An investigation has revealed that the majority of funds wagered on the Dublin Central byelection via the Polymarket platform originated from accounts displaying highly suspicious betting patterns.
Of the more than $1 million (€860,250) placed on various candidates, 86 per cent was linked to self-trading behavior. This involves placing a bet on a candidate and quickly reversing it with little to no profit or loss.
Patterns of Suspicious Activity
As of May 12th, just under $927,000 of the $1,072,776 total trades met specific suspicious criteria. These transactions involved 434 accounts and 1,373 individual trades.
Bets were flagged as suspicious if users bought $500 worth of “no” positions and sold them within six hours while making less than 1 per cent profit. These criteria are based on US Treasury