High numbers of infections: Statisticians explain what’s going wrong in Bavaria

When it’s about strict and fast, Bavaria is always way ahead when it comes to corona measures. Nevertheless, the state currently has the highest numbers of new infections every day – and Munich is the first metropolis in Germany to exceed the critical mark of 50 per 100,000. Does that mean that mask requirements and testing are useless? Helmut Küchenhoff, head of the statistical consulting laboratory at the Ludwig Maximilians University in Munich, explains the figures and what is behind the “nowcasting”.

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8 Months of the Spread of the Corona Virus, What Have We Learned? All pages

KOMPAS.comCorona virus SARS-CoV-2 as a cause of disease Covid-19 is still being studied today.

Moreover, its spread is still increasing every day in a number of countries in the world.

Until now, nearly 25 million people are infected with this disease, which attacks many of the respiratory organs.

For almost 8 months since it was reported in early January 2020, researchers are still continuing to gather about the disease.

Starting from the mode of transmission, symptoms, effects, vaccines and effective treatments to cure it.

While much remains unknown about this virus and disease, there are at least some understandable things about it corona virus This Covid-19.

Also read: 77,266 Cases in a Day, What’s the Condition of the Corona Pandemic in India?

Here are seven things you can learn about viruses corona so far:

1. Reinfection of the corona virus

Researchers in Hong Kong claim to have the first evidence of someone re-infected with the virus.

Dr. Anthony Cardillo, CEO of Mend Urgent Care and ER doctor, said that a person can be 100 percent reoculated with Covid-19.

“What is not known about Covid-19 is whether the first infection you have provides immunity to this second infection? Nobody knows the answer to that question,” Cardillo said quoted from abc7.com (28/8/2020).

The technical leader for Covid-19 from the World Health Organization (WHO), Maria Van Kerkhove said that re-infection is still possible.

Even though someone who has recovered from Covid-19 already has its own antibodies in his body.

According to him, as quoted by Fox News, it is not certain how strong the body’s immune system is from the corona virus and how long it will last.

Also read: A record of 3,003 daily Covid-19 cases, these are 5 provinces with the highest and lowest cases

2. Symptoms for a long time

“There are many studies in several countries that show that weeks to months later, patients still experience symptoms such as shortness of breath, numbness and tingling in their extremities, their arms or legs,” said Dr. Michael Daignault, emergency room doctor at Providence St. Joseph Medical Center.

3. Children can catch and spread Covid-19

So far, the corona virus is more common and susceptible to infecting people over 60 years of age.

This includes patients with comorbid or congenital diseases such as diabetes, hypertension and heart disease.

But with Covid-19, children can catch the coronavirus and spread it, but there are many things that are not yet known.

“Children aged 10 to 11 years and over can spread the virus as well as adults,” said Dr. Rishma Chand, pediatrician at Dignity Health Northridge Hospital.

“We don’t know much about the infection and the younger children,” he said.

Chand said the most common symptoms reported in children were fever and cough.

Also read: Corona Virus Reinfection Cases in Recovering Patients, This is the Explanation of WHO

4. You can test positive after recovering from Covid-19

Doctors said patients could still test positive for Covid-19 after recovering from symptoms of the virus.

Research shows that the most common method of transmission is via respiratory droplets, such as coughing or sneezing.

Dr. Cardillo ensures that Covid-19 can be transmitted by touching a surface and then touching your face.

“This test is sensitive for the virus’ mRNA,” said Daignault.

“So it’s just a fragment of the virus left in the nose in the mouth that doesn’t indicate that the patient is still infected or catching the virus.”

5. Viruses survive on the surface of objects

A number of studies at the beginning of the pandemic stated that the corona virus can survive a certain time on the surface of objects.

However, the method of transmitting the corona virus by touching the surface of the object with the virus is considered not the main one.

“It’s impossible to get infected like that because person-to-person contact is a risk of droplet transmission, but both are modes of transmission of the virus,” Cardillo said.

