Dax closes more than three percent in the plus

Dax curve

View of the Dax curve in the Frankfurt trading hall.


(Photo: dpa)

Dusseldorf The German stock market is going into the weekend with price gains. The leading index Dax closed around 3.2 percent in Frankfurt at 10,625 points. However, because the Dax slumped by almost four percent on Wednesday, the leading index hardly moved up compared to the previous week.

The stock market barometer probably received an additional boost from today’s small expiry date. Reach on a small expiry day Options on stocks and indices their end date, options on indices are settled at noon. That is why investors are trying to drive prices in one direction so that they can make higher profits or smaller losses with their options.

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Dax closes more than three percent in plus

Dax curve

View of the Dax curve in the Frankfurt trading hall.


(Photo: dpa)

Dusseldorf The German stock market was up around 3.2 percent at 10,625 points at the close of the stock exchange and is thus going into the weekend with price gains. However, because the Dax plummeted by almost four percent on Wednesday, the leading index barely moved up compared to last week.

The stock market barometer probably received an additional boost from today’s small expiry date. Reach on a small expiry day Options on stocks and indices their end date, options on indices are settled at noon. That is why investors are trying to drive prices in one direction so that they can make higher profits or smaller losses with their options.

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Hope for corona drugs spurs the Dax

Dusseldorf The German stock market apparently wants to start the weekend with price gains. Listed in morning trading the Dax three percent in plus at 10,613 points. All 30 values ​​are in the plus.

The topic on the stock exchange: A drug from the US pharmaceutical company Gilead Science reports success in treating Covid 19 patients, according to a media report.

The shares of the pharmaceutical company have already increased by 16 percent in after-hours trading in the US. Paper is also clearly on the German market. The share gains almost 20 percent on the Xetra trading platform.

In a study by the University Clinic in Chicago, remdesivir, which was originally developed against Ebola, led to a rapid reduction in fever and a reduction in the symptoms of the lung disease, so that almost all patients could be discharged in less than a week.

Gilead said the data still had to be analyzed to draw conclusions. The pharmaceutical company expects to be able to announce the first results from the ongoing phase 3 study at the end of the month.

It also has the White House presented clear criteria for exiting the corona restrictions. Such a concept would also be good for Germany, comments Handelsblatt author Christian Rickens.

In contrast, the figures from China stand. Because the economic growth there is in the first quarter shrunk by 6.8 percent compared to the same period in the previous year. For the first time since the official announcement of the quarterly figures in 1992, negative growth in China. The decline is even worse than expected by observers who had forecast 6.5 percent.

But this number is a lagging indicatorwhile stock marketers look ahead. And the future looks different: In the meantime, China has lifted travel restrictions again, and the economic recovery is ongoing. So China will soon be the growth engine of the global economy again? Probably not, says Handelsblatt correspondent Dana Heide.

The domestic Chinese service sector needs more time to recover and foreign demand has already weakened due to the global lockdown.

“A strong and rapid recovery, as in previous crises, is therefore difficult to imagine,” says Commerzbank– Analyst Hao Zhou. This suggests that the stock markets could soon go down again.

Today is Friday’s little expiry date. Options on stocks and indices reach their end date and are settled. In contrast to the big expiry day, called the Witches’ Sabbath, options on the Eurex futures exchange for professional investors are not affected. Accordingly, the small expiry date has less impact on the stock market prices than the large counterpart.

The overseas guidelines are positive: yesterday in New York, the stock markets closed in positive territory. The Nasdaq 100 selection index, which includes the large technology companies, made up for the losses in 2020. The US futures contracts signal an opening of three percent on the stock exchanges. The Tokyo stock exchange rose to its highest level in five weeks.

Look at the individual values

MTU: The engine manufacturer’s share tops the Dax list of winners with a plus of around six percent. The occasion is the announcement of Boeing after US market closes to resume commercial aircraft production at a plant near Seattle next week. The MTU-However, papers have a lot of catching up to do: A 56 percent drop has been recorded since the beginning of the year.

