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Seán Kyne Elected in Galway West After Defeating Noel Thomas

by Rachel Morgan News Editor May 24, 2026
written by Rachel Morgan News Editor

Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne has been elected to the Dáil following the eleventh and final count of the Galway West byelection. The result marks a rare political achievement, as it is only the fourth time in 44 years that a government candidate has won a byelection.

Kyne, who previously served as a Fine Gael TD between 2011 and 2020, secured the seat vacated by President Catherine Connolly. His victory was solidified after receiving 4,249 transfers from the Labour Party’s Helen Ogbu, bringing his final total to 19,218 votes. He finished 2,699 votes ahead of his main rival, Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland, who ended with 16,519 votes.

A Campaign Built on Experience

Fianna Fáil

Political observers noted that Kyne’s campaign relied heavily on his long-standing track record and name recognition across both the urban center of Galway city and the surrounding rural hinterland. Kyne credited his success to a “positive campaign,” stating, “I highlighted my experience, which wasn’t made up, it was real. I served at Cabinet, I was a former TD, I fought in five general elections. I have 22 years’ experience, and I’ve delivered for the constituency.”

His victory was aided by significant vote transfers from other candidates. In the final stages, he benefited from a strong transfer of votes from Fianna Fáil candidate Cillian Keane, reflecting what analysts described as a visible pact between the two government parties. Conversely, Noel Thomas—who had led for much of the count—faced challenges in securing transfers from left-leaning supporters, partly due to his involvement in fuel protests and his views on immigration.

Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne wins Galway West bye-election #RTÉNews #galway

Significance and Broader Context

Tánaiste and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris characterized the result as a “moment of growth and renewal” for his party and an endorsement of centrist politics. Harris suggested that the outcome indicates voters are responding to a politics of delivery rather than one defined by anger.

The byelection results also highlighted the performance of other parties. While Sinn Féin’s candidate Mark Lohan did not see his campaign translate into a seat, the Labour Party and the Social Democrats both expressed optimism. Labour’s Helen Ogbu, who finished third, stated that the support she received was “a testament to what is to come in the next general elections.” Meanwhile, Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns celebrated the party’s success in the Dublin Central byelection, where Daniel Ennis was elected in the early hours of Sunday morning, and signaled an intent to run candidates in every constituency in the next general election.

Noel Thomas election campaign

What Happens Next

With the byelection results now finalized, attention is expected to shift toward the legislative agenda. Fine Gael is likely to view this victory as a mandate for its current governing strategy. As the party looks toward the upcoming October budget, government leaders have indicated they will prioritize addressing voter concerns regarding the cost of living, childcare, and housing. For the opposition parties, the results may prompt internal reviews, particularly regarding candidate selection and the effectiveness of their respective transfer strategies in future electoral contests.

May 24, 2026 0 comments
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News

Gerry Hutch on the campaign trail; McAdam pledges to expand CCTV – The Irish Times

by Rachel Morgan News Editor May 19, 2026
written by Rachel Morgan News Editor

Campaigning has entered its final stage for the by-elections in Dublin Central and Galway West, with voting scheduled to take place this Friday from 7 a.m. To 10 p.m. With crowded fields of candidates in both constituencies, analysts expect that transfers will be decisive in determining the winners. Counting is set to begin Saturday morning, with results anticipated by early evening.

Polling and Voter Sentiment

Recent polling indicates a strong appetite for change, particularly in Dublin Central. According to an Irish Times/TG4 poll conducted by Ipsos B&amp. A, 53% of respondents in Dublin Central believe it is time for “radical change” in how the country is run, while 39% favor “moderate change.” In that constituency, Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan leads with 21% of first-preference votes, followed by the Social Democrats’ Daniel Ennis at 18% and Independent candidate Gerry Hutch at 14%.

In Galway West, Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne holds a slim lead with 17% of first-preference votes, followed by Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas at 16% and Labour’s Helen Ogbu at 12%. Sinn Féin candidate Mark Lohan currently stands at 7%.

