Doctors, representatives of authorities of most countries and experts are sure: the world and Russia is waiting for the second wave of the coronavirus with due to quarantines, restrictions, closure of borders. The only question is, what will be the mortality in this new tsunami. As social networks go to various quotes with forecasts of between 1% and 35% to almost 90% of cases.
The main questions are three:
- whether there will be a lethal mutation (for example, jointly with the flu, infecting tens of millions of inhabitants of the Earth);
- how to continue to be the economies of different countries;
- what behavior to choose ordinary people in the case of “easiest” and “hardest” of the second wave of coronavirus.
Known in Japan infectious disease physician Akihiro Sato said the probability of a second wave of coronavirus infection is approximately 90%.
A similar opinion is shared by representatives of the world medical community and the authorities in Russia and abroad, and virologists, including the military. Moreover, some media suggest that the “second wave” of coronavirus has already been launched in China and several European States.
When waiting for a second wave of coronavirus
The General opinion is that this attack can come to Russia (even in the case of closed boundaries) from late July-August until late autumn.
“One of the most likely scenarios is the second wave in the period of the rise in acute respiratory viral infections, it is quite possible that coronavirus will rise in the autumn”, — said earlier the head of Rospotrebnadzor Anna Popovaadding that, in her opinion, “the disease in the second wave will be heavy.”
That a new outbreak of the “crown” the country will meet in the autumn, and said Vladimir Putin.
“In the United States predict the coming of the second wave in the winter, during seasonal outbreaks of influenza. And the consequences of the second flash can be stronger than the first, as it will lead to unimaginable burden on the health care system” — warned the Director of the Center for control and prevention of diseases Robert Redfield.
Salvation, in fact, only one — the curethat can defeat the current COVID-19, and mutated (possible) form, and the vaccine must accept all the citizens of all countries of the world.
What could be deaths from the second wave of coronavirus?
Variants a little:
- Minimum mortality comparable to COVID-19 or less (1-5%).
- The mortality rate is higher than the COVID-19, but not much (3-10%).
- High mortality — up to 35% of cases.
- Tragic pandemic — mortality of more than 50%.
“After the coronavirus we are waiting for this terrible epidemic. The pandemic — only doctrine,” said media chief physician GKB 71 Alexander Butchersadding: “we expect a serious epidemic with a mortality rate of 30-35 percent. The most dangerous place, where the chances to get infected are hospital”.
In his opinion, before the emergence of influenza with a high mortality rate — only two mutations. The first mutation when the virus from pigs or birds will get to the person. And a second mutation when it is transmitted from person to person.
The press also recalls that in November 2019 at the Johns Hopkins University was held a closed-door seminar, which “dismantled” and simulated future epidemic.
According to first estimates, the new “Spanish flu” may be a combination of “swine flu + coronavirus”, which in the experiment occurs in a conditional and Brazil affects two thirds of humanity.
“The loss of 65 million lives and $ 700 billion. This training scenario was played”, — noted journalists.
To believe in the panic posts and quotes from social networks can not
For example, the instant messenger goes to the fake that the doctors are waiting for the second wave of coronavirus with mortality of 90%. This hearing arising from the erroneous perception of the forecast, “the second wave will occur with a probability of 90%” and the widespread video of Thriller, in which the artificially derived coronavirus-weapons can kill 90% of the population.
Also telegram-channel “Smile” reports: evidence that mortality from a mutated coronavirus COVID-19 up to 45% absolutely not supported by any research and (so far) are only the concerns of a number of Chinese experts. The authors refer to Chinese instant messenger WeChat.
“The second wave will be exactly, and in many countries, in remote regions has not ended yet first. Don’t believe those who predict mortality in advance, it’s the people who want the hype and attention. No one knows how to behave “crown” under the vaccine which mutations are possible, as will be combined coronavirus with seasonal diseases such as influenza and SARS,” said virologist-infectious disease Alexandrov.
“We hope that the vaccine would be rapidly developed, universal applied and will not “side effects” that are produced and population immunity and sustain health systems of different countries. But this virus is with us for a long time, if not forever,” he added.
Three ways of salvation from the “second wave”
Also the medic refused to advise any of the strategy, stating that it is not ready to take on this responsibility, but explained that he had heard about the three recovery options from the second wave “, even in the event the high, or tragic fatality”.
The main method is vaccinationthat will help pass the peak incidence with minimal loss. The second method is karantinirovanija cities, regions and countrieswith a rigid, “as in China,” measures of restrictions on contacts between the population.
“As you like to refer to the Soviet Union, but in Soviet times harsh and even cruel measures stopped the epidemic of cholera, smallpox, typhoid. In particular, even Moscow was closed, and contacts for smallpox had been raided and observeability KGB. In the end a terrible epidemic did not happen”, — says the expert.
Option with “escape to the country, in the village enclaves” the medic considers ambiguous. “Suppose a man went to the Crimea and Kaliningrad, which are easily scarantino, limiting air, auto and train message. There are fewer opportunities to become infected, if they manage to quell the first outbreaks, but let’s face it — capital medicine is better, although everywhere have everything “ready,” he said.
“Life in the country or in the village is good, but if you turn down the pump, to fix it will arrive the repairman, who can be a carrier, and meet all be in the same grocery store, village shop, which could be the point spread of the virus.
So if the person is not a prepper with arms where necessary, supply of food and goods for a year and farm — chickens, potatoes, cows, etc. — it will be far enough away from the city of medicine and in the unusual, though more comfortable (than in a small city apartment) conditions,” — said the expert.
“Conclusion. As it silly sounds, but listen to professionals, doctors and government. To comply with sanitary norms. To be ready to quarantine financially and morally. And you know, now is not the Middle ages with the plague, medicine knows a lot of hityk, we are trying to protect themselves and all”, – concluded the doctor.
While economists and financiers, that is, “grab his head”, imagining what a shock, the second wave of the coronavirus with any mortality will cause the Russian (and world) economy. As for business, the economy and ordinary Russians have hit the “first wave”, we all see, and many — unfortunately — on your wallet.
But that’s another story…