Other papers from the industry also benefit from the Boeing announcement: airbus– Shares rise 7.8 percent, FraportStocks up 5.7 percent.

Look at other asset classes

Hope for a rapid recovery in the global economy from the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic makes the “crisis currency” gold less attractive for investors. The precious metal fell 1.3 percent to $ 1,696.97 a troy ounce.

The Turkish lira is apparently in a dangerous devaluation vortex. Against the dollar, the currency is approaching the $ 7 mark, currently $ 6.94. The record high dates from the times of the currency crisis in mid-2018 and is $ 7.14.

What makes the situation so dangerous: According to Commerzbank, the foreign exchange reserves of the Turkish Central Bank (CBT) have fallen to a low of $ 27 billion net (excluding the foreign exchange of the reserve ratio of the banks). To extend existing foreign debt in 2020, $ 162 billion would be necessary.

“Due to the continued devaluation of the lira, foreign currency debt now accounts for a significant share of Turkish GDP and servicing foreign debt could be difficult,” concluded Commerzbank currency analyst Tatha Ghose. As soon as resources run out, the situation could escalate rapidly.

The euro is rising and has thus recovered somewhat from the losses of the two previous days. The common currency was trading at $ 1.0874 in the morning after falling to $ 1.0817 the previous evening.

The recent dollar strength cannot continue shortly before the weekend. In the morning, the dollar lost trading in all other major currencies.

“When planning wealth, the rule is: never get out completely!”

What the chart technique says

You can smile at chart technology, but there are always astonishing price movements that show that many investors are apparently oriented towards it.

For example, the Dax closed exactly at 10,279 points last Wednesday. It was from this brand that the leading index started its rally in December 2018, which lasted until a record high in February 2020.

This brand is now considered an important support, according to technical analysis it was “confirmed” on Tuesday of this week. Just below that there are so-called price gaps for which there were no quotes this year. The last gap would be closed at a Dax level of 10,097 points.

The latest recovery rally since mid-March led the Dax from 8255 points in mid-March to a new five-week high last Tuesday at 10,820 points. This rally remains intact as long as the stock market barometer remains above 9235 points.

If this upward trend remains intact, the next targets would be 11,030 and then 11,266 points, the August 2019 interim low.

Here is the page with the DAX course, here is the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current Short sales of investors can be found in our Short sales database.

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Dax closes almost four percent in the red

Dusseldorf The German Leading index Dax ended trading on Wednesday with a minus of 3.9 percent at 10,279 points. After an increase of 14 percent in just five trading days on Wednesday, the German stock market started to reverse again.

Sold today Wednesday apparently many foreign investors bought German shares. Because the Dax increased its minus significantly from midday trading to the opening of the US stock exchange, at the same time the euro slipped to $ 1.0918 during this period. Almost all Dax values ​​went out of the market with a minus.

Weak economic data in the US unsettled investors and also weighed on Wall Street prices. The Dow Jones already opened 2.2 percent in the red and then fell even further.

Investors were in the mood for news that the US industry cut production more in March than it had in 1946. The companies produced 6.3 percent less goods than in the previous month, as the central bank (Fed) announced in Washington on Wednesday. Overall production – to which utilities and mining also contribute – shrank by 5.4 percent.

US retailers’ sales also fell 8.7 percent in March from the previous month due to the corona crisis, the Department of Commerce said in Washington on Wednesday.

And last but not least, the US banks are suffering from the corona crisis: Due to provisions in the billions due to bad loans, the profits of Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citigroup almost halved.

In Germany, in addition to the weak US data, speculation that the German government was not in such a hurry to relax contact restrictions in the virus crisis caused the Dax to slide ever deeper into the red. And after having won almost 30 percent since the corona crash low in mid-March.