Voter dissatisfaction with the government is prevalent in both areas. In Dublin Central, 72% of polled voters expressed dissatisfaction with the handling of the fuel crisis. Similarly, in Galway West, 67% are dissatisfied with the government’s response to the fuel crisis, with only 20% expressing satisfaction.

Key Campaign Issues

The priorities of voters differ across the two constituencies:

  • Dublin Central: The cost of living is the primary concern for 33% of voters, followed by house prices (24%), immigration (12%), and the cost of renting (11%).
  • Galway West: Roads, including city bypass plans, are the top priority for 27% of respondents, followed by housing (26%), the cost of living (11%), and public transport (8%). 35% of respondents said they were impacted by the housing shortage, citing high rents (26%), a lack of rental accommodation (23%), and a shortage of homes to buy (15%).

Candidate Platforms and Local Developments

Candidates have focused on a variety of local and international issues in the final stretch. Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam has pledged to expand CCTV cameras if elected to combat illegal dumping and litter across Dublin Central, noting that cameras have already been installed at Summer Street, Sherrard Street, and Belvedere Place since last August.

Independent candidate Gerry Hutch, whom gardaí have previously described in court as the figurehead of the Hutch crime gang involved in the Kinahan-Hutch feud, has been active on the campaign trail in Dublin, where he has been seen taking numerous selfies with supporters.

In Galway West, Sinn Féin’s Mark Lohan has expressed “full solidarity” with President Catherine Connolly and her family following the detention of the President’s sister, Margaret, who was part of a Gaza-bound aid flotilla. Lohan stated it is “essential” that those detained are released “without delay.”

Meanwhile, People Before Profit candidate Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin has raised “serious concern” regarding the death of Yves Sakila, a 35-year-old Congolese man who died after being restrained by security staff on Henry Street. Ó Ceannabháin has supported calls for an independent investigation into the use of force.

Political Clashes and Government Action

The by-elections have spilled over into the Dáil, where Labour leader Ivana Bacik accused Taoiseach Micheál Martin of employing “Micheál in Wonderland logic.” Bacik highlighted a 50% increase in eviction notices during the first three months of the year, totaling 7,000 notices, which she claimed were the “inevitable consequence” of government policies. The Taoiseach countered by stating that 9,000 social houses were built last year and argued that some smaller landlords may have exited the market due to tenant protection reforms.

Separately, Tánaiste and Minister for Finance Simon Harris has ordered a “deep dive” into suspicious betting patterns on the gambling platform Polymarket. An investigation found accounts making bets on Gerry Hutch to lose the by-election, which experts suggest could indicate market manipulation or money laundering. Harris is liaising with the Central Bank of Ireland, the Gambling Regulator, and the Department of Justice.

The government is also moving to have RTÉ’s finances audited by the Comptroller and Auditor General following a pay controversy involving presenter and producer Derek Mooney. Minister for Media Patrick O’Donovan stated that the relationship with the broadcaster cannot be “built on revelation,” while Simon Harris cited issues of “fairness, transparency, and accuracy.”

Looking Ahead

As the vote approaches, parties may shift their strategic focus. Fine Gael is likely to prioritize Galway West to support Seán Kyne, while Sinn Féin may concentrate efforts on Dublin Central to secure a win for Janice Boylan. Because no candidate is expected to be elected on the first count, the final results will likely depend on the unpredictable flow of transfers based on ideology, geography, and candidate performance.

May 19, 2026 0 comments
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News

Suspicious betting on Gerry Hutch in Dublin Central byelection – The Irish Times

by Rachel Morgan News Editor May 18, 2026
written by Rachel Morgan News Editor

An investigation has revealed that the majority of funds wagered on the Dublin Central byelection via the Polymarket platform originated from accounts displaying highly suspicious betting patterns.

Of the more than $1 million (€860,250) placed on various candidates, 86 per cent was linked to self-trading behavior. This involves placing a bet on a candidate and quickly reversing it with little to no profit or loss.