Also read: This is a place that could trigger the emergence of the Corona Virus cluster according to WHO

6. Antibody testing has not been reliable

Doctors say the reliability of the antibody virus test is still less accurate than the swab or PCR.

“The usefulness of antibody testing is limited,” says Daignault.

“It’s great if you do it immediately after infection. But if you do it two or three months later and you don’t have antibodies in your test, it’s not,” he explained.

7. Vaccines are in process

In early August, Russia claimed to release coronavirus vaccine first. Despite this the international medical community is still skeptical.

In America, Dr. Cardillo said there are six strong competitors currently undergoing phase three of clinical trials.

“They’re enrolling tens of thousands of people, they’re all getting vaccinated now, and we’re watching to see who is infected and watching how many of those vaccinated are very sick versus just mildly ill,” said Dr. Cardillo.

Dr. Cardillo expects a vaccine in America in January or February 2021.

Also read: WHO Recommends Covid-19 Test in People Without Symptoms, Here’s the Reason

Still will be studied

Meanwhile, an epidemiologist from Griffith University, Dicky Budiman, said the research would continue until all the lines of information needed regarding Covid-19 were fulfilled and answered.

Starting from how the virus survives, infects humans, how humans respond to viral infections, and how the virus is transmitted from one person to another takes place.

“Then how does this virus react in the human body in the short to long term and what is the mechanism of action of this virus in infecting humans so that we can know the strategy, which is linked to the discovery of definitive drugs and vaccines,” said Dicky. Kompas.com, Friday (28/8/2020) afternoon.

If all these things have been found, then according to him, information about one disease is relatively well established, in this case Covid-19.

“Among other things, how many virus particles can infect, we don’t know yet. Then we don’t know all of the long-term and medium-term impacts of this virus,” explained Dicky.

“And also the ability of this virus to ‘trick’ our body’s defense cells is also partially known,” he continued.

Also read: List of 32 Regions in Indonesia with High Risk Status for Covid-19

Therefore, Dicky said a lot of research was still needed in order to know the complete and complete characteristics of the corona virus.

“So this will continue to need to be researched. I predict that maybe we can only find out about this until next year. At least we can start to know more, almost all of them know about the pattern, and how the impact of the Sars-CoV-2 virus in infecting humans.

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Epidemiologist The value of handling the Indonesian pandemic does not comply with standards

Jakarta, Nusantaratv.com – The Indonesian Epidemiologists Association (PAEI) views the government’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic from the outset as ineffective.

According to them, many things are considered not in accordance with standard methods of handling the corona virus outbreak.

Also read: Contracting Covid-19, Novel Attack Prosecutor Dies

This was conveyed by PAEI to Minister of Health Terawan Agus Putranto through a letter they sent.

“It is necessary to increase the number of suspects tested in accordance with comprehensive surveillance methods through contact tracing and surveillance of suspects to improve the performance of case finding on target,” PAEI stated, Monday (17/8/2020).

“The Ministry of Health should immediately conduct a comprehensive evaluation and determine the next steps so that this pandemic can be controlled according to standard epidemiological methodologies,” added PAEI’s statement.

PEAI has made the government pay attention to the death rate of Covid-19 cases in the country. Because the numbers are quite high, and there is no sign that the pandemic will end.

“The results of the epidemiological analysis show that the pandemic period which lasted for more than five months has no signs of ending. Even in the last two weeks of August, cases have continued to increase in several areas,” said PAEI.