Just yesterday, the prices of some stocks had made investors forget that the world was in the middle of an economic crisis. So the course of the Tesla-Share more than doubled since mid-March. The Dax 30 values ​​could be about Wirecard have increased by around 35 percent in the past four weeks.

“The current crisis is like an accelerator of trends that have worked before,” says Jochen Stanzl from online broker CMC Markets. It was used as an excuse and pretext by companies that had previously had problems to carry out restructuring that was long overdue. And it is the reason for the crisis winners to expand even faster.

However, there are many crisis losers. For example, the engine manufacturer MTU, which was down 6.9 percent on Wednesday at the Frankfurt trading venue at the close of the stock exchange. The growing number of canceled orders from the US rival Boeing does too airbus– investors nervous. The shares of the European aircraft manufacturer lost around 8.7 percent.

After all: The new infections with the Covid 19 virus appear to be stabilizing or decrease. That is why there is talk in many, but not all, countries of easing contact barriers. Governments and central banks are throwing huge support packages on the market and pledging to do more when in doubt. So are you okay?

“I’m afraid the real reality check could still come,” says CommerzbankForeign exchange analyst Antje Praefcke. The market had put up with the previous “shockers” like the US labor market figures relatively well. So far, however, they would not have reflected the full extent of the effects of the “century recession”.

Many questions would remain unanswered: Are the production and supply chains really recovering quickly? Does consumer behavior change permanently? What about the recovery of the economy? “The big end could still come and give the market another cold shower,” says the analyst.

Investor sentiment also expects a sell-off on the German market, even if this may no longer push the Dax towards the 8200 point mark. “Investors should not run after the rising prices,” advises Stephan Heibel after evaluating the Handelsblatt survey Dax-Sentiment.

Meanwhile, there are increasing voices that the stock market lows from the end of March will be tested again. Should such a correction set in, there is a risk of a loss of 20 percent or more, depending on the market.

The problem with such forecasts: If a unanimous opinion has formed, it usually turns out differently. As a result, a full-fledged bear market is threatened with new lows, or the bear market is already behind us.

Look at the individual values

Varta: The battery manufacturer’s share, which traded almost nine percent lower on Wednesday at the close of trading, is moving into the focus of hedge funds that are betting on falling prices. The five participating funds have increased this speculation to 6.31 percent of all freely tradable shares in the past few days – a comparatively high ratio.

Such a short sale, as it is called in the technical language, consists of two different trading activities. For one thing, a hedge fund borrows from you Varta-Shareholder (for example, a mutual fund) share certificates and sells the papers.

Apparently that has happened in the past. On March 31 and April 8, for example, the Varta price fell in the meantime by a double-digit percentage – and this with a high trading volume. Last month, the average volume was around 272,000 pieces per day. On March 31, however, almost 750,000 Varta papers were traded, and on April 8, more than 484,000 pieces.

On April 9, the hedge fund Maplelane Capital reported that it had reached a short sale rate of 0.5 percent. Quotas below 0.5 percent do not have to be reported to the Bafin financial regulator.

But now the second trading activity is pending. The hedge funds must buy back the shares as cheaply as possible and return them to the lender. Not an easy task, as a small calculation example shows.

Because a short sale rate of 6.31 percent means: 2.55 million shares have to be bought back. With an average daily volume of 272,000 shares, this buy-back must be carefully dosed so that the Varta price does not rise rapidly and puts the hedge funds under pressure. Because they want to buy back cheaply.

Adidas: The addition of a billion dollar government loan does not help the share either. Although the paper had been 1.3 percent higher in pre-exchange trading, the shares dropped 4.7 percent from regular trading. The sporting goods group raised three billion euros from the development bank and major banks. Two-thirds of the remuneration of the Board of Management is deleted, and the dividend is also canceled.

Adidas suffers from the fact that practically all of its own stores in the western world have been closed for four weeks – including those of independent sports retailers. The stock had lost almost 50 percent since mid-February, but has risen by around 25 percent in the course of the stock market recovery in four weeks.