Patterns of Suspicious Activity

As of May 12th, just under $927,000 of the $1,072,776 total trades met specific suspicious criteria. These transactions involved 434 accounts and 1,373 individual trades.

View this post on Instagram about Gerry Hutch, Cayman Islands
From Instagram — related to Gerry Hutch, Cayman Islands

Bets were flagged as suspicious if users bought $500 worth of “no” positions and sold them within six hours while making less than 1 per cent profit. These criteria are based on US Treasury red flags for potential illicit financial activity.

Nearly half of these unusual bets targeted Gerry Hutch, the gangland figure known as ‘The Monk,’ specifically betting that he would lose the byelection. Out of nearly half a million dollars in trades regarding Hutch’s chances, 92 per cent ($416,275) met the suspicious criteria.

Did You Know? Further analysis showed that 97 per cent of the suspicious bets on the Dublin byelection were subsequently cashed out to a single cryptocurrency exchange located in the Cayman Islands.

Market Manipulation and Money Laundering

Suspicious trades were also placed against five other individuals, including Fianna Fáil senator Mary Fitzpatrick and disability rights campaigner Gillian Sherratt, neither of whom is a registered candidate.

Market Manipulation and Money Laundering
The Irish Times Fianna Fáil

In one instance starting March 27th, 26 accounts bet at least $1,000 on Hutch to lose over a 26-hour period, with each bet reversed within 12 minutes or less for nearly the same price.

Experts suggest these patterns may indicate money laundering, market manipulation, or attempts to make a market appear more active. Hedge fund manager Patrick Boyle noted that such activity likely constitutes “wash trading,” which can be used to manipulate odds or simulate high public interest.

Expert Insight: The use of anonymous cryptocurrency accounts in a “legal grey area” creates a significant challenge for oversight. When betting patterns diverge so sharply from standard behavior—as seen in the contrast between the Dublin and Galway West races—it suggests the platform may be being leveraged for purposes entirely unrelated to actual election forecasting.

Regulatory Outlook

The unusual activity in Dublin stands in stark contrast to the Galway West byelection, where less than $44,000 was wagered and no bets met the suspicious criteria.

Regulatory Outlook
Gerry Hutch gangland figure profile

Polymarket allows users to trade “yes” or “no” positions anonymously using cryptocurrency rather than betting against a house. The platform did not respond to requests for comment.

Because Polymarket does not currently hold a gambling licence in Ireland, it operates in a legal grey area. It is likely that the platform will soon come under regulation by the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is self-trading in the context of this investigation?
Self-trading occurs when a bet is placed on a candidate and then quickly reversed, resulting in little or no profit or loss for the user.

Were any candidates implicated in the suspicious betting?
No. There is no suggestion that Gerry Hutch or any other candidate was involved in the betting activity.

How did the Dublin betting patterns differ from other races?
While 86 per cent of Dublin Central trades were suspicious, the Galway West byelection saw less than $44,000 in total bets, none of which met the criteria for suspicious transactions.

Do you believe cryptocurrency-based prediction markets should be regulated like traditional gambling platforms?

May 18, 2026 0 comments
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Business

Public service must embrace risk to deliver big projects, Jack Chambers says – The Irish Times

by Chief Editor May 16, 2026
written by Chief Editor

The End of the ‘Safe Bet’: Why Agile Governance is the New Global Standard

For decades, the hallmark of a “good” civil servant was the avoidance of mistakes. In the corridors of power, risk aversion wasn’t just a habit; it was a survival mechanism. However, a significant shift is underway. The move toward “risk appetite statements” and a focus on speed over process marks a fundamental pivot in how modern states approach infrastructure and public service.

When the cost of delay—be it in housing or transport—outweighs the cost of a mistake, the traditional bureaucratic model breaks. We are seeing a transition toward “Agile Governance,” where the goal is no longer a perfect plan on paper, but a delivered project on the ground.

Pro Tip for Public Sector Leaders: To move from risk-aversion to delivery, implement “Safe-to-Fail” pilots. Instead of a nationwide rollout, test infrastructure delivery models in smaller zones to identify bottlenecks before scaling.

