the southwesterlies keep temperatures capped.
Watches and warnings
A heavy rain watch is active for several districts this morning. The Grey District is under a watch until 6 am, the Tasman District west of Tākaka until 11 am, the Buller District until 10 am, and the Richmond and Bryant Ranges—including Rai Valley—until noon.
Potential next‑step scenarios
- If the front maintains its strength, further rain showers could persist into Thursday, extending the cool spell.
- Should the front weaken earlier than expected, temperatures might recover slightly, allowing daytime highs to creep back toward the low‑20s.
- Continued unsettled weather could influence the forthcoming Christmas forecast, making a “white Christmas” unlikely but leaving the exact conditions open to change.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will the rain start in Wellington?
Rain is expected to begin just before midday, according to MetService forecaster Juliane Bergdolt.
How low could temperatures get this week?
Some towns are projected to reach only 16 °C tomorrow, with places like Wellington and Invercargill expected to top out at that temperature on Wednesday.
What areas are under a heavy rain watch?
The Grey District (until 6 am), Tasman District west of Tākaka (until 11 am), Buller District (until 10 am), and the Richmond and Bryant Ranges—including Rai Valley—(until noon) are currently under a heavy rain watch.
How are you preparing for the cooler, wetter weather this weekend?