Fraport: The travel restrictions to curb the corona pandemic have at the Frankfurt airport operator Fraport led to a slump in business. The number of passengers fell by 62 percent to 2.1 million in March alone. The development continued in April: In the first two weeks, the passenger volume fell by over 95 percent. At the close of trading on Wednesday, the paper was down 4.8 percent.

Kuka: The Augsburg-based supplier has a large order for 5,000 robots for the car manufacturer BMW pulled ashore. This news initially caused the share to rise by 1.4 percent, but by the close of the stock market it had slipped significantly again and was 3.9 percent weaker from trading.

The systems and other technologies for the automation of production are to be delivered to BMW plants worldwide in the next few years, where they will be used primarily in body construction Kuka With. The two groups did not comment on the order value and the delivery period.

Oil prices are slipping

Brent oil from the North Sea is heading for its 18-year low from late March ($ 21.65): It fell 6.6 percent to $ 27.62 a barrel. The prices had already dropped significantly yesterday.

After all, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand will be weaker in April than it has been in a quarter of a century. It will drop by an average of 29 million barrels (159 liters each) a day, the IEA predicted in its monthly report on Wednesday.

“April could be the worst month – it could go down in history as black April,” said IEA chief Fatih Birol. A drop in demand of 9.3 million barrels a day is forecast for 2020. Such a sharp drop in demand cannot be compensated for by a reduction in the oil supply, the organization emphasized.

What the chart technique says

Even if the chart technique gives the Dax potential up to 11,030 points: In the short term, the indicators signal falling prices. Because the leading German index is considered overbought after an increase of 14 percent in the last five trading days before Wednesday alone, so it rose too quickly too quickly.

“At least in the short term, the downward risk seems to be higher than the upward chance, especially since the steep, almost four-month upward trend should not last too long,” say the chart technicians at Düsseldorfer Bank HSBC.

The structural picture of the individual Dax 30 values ​​has not yet brightened. All shares are listed below the 200-day line, which signals the long-term trend and underscores the still dominating, overall downward trend.

“When planning wealth, the rule is: never get out completely!”

Here is the page with the DAX course, here is the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current Short sales of investors can be found in our Short sales database.

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Dax slips significantly – shortsellers target Varta stock

Dax curve

View of the Dax curve in the Frankfurt trading hall.


(Photo: dpa)

Dusseldorf The German stock market continues to widen its losses in the course of trading: listed in the afternoon the Dax 3.4 percent minus 10,331 points.

On Tuesday, the index rose 1.3 percent to 10,696 points after a four-hour technical downtime in Xetra trading. At the same time, the leading index reached a new monthly high of 10,820.

Sell ​​today apparently many foreign investors bought German shares. Because the Dax has increased its minus significantly since noon until the opening of the US stock exchange, at the same time the euro slipped significantly during this period by one percent to $ 1.0874.

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Dividend payout drops in the corona crisis

DAX company

For most corporations, saving in the corona pandemic is important.


(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt Shareholders in Germany have to expect dividend losses this year due to the corona crisis. In the best case scenario, the 160 companies in the Dax, MDax and SDax stock market indices will transfer a total of over 44 billion euros to their shareholders in 2019 – around 14 percent less than in the previous year. It is also the first drop in five consecutive records. More than a quarter of the companies are therefore not planning a distribution (as of March 31).

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What investors should know about the online AGM

Shareholders’ meeting

Lone shareholder: First companies are considering an online AGM because of Corona.

(Photo: imago / Sven Simon)

Frankfurt It is an unexpected premiere. For decades it had been stipulated by law that general meetings in Germany are face-to-face events. But the corona virus has now wiped that certainty off the table. Already in April a law should allow virtual general meetings in Germany this year without attendance.