Breaking the Infrastructure Bottleneck

Large-scale projects like the MetroLink or major ring roads often fall victim to “analysis paralysis.” The trend moving forward is the adoption of a private-sector mentality: Iterate, adjust, and accelerate.

Breaking the Infrastructure Bottleneck
The Irish Times Breaking Infrastructure Bottleneck Large

By providing senior decision-makers with explicit political backing to take risks, governments can bypass the “process-heavy” traps that lead to decade-long delays. The future of urban development lies in Concurrent Engineering—where planning, procurement, and construction overlap rather than following a rigid, linear sequence.

For more on how this affects urban planning, see our analysis on the future of sustainable city transit.

Did you know? Many OECD countries are now adopting “Regulatory Sandboxes,” allowing companies and government bodies to test innovative solutions in a controlled environment without the immediate burden of full regulatory compliance.

Fiscal Discipline in the Age of Populism

There is a growing tension between the public’s demand for immediate spending and the economic necessity of fiscal discipline. As “populism” increases from both ends of the political spectrum, the trend for future budgets will be Targeted Fiscalism.

Fiscal Discipline in the Age of Populism
The Irish Times Fiscal Discipline

Rather than broad spending sprees, we expect to see a shift toward high-impact, evidence-based allocations. The challenge for modern governments is to maintain a “fiscal anchor”—sticking to strict parameters while remaining flexible enough to support workers during economic contractions.

The Shift Toward Preventative Social Investment

One of the most interesting emerging trends is the movement from “reactive” to “preventative” state support. A prime example is the proposal for gym membership tax credits. This represents a shift in viewing exercise not as a hobby, but as a preventative healthcare measure.

When the state subsidizes wellness, it reduces the long-term burden on the public health system. We can expect more “Wellness Credits” to emerge, potentially extending to mental health apps, nutritional counseling, and preventative screenings, all designed to lower the cost of chronic disease management.

Democratic Decentralization: The Grassroots Pivot

Political parties are facing a crisis of connection. The trend toward giving grassroots members a direct vote in candidate selection—rather than leaving it to a tiny circle of parliamentary elites—is a response to growing voter apathy.

We are entering an era of Direct Party Democracy. By empowering local councillors and active members, parties can better align their platforms with the actual needs of the community, making them more “agile” in the face of unpredictable by-election swings.

This decentralization is not just about fairness; it’s about survival. In a digital age, the “top-down” approach to political leadership is increasingly viewed as out-of-touch and unsustainable.

Automaticity in Financial Security

The push for pension auto-enrolment, such as the MyFutureFund, signals a move toward “Default-In” Social Policy. Recognizing that human psychology often leads to procrastination regarding retirement, governments are removing the “choice” barrier.

Automaticity in Financial Security
Ireland public service reform

The future trend here is the “Automatic State”—where essential services, from pension savings to health insurance, are opted-in by default, ensuring that the most vulnerable populations aren’t left behind due to administrative friction.

For a deeper dive into global pension trends, visit the OECD official portal.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a “risk appetite statement” in government?
It is a formal document that defines the level of risk a public body is willing to accept in pursuit of its objectives. It gives officials the confidence to make decisions without fear of undue penalty if a project encounters issues.

Why is auto-enrolment for pensions important?
It ensures that workers who might otherwise forget or avoid setting up a pension are automatically saved for retirement, preventing a drastic drop in income during old age.

How does preventative healthcare reduce government spending?
By incentivizing activities like gym memberships, the state reduces the incidence of lifestyle-related diseases (like Type 2 diabetes or heart disease), which are far more expensive to treat in a hospital setting than to prevent in a gym.

Join the Conversation

Do you think the public service should take more risks to get things done faster, or is caution the only way to protect taxpayer money?

Share your thoughts in the comments below or subscribe to our newsletter for weekly insights into governance and policy.

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May 16, 2026 0 comments
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