“Since the initial case was announced by the President of the Republic of Indonesia on March 2, 2020, the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 up to August 16, 2020 was 137,468 with a death of 6,071 (CFR 4.4 percent) with a cure of 66.4 percent. CFR Indonesia 2.2 times. higher than Southeast Asia, “added PAEI. (Seconds)

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Coronavirus pandemic. Most relevant as of August 16 :: Society :: RBC

When the mass vaccination against COVID-19 begins in Russia, 21.5 million people have become infected with the coronavirus in the world; the main thing is in the RBC review

Coronavirus

Russia Moscow World

0 (per day)

Recovered

0

0 (per day)

Got infected

0

0 (per day)

Died

0 (per day)

Recovered

0

0 (per day)

Got infected

0

0 (per day)

Died

0 (per day)

Recovered

0

0 (per day)

Got infected

0

0 (per day)

Died

Source: JHU,
federal and regional
virus control headquarters

Source: JHU, federal and regional virus headquarters

Situation in Russia

The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus infection exceeded 922 thousand (plus 4969 per day). In total, 15 685 people died from COVID-19 in the country (plus 68 per day). More than 732 thousand people have recovered since the beginning of the epidemic.

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In Russia, 5057 new cases of coronavirus were detected per day :: Society :: RBC

The total number of infected people exceeded 907 thousand. Over the past 24 hours, no COVID-19 cases were found in two Russian regions – the Nenets and Chukotka Autonomous Districts

Photo: Valery Matytsin / TASS

Over the past day, 5,057 new cases of coronavirus infection COVID-19 have been identified in Russia, according to the operational headquarters to combat the disease.

The total number of infected people as of August 13 was 907,758.

According to the headquarters, over the past 24 hours, cases were registered in 83 regions of the country. At the same time, 1.3 thousand people (26.3%) do not have clinical manifestations of the disease.


In Russia, 124 people died from COVID-19 per day


Photo: Elena Afonina / TASS

In Moscow, 692 cases of infection were detected, in total, since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, 250.3 thousand people have been confirmed. In second place in terms of the number of infected per day is the Sverdlovsk region (162 people, 22.9 thousand in total), in third – St. Petersburg (160, 33.5 thousand in total).

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very cheap and long-known drugs help save the lungs with coronavirus

Cloving hospital on the basis of the Medical Scientific and Educational Center (ISSC) Moscow State University named after M.V.Lomonosov took the first patients on April 21 and completed his work on June 13. It turned out that it was possible to achieve the best treatment results for COVID-19 in Moscow. Over the entire period, 4 patients died, and among severe patients who got mechanical ventilation, the mortality rate was less than 14% (for comparison, the average for the city and the world was up to 70 – 80%). Eighteen doctors out of 220 employees of the hospital were infected with coronavirus, there were no deaths among the medical staff.

What approaches were used at the University Hospital of Moscow State University to achieve such results? We continue the conversation with the head. Department of Therapy, Faculty of Fundamental Medicine, Moscow State University, Head of the Department of Age-Associated Diseases, Medical Scientific and Educational Center, Doctor of Medical Sciences, Cardiologist Yana Orlova.

MEDICINE FOR COUGH FOR 80 RUBLES

– Most of those who are ill or are afraid to get sick are worried about fibrotic changes in their lungs. They say that you have developed special therapy that can reduce the risk of developing fibrosis. Is it possible?!

– Yes, we launched an appropriate clinical study. There are no final results yet, but we have developed clinical practice.

“What did you do to save the lungs?”

– We used a combination of bromhexine and spironolactone (both are long-known very cheap drugs. – Ed.). Bromhexine is an expectorant that has been prescribed to patients with pneumonia and cough for many years. At the same time, experimental data showed that this drug can block a specific enzyme and impede the penetration of coronavirus into cells. True, it was on this effect that we counted to a lesser extent in inpatients, since such an effect is important mainly in the early stages of the disease. But the expectorant effect of bromhexine really helps patients with COVID. I heard that our colleagues in Peter launched a study of bromhexine for prophylactic purposes. We will wait for the results.

Coronavirus infected 18 doctors from 220 employees of the hospital, there were no deaths among the medical staffPhoto: Ivan MAKEEV

FIBROSIS OBSTACLE

– The second drug – spironolactone – is traditionally widely used in cardiology for the treatment of heart failure, severe hypertension. It has a small diuretic, magnesium and potassium-preserving effect, continues Yana. Orlova. – It has several mechanisms through which it can be useful in coronavirus infection.