This will enable managers to carry out dividend resolutions and supervisory board elections despite restrictions on meetings. The first practical tests could already take place at the general meetings at the end of April the DaxCorporations Bayer and Munich Re respectively. This step means new territory not only for companies, but also for many shareholders.

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Dax survives a slide and closes 1.2 percent in positive territory

Dusseldorf The Dax continued its slight upward trend from the previous day on Tuesday: the leading German index closed 1.2 percent up at 9936 points. In the morning, the leading German index had even reached 10,096 points, but was unable to hold the five-digit number.

In the meantime, however, the Dax had slipped almost 400 points and was trading in negative territory before working its way up again in the afternoon with the opening of Wall Street. Probably had foreign investors triggered the price slide. The euro also fell against the dollar and subsequently recovered to the same extent as the Dax.

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Dax ended week 3.7 percent in the minus – counter movement was small

Dusseldorf The leading German index lost 3.68 percent this Friday and closed at 9632 points. Nevertheless, the Dax has one Weekly profit of around eight percent made. This is the biggest weekly profit in more than eight years.

Reason for the recovery rally are, among others, the multi-billion dollar stimulus programs of various governments. The the previous monthly balance, however, looks bleak from: With a drop of a good 19 percent so far, the leading German index is facing the biggest March loss in its history.

Financial stocks in particular have flown out of the deposits this Friday, the European sector index has fallen by more than seven percent. The biggest loser is the Belgian KBC with a drop of more than eleven percent in the meantime. At the close, the stocks were down more than eight percent.

The paper of the German bank in the meantime fell by around eight percent and went out of business with a minus of seven percent. After massive pressure from the supervisors, the European Banking Association (EBF) called on its members to forego profit distributions for 2020 due to the corona crisis.

The US markets were also unable to continue their rally. Of the Dow Jones was more than three percent in the red.

Exchanges cannot compensate for weak consumer spending

Especially the drastically declining propensity to consume among Americans weighed on Wall Street. The consumer confidence barometer in March dropped from 101 to 89.1 points, the University of Michigan said on Friday’s monthly survey.

This is the lowest level since October 2016 and also the strongest monthly slump in the indicator since October 2008 – the culmination of the financial crisis. The data is a harbinger of an economic downturn, as private consumption contributes around 70 percent to economic output.

The shocking US job market data from Thursday yesterday was able to absorb the stock markets, but the weak consumer spending was no longer.

The previous Countermovement in the leading German index was rather small anyway. Has reached 8255 points since the crash last Thursday the Dax only 10,137 points on Wednesday, so far nothing more was possible.

On the stock exchange, however, the principle applies: the smaller such counter-movements turn out after a crash, the bigger a second crash is likely to be at a later time.

To put it more specifically: If the Dax is unable to clear the 10,000 point mark more clearly, the risk increases that the leading index will do so still slips below the 8000 point zone.

Asset manager Markus Schön believes in an extremely negative scenario. In his opinion, a new “Black Monday” on the stock markets threatens to start the new trading week. “The Dax could drop below 9,000 points again next week and the Dow Jones could drop below 20,000 points,” he says.

The trigger is likely to be a worsening of the corona crisis. According to his research, the number of people suffering from coronavirus, among other things, will soon rise to over one million.

Together with the corona pandemic, which is becoming very real in the United States and is escalating particularly in the world financial metropolis of New York, there is a risk of massive losses of trust, which could lead to a new sell-off on the stock markets, says Schön.

One could dismiss this view as scaremongering. However, Schön was often right with his forecasts: when the Dax was still trading at 13,000 points at the end of February, he saw a quick slide below the 12,000 count mark. On March 9, he forecast a Dax level of 9,400 points. At that time, the index was still around 11,000 points.

Look at other asset classes

The euro is on the up against the dollar: At the beginning of the week, it was still at 1,066, currently $ 1.1072. The first “hard” data such as the US labor market report show how hard the US economy is hit by the hard braking.

The situation is likely to worsen because the infection and death rates in the US are only likely to increase. In Europe, on the other hand, the first signs of stabilization are gradually becoming apparent with regard to corona.
“But be careful: Even if the rise in unemployment in many European countries could be cushioned by government measures, the economic data will collapse here too and could hit the euro with full force,” says CommerzbankForeign exchange analyst Antje Praefcke.

There is also a danger that with the increasing release of catastrophic fundamentals worldwide, concern about a global recession and with it the general risk aversion will increase again, which could ultimately benefit the dollar again – albeit to a lesser extent than before due to its lost interest rate advantage.

The decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to distribute its newly decided bond purchases more flexibly among the euro countries and to suspend existing ceilings apparently continues to have an impact on the bond market.

The yields on German government bonds with a ten-year yield falling from minus 0.361 percent to minus 0.504 percent in the peak. Because the unclear economic consequences of the corona virus pandemic are driving more and more investors into the “safe haven” federal bonds. This pushes the return on 30-year stocks back below the zero percent mark to peak at minus 0.064 percent. All federal government debt is therefore a loss-making transaction for investors.

The yield on Italian bonds with the same maturity, on the other hand, suddenly rose to 1.68 percent, before slipping back quickly to 1.23 percent. In the meantime, this value is 1.322 percent.

Rising yields in Italy and falling returns in other countries signal that the southern European country has been particularly hard hit by the corona pandemic. The Prometeia research institute expects Italian economic output to decline by 6.5 percent in the current year. Public debt is also expected to rise to 150 percent of gross domestic product by the end of the year.

Oil prices are falling again. In the afternoon A barrel (159 liters) of the North Sea variety Brent costs $ 24.61, more than eight percent less. In addition to the economic consequences of the spread of the corona virus, the price war between the leading Opec nation of Saudi Arabia and Russia continues unabated.

Look at the individual values

Per seven Sat 1: The change at the top is well received by investors in the television company Pro Sieben Sat 1. The shares first increase by more than eight percent, at the close of the stock market the gain is still 2.31 percent. After months of quarreling about leadership, the television company Pro Sieben Sat 1 exchanges its increasingly criticized CEO Max Conze. The manager will leave the company with immediate effect.

The change of management is also associated with a U-turn in strategy: The operator of television channels such as Pro Sieben, Sat 1 and Kabel 1 wants to concentrate on the entertainment business in Germany, Austria and Switzerland in the future. The holdings in start-ups are to be sold “in due course”.

Fraport: The Frankfurt airport operator is preparing for a longer phase with less air traffic due to the effects of the corona pandemic. “In 2021 we will probably not reach 100 percent of the previous traffic,” says FraportBoss Stefan Schulte of the “FAZ”. Fraport wants to overcome the current crisis without government support if possible. Fraport has a liquidity cushion of more than one billion euros, which is still being increased. At the close, the share loses 3.38 percent.

Carnival: With a price drop of more than 20 percent, the shares of Carnival again bottom in the London selection index FTSE. According to stockbrokers, investors fear that the “Aida” mother, as a British company, could be left with the planned US billion aid for the cruise industry, which has been hit by the coronavirus crisis.

“When planning wealth, the rule is: never get out completely!”

What the chart technique says

With the increase to 10,137 points last Wednesday, two resistances are gaining in importance: First, the downward price gap of March 12, which covers the range between 10,138 and 10,391 points; on the other hand the low of December 2018 with 10,279 points, the starting signal for the rally until mid-February 2020.

“This is the decisive hurdle in chart technology, the skipping of which would put the German standard values ​​on a quick recovery path,” say the technical analysts at Düsseldorfer Bank HSBC. Without a recapture, the coming trading days are likely to remain volatile.

Such downward price gaps arise when the daily low of the previous day is above the daily high of the subsequent trading day. The daily low of March 11 was 10,391 points, the high of the following trading day was 10,138 points. Such gaps are a quick re-evaluation of the market and therefore an important resistance according to chart technology.