Firstly, a mechanism that prevents the development of fibrosis in general in the body. There are works that, in particular, show that spironolactone reduces fibrosis in the heart. At the same time, it is known that the tendency to fibrosis is not local, but systemic – where there is more inflammation, there will certainly be fibrosis. And we see, of course, fibrotic changes in the “covide” in our patients. Therefore, we prescribed spironolactone as a drug for the prevention of this process.

Secondly, this drug blocks sex hormone receptors, in particular testosterone. Some published studies suggest that “high-testosterone” men suffer from “covid” more often and develop more severe fibrotic changes. Therefore, blocking these receptors for several weeks during COVID treatment may be useful in reducing the severity of complications. We are not talking about a longer intake, since male patients are unlikely to agree with a decrease in testosterone levels in the long term.

And perhaps the most important point. In almost all of our patients, we observed hypokalemia (a decrease in potassium levels. – Ed.). With coronavirus infection, potassium is intensely excreted from the body, and scientific articles even suggest that hypokalemia serves as the trigger for a cytokine storm. So spironolactone has a real chance to reduce the risk of this dangerous complication. But the main thing, in my opinion, is that lowering the level of potassium in the body is extremely harmful to the heart and triggers life-threatening rhythm disturbances, increasing the risk of sudden death. We, like all others, replenished potassium with droppers, but it was more effective to retain it in the body with the help of spironolactone.


Men certainly get worse than women;  the elderly are heavier than the young;  overweight people are heavier than patients without excess weight Photo: Ivan MAKEEV

Men certainly get worse than women; the elderly are heavier than the young; overweight people are heavier than overweight patientsPhoto: Ivan MAKEEV

WHEN PRESCRIBED PATIENTS

– Yana Arturovna, how many patients did you have on average?

– About 10 – 14 days. But someone and 50 days.

– Have you noticed signs by which it can be assumed that the disease in the person brought is likely to go the hard way?

– Such studies were carried out in the world, our clinical practice confirmed them. Men certainly get worse than women; the elderly are heavier than the young; overweight people are heavier than overweight patients. Men with a classic male type of baldness, a lot of facial hair, we can say brutal men get sick harder.

– Under what conditions did you discharge patients?

– We acted as close as possible to the recommendations Ministry of Health: so that the temperature for three days was not higher than 37.5 degrees; so that C-reactive protein (an indicator of inflammation) is lower than 10 mg / l, and saturation, that is, the level of oxygen in the blood, is higher than 96%.

“HEAD OF EPIDEMIOLOGY DEPARTMENT OF ITSELF WORKED AT SANPROPUSNIK”

– How often do you get sick doctors and nurses?

– In the first month no one got sick at all. We have a very powerful epidemiological service. The head of the sanitary-epidemiological department, a senior researcher, correctly organized the whole process, and for the first two weeks she personally worked in the sanitary inspection room at the exit from the “red zone” and helped doctors and nurses who were exhausted after the shift safely remove protective clothing.

Then both people’s fatigue and viral load accumulated. By the middle of the second month, sick people began to appear. There were no seriously ill patients. We treated part of the staff in our observation, part of it was treated at home. In total, 18 people were infected from the medical staff (less than 10%).

– Doctors take something for prevention? Vitamins C, D, Zinc?

– I saw the recommendations of American nutritionists, they speak out positively about taking zinc, melatonin and vitamin C. There were somewhat conflicting data on vitamin D. But we did not give any such recommendations to our employees. We have all the prevention was associated with minimizing contacts and other measures of epidemiological safety.

Physicians are the heroes of our time.“If you think that you are special and that a pandemic will not affect you, you are deeply mistaken,” listen to what the doctors who are fighting with coronavirus say

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Campania, 9 new positives and one victim. Plasma therapy begins

twelve o’clockMay 13, 2020 – 8:13 am

“I’m waiting for the data with chills,” says Governor De Luca fearing negative effects of reopening. Minister Boccia also speaks of it in Benevento: «Reopen with caution, risk of outbreaks»

of ChMarasca and LuMarconi

Down the contagions in Campania. This, however, is the situation in Italy: here.


So the contagions.
There is a new victim of Coronavirus in Campania, there are 2 in 48 hours. The new positives, on the other hand, are 9 and the reassembly of the infections in the province of the former “red zone” of Ariano Irpino seems to have stopped, which in four days it counted 29 new positives and there was fear of a rekindling of outbreaks; but in the last 72 hours the count seems to slow down: on 11 May a contagion in Taurasi and 3 in Sannio (nearby Benevento), on 12 evening another 3 are confirmed by the ASL responsible for Ariano Irpino, on 13 evening a new infection is a resident of Solofra hospitalized in Moscati di Avellino. The 9 positive swabs were processed at Cotugno (1) and San Paolo (4) in Naples, Ruggi di Salerno (2), Moscati (1) and Biogem which also deals with Irpinia screening (1) but the Asl for the province confirms only one new case. Thus the contagions distributed in the provinces.

Naples: 2,549 (968 cities and 1581 province)
province of Salerno: 668
province of Avellino: 508
province of Caserta: 433
province of Benevento: 192
Others under verification Asl: 280

Victims: 394 (+1)
Healed: 2,421
(2109 totally and 312 awaiting confirmation swabs)

Boccia: «Reopen with caution, risk of outbreaks»
The reopenings from May 18 will have to be done with caution “because there is a risk of new outbreaks in the workplace” said Minister for Regional Affairs Francesco Boccia during a connection with the Southern Italy Young Entrepreneurship Day organized online by the Giustino Fortunato University of Benevento in collaboration with Confindustria. The minister spoke of the new guidelines for the reopening of bars, restaurants and hairdressers: «The goal is that of territorial differentiation, the individual Italian regions will be responsible as established by the State-Regions conference. If the infections go up, they will have to shrink. In order not to see the efforts made rest, the rest of the idea must be reopened with caution, because we could record the next outbreaks precisely in the workplace and in restaurants, bars, beauty centers that must therefore guarantee a high level of safety ».

So to Cotugno.
“The number of swabs made so far is about 130 thousand – says Maurizio Di Mauro, general manager of Cotugno -. But we don’t stop: mass screening with serological tests is starting, we are at the disposal of the Region to make the necessary contribution to eradicate a terrible disease once and for all ». Di Mauro also took stock of Cotugno, Campania’s main hub: «This morning 38 patients are hospitalized for covid19. There are only two ICU patients and the others in subintensive care and in ordinary hospital wards. We should continue to have the containment measures that we have adopted so far to avoid a recovery that would generate a dramatic situation ».

Checks on returning to the region
In the meantime, checks continue on people returning to Campania from other regions. Since May 4, 20,260, 3899 rapid tests have been performed, 333 the most reliable swabs in three positive cases.

Screening in Sannio and Irpinia
The ASL of Benevento, in collaboration with the Zooprophylactic Institute, has launched a screening of the population with campers for nose pharyngeal swabs. Any positives will be taken in charge by the Epidemiological Operational Unit and by the Special Assistance Continuity Unit (Usca). Ariano Irpino, the former “red zone”, is a “pilot area” and also a priority for serological screenings scheduled in the entire region.

May 13, 2020 | 08:13

© RESERVED REPRODUCTION

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“Not Professional” .. An epidemiologist comments on Singa’s study

2:09 a.m.

Sunday 26 April 2020

Corona … moment by moment

Corona in the world

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Is it true that nicotine users contract Covid-19 less?

Hello,

Numerous case studies demonstrate this unequivocal : smokers who get Covid-19 have a risk greatly increased to develop severe forms of the disease. In this work, we find that the proportion of smokers is two to four times higher in severely ill patients than in those with a moderate form of the disease.

On the other hand, several publications relayed since the beginning of April report a counterintuitive phenomenon: in several countries, the proportion of smokers infected with SARS-CoV-2 would be lower than the proportion of smokers at regional or national level. The Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, recently mentioned this data.

In France, works being published conducted on a limited number of patients at the Pitié-Salpétrière, as well as a study in a school environment in Crépy-en-Valois (prepublished this April 23), also reported this statistical trend.

Many potential limits

Note now that the link between smoking status and propensity to be infected does not appear in all research. So in a recent study published in the Jama, involving 5,700 New York patients hospitalized for Covid-19, the proportion of smokers was analogous to that observed in the regional population.

The first studies were met with skepticism, not without reason. Indeed, many of these works have sometimes significant biases.

First limitation present in all studies (with the exception of French studies): the age parameter of hospitalized patients. Indeed, a significant proportion of patients with severe forms of Covid-19 are over the age of 65. The prevalence of smokers decreases very strongly with age (for example, in France, 65-75 year olds smoke 2.5 times less than the general population).

In the study conducted at Pitié-Salpêtrière, taking into account the age and sex of the patients, smokers nevertheless appeared to be four times less likely than non-smokers to be Covid +. A rate observed both in hospitalized patients and in patients treated on an outpatient basis. However, in order to draw more solid conclusions, these results should have been put into perspective with the smoking profile of patients who usually attend this hospital, at the same periods in previous years.

Another parameter that seems to be excluded from most analyzes: the socio-economic profile of the groups studied, which can strongly influence the expected proportion of smokers. A limitation mentioned by the authors of the French study, who established their calculations “Assuming that the population studied who lives in a limited area around a Parisian hospital has the same smoking habits as the French population in general”, and who note that “Healthcare workers were overrepresented in the outpatient group due to routine workplace testing when they became symptomatic”. The study conducted at Crépy-en-Valois seems to take this parameter into account. And its results are consistent with the Pitié Salpêtrière study.

Third important pitfall: the quality of the information collected is not always there … far from it. In some studies used by epidemiologists to conduct their analyzes, the smoking status of the sickest Covid + patients was simply not informed. Commentators have also noted that one of these studies considered individuals to be “non-smokers” less than 30 packages per year – preventing any comparison with national statistics which relate to all cigarette consumers.

For its part, the study conducted at Pitié-Salpêtrière seems to consider as “former smoker” any person who had quit smoking at the time of his hospitalization … without mentioning the hypothesis that patients may have stopped smoking because of the first Covid-19 symptoms! A point which would considerably influence the results. Requested by CheckNews, Zahir Amoura, author of this work, has not yet commented on this point.

Is the phenomenon biologically plausible?

The interpretation of these statistics, as well as the extent of the associated phenomenon, are still questionable.

Researchers, however, have begun to explore the hypothesis of a direct causal link between smoking status and primary SARS-CoV-2 infection. The question arises indeed: from a physiological point of view, is it plausible that lungs exposed to tobacco are less permeable to this coronavirus? Could nicotine be involved in the phenomenon?

A possible link with the ACE2 receiver?

SARS-CoV-2 infects cells by binding to the ACE2 receptor, abundant on the surface, in particular, the cells of the mucous membranes and the alveolar pulmonary tissue. The expression of the gene corresponding to ACE2 is not identical in smokers and in non-smokers. Based on animal models, smokers have long been considered to express less ACE2 – which suggests a simple explanation for the phenomenon: less ACE2 induces a lower propensity for infection.

But recent data, which seem to be corroborated by new researchsuggest that in humans, smoking is associated with a higher expression of ACE2. A higher propensity for coronavirus infection would therefore be expected. The epidemiological observations mentioned above, suggesting a protective effect of tobacco, would therefore raise a paradox.

Several explanatory hypotheses have been formulated. Some authors have advanced that in all patients, infection with SARS-CoV-2 would decrease the availability of ACE2 receptors in the lungs. The biological processes that usually mobilize these receptors would be hindered, leading to various symptoms of the disease. People with more ACE2, even if they were infected, would develop fewer symptoms. However, this interpretation is challenged by the Crépy-en-Valois study, where the diagnosis of infection was made on a blood test, and not on a simple clinical assessment of symptoms.

According to other works, the nAChR nicotinic receptor could modulate the activity of ACE2. Could stimulating nAChR make infection through ACE2 more difficult? This fact is not yet proven. “The possibility of a reciprocal modulation between ACE2 and the nicotinic receptor is an interesting scientific question for which we have no answer”, insists Professor Jean-Pierre Changeux, co-author of a scientific article inviting this hypothesis to be explored.

La Pitié-Salpêtrière has announced the launch of several clinical trials in this direction. The first, conducted on caregivers, aims to compare the infection rate between a group carrying nicotine patches and a group carrying placebos patches. More trials need to be done on Covid + patients in hospital to assess whether nicotine affects the course of the disease – especially in smokers who are forced to quit as a result of hospitalization.

Nicotine and vaping: preliminary data not very encouraging

The return of associations of electronic cigarette users does not seem to go in this direction, however. According to the analysis of a questionnaire sent in early April to several thousand members of the AIDUCE and SOVAPE associations, the rate of patients suspected of being Covid + was similar whether or not there was nicotine consumption – around 2.5 %. “Although it concerns nearly 10,000 people, this citizen survey is inconclusive on a major protective effect of nicotine, note the associations in a press release. The first data show no major positive or negative effect of vaping when faced with the risk of contracting Covid-19 for vapers and their entourage. ”

Tobaccoologist Bertrand Dautzenberg, who had encouraged these associations to explore this hypothesis, notes on Twitter that the data was not collected under conditions “Respecting all the obligations of scientific studies”. He nevertheless considers that they are not showing strong signs of a beneficial effect of nicotine in reducing Covid-19 levels. ” He invites an analysis of the Health Database to further explore this hypothesis.

No reason to start smoking

The tobacco specialist recalls “That tobacco certainly brings a negative effect greater than that of a small benefit which is not confirmed at all”. “This leads to encouraging all doctors to advise and support smoking cessation for all smokers.” The authors of the Crépy-en-Valois study abound in this sense, recalling that tobacco is responsible for 75,000 deaths per year in France. “Smoking cannot therefore be offered as a way of protecting oneself against the new coronavirus”, they insist.

Unsurprisingly, this finding is similar to that of the authors of a review on the complications of Covid-19 related to smoking. “Risk factors for severe forms of Covid-19 (pulmonary and cardiovascular disorders, diabetes, etc.) are more common in smokers. Smokers with comorbidities should quit smoking by all means. ” They also observe that confinement can lead to social isolation and psychological distress that increase the need for smoking. [En outre], smoking is more prevalent among the economically less advantaged groups, and they are potentially more at risk for Covid-19. ”

For its part, the association Alliance contre le tabac urged the greatest caution with regard to speculative information in circulation. In the absence of more evidence, nicotine users, “Should not expect to be more protected than the population from the current epidemic”, she recalls. In addition, she advises non-smokers to use nicotine substitutes. A warning also formulated by the promoters of the Pitié-Salpétrière study or by the Minister of Health.

In summary

Although well publicized, epidemiological observations associating smoking and the risk of developing the symptoms of Covid-19 are difficult to interpret at this time. Under the hypothesis of a real cause and effect link, the biological mechanisms mentioned in the press are still hypothetical. None have yet been formally tested.

Listen to the weekly behind the scenes podcast of CheckNews. This week: Covid-19: what are the real figures for deaths in intensive care?

Jérôme Salomon, the Director General of Health, mentioned a mortality of 10% in intensive care of patients hospitalized for Covid-19. In this episode, Luc Peillon explains why this figure is largely underestimated.


Florian Gouthière

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“Around May 11, the epidemic will still be there” – Release

“Around May 11, the epidemic will still be there” Liberation.