On the underside, according to the HSBC, the Dax should return to crisis mode at prices below 9070 points.

Here is the page with the DAX course, here is the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current Short sales of investors can be found in our Short sales database.

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Dax is clearly in the minus index but stands before the biggest weekly profit in eight years

Dusseldorf The German stock market is slipping significantly at the end of the week. Of the Dax is down 4.5 percent percent at 9,548 points. Nevertheless, the stock market barometer is heading for the biggest weekly profit in more than eight years. In spite of today’s losses in recent days, thanks to the multi-billion dollar stimulus programs of various governments, it has grown by a total of almost ten percent. The previous monthly balance, on the other hand, looks bleak: With a drop of a good 17 percent to date, the leading German index is at risk of the largest March loss in its history.

On Thursday, the leading German index closed 1.3 percent at 10,001 points because the US stock markets gave a boost. The Frankfurt benchmark ended the third trading day in a row with a plus sign.

Financial stocks in particular flew out of the deposits on Friday, the European sector index fell by five percent. After massive pressure from the supervisors, the European Banking Association (EBF) called on its members to forego profit distributions for 2020 due to the corona crisis.

Above all, drastically declining consumer spending by the Americans is weighing on Wall Street and the German stock market. The consumer confidence barometer in March dropped from 101 to 89.1 points, the University of Michigan said on Friday’s monthly survey. This is the lowest level since October 2016 and also the strongest monthly slump in the indicator since October 2008 – the culmination of the financial crisis. The data is a harbinger of an economic downturn, as private consumption contributes around 70 percent to economic output.

The shocking US job market data from Thursday yesterday was able to absorb the stock markets, but the weak consumer spending was no longer.

The previous Countermovement in the leading German index was rather small anyway. Since the crash on Thursday last week to 8255 points, the Dax has only reached 10,137 points on Wednesday, so far nothing more has been possible.

On the stock exchange, however, the principle applies: the smaller such counter-movements turn out after a crash, the bigger a second crash is likely to be at a later time.

To put it more specifically: If the Dax is not able to clear the 10,000 point mark more clearly, the risk increases that the leading index does still slips below the 8000 point zone.

Asset manager Markus Schön believes in an extremely negative scenario. In his opinion, a new “Black Monday” on the stock markets threatens to start the new trading week. “The Dax could drop below 9,000 points again next week and the Dow Jones could drop below 20,000 points,” he says.

The trigger is likely to be a worsening of the corona crisis. According to his research, the number of people suffering from coronavirus, among other things, will soon rise to over one million.
Together with the corona pandemic, which is becoming very real in the United States and is escalating particularly in the world financial metropolis of New York, there is a risk of massive losses of trust, which could lead to a new sell-off on the stock markets, says Schön.

One could dismiss this view as scaremongering. However, Schön was often right with his forecasts: when the Dax was still at 13,000 points at the end of February, he saw a quick slide below the 12,000 count mark. On March 9, he forecast a Dax level of 9,400 points. At that time, the index was still around 11,000 points.

Look at other asset classes

The euro is on the up against the dollar: At the beginning of the week, it was still at 1,066, currently $ 1.1003. The first “hard” data such as the US labor market report show how hard the US economy is hit by the hard braking.

The situation is likely to worsen because the infection and death rates in the US are only likely to increase. In Europe, on the other hand, the first signs of stabilization are gradually becoming apparent with regard to corona.
“But be careful: Even if the rise in unemployment in many European countries could be cushioned by government measures, the economic data will collapse here too and could hit the euro with full force,” says CommerzbankForeign exchange analyst Antje Praefcke.

There is also a danger that with the increasing release of catastrophic fundamentals worldwide, concern about a global recession and with it the general risk aversion will increase again, which could ultimately benefit the dollar again – albeit to a lesser extent than before due to its lost interest rate advantage.

The decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) to distribute its newly decided bond purchases more flexibly among the euro countries and to suspend existing ceilings apparently continues to have an impact on the bond market.

The yields on German government bonds with a term of ten years, the yield will drop from minus 0.361 percent to meanwhile minus 0.500 percent. Because the unclear economic consequences of the corona virus pandemic are driving more and more investors into the “safe haven” federal bonds. This pushes the return on 30-year stocks back below the zero percent mark to minus 0.026 percent. All federal government debt is therefore a loss-making transaction for investors.

The yield on Italian bonds with the same maturity, on the other hand, suddenly rose to 1.68 percent, before slipping back quickly to 1.23 percent. Meanwhile, this value is 1.316 percent.

Rising yields in Italy and falling returns in other countries signal that the southern European country has been particularly hard hit by the corona pandemic. The Prometeia research institute expects Italian economic output to decline by 6.5 percent in the current year. Public debt is also expected to rise to 150 percent of gross domestic product by the end of the year.

Oil prices are falling again. In the afternoon a barrel (159 liters) of the North Sea type Brent costs $ 24.77, six percent less. The price of a barrel of the American grade WTI loses 4.4 percent and costs only $ 21.60. In addition to the economic consequences of the spread of the corona virus, the price war between the leading Opec nation of Saudi Arabia and Russia continues unabated.

The recovery in the gold price has ended for the time being. The precious metal fell 0.9 percent to $ 1,614 per troy ounce. “I see no other reason to sell gold now than to take a few profits before the weekend,” said Stephen Innes, chief investment strategist at brokerage Axicorp.

Look at the individual values

Per seven Sat 1: The change at the top is well received by investors in the television company Pro Sieben Sat 1. The shares first rose by more than eight percent, but now the increase is only 0.9 percent. After months of quarreling about leadership, the television company Pro Sieben Sat 1 exchanges its increasingly criticized CEO Max Conze. The manager will leave the company with immediate effect.

The change of management is also associated with a U-turn in strategy: The operator of television channels such as Pro Sieben, Sat 1 and Kabel 1 wants to concentrate on the entertainment business in Germany, Austria and Switzerland in the future. The holdings in start-ups are to be sold “in due course”.

Fraport: The Frankfurt airport operator is preparing for a longer phase with less air traffic due to the effects of the corona pandemic. “In 2021 we will probably not reach 100 percent of the previous traffic,” says FraportBoss Stefan Schulte of the “FAZ”. Fraport wants to overcome the current crisis without government support if possible. Fraport has a liquidity cushion of more than one billion euros, which is still being increased. The share loses around four percent.

Carnival: With a price drop of more than 16 percent, Carnival shares are again at the bottom of the London selection index FTSE. According to stockbrokers, investors fear that the “Aida” mother, as a British company, could be left with the planned US billion aid for the cruise industry, which has been hit by the coronavirus crisis.

“When planning wealth, the rule is: never get out completely!”

What the chart technique says

With the increase to 10,137 points last Wednesday, two resistances gain in importance: Firstly, the downward price gap of March 12, which covers the range between 10,138 and 10,391 points; on the other hand the low of December 2018 with 10,279 points, the starting signal for the rally until mid-February 2020.

“This is the decisive hurdle in chart technology, skipping it would put the German standard values ​​on a fast recovery path,” say the technical analysts at Düsseldorfer Bank HSBC. Without a recapture, the coming trading days are likely to remain volatile.

Such downward price gaps arise when the daily low of the previous day is above the daily high of the subsequent trading day. The daily low of March 11 was 10,391 points, the high of the following trading day was 10,138 points. Such gaps are a quick re-evaluation of the market and therefore an important resistance according to chart technology.

On the underside, according to the HSBC, the Dax should return to crisis mode at prices below 9070 points.

Here is the page with the DAX course, here is the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current Short sales of investors can be found in our Short sales database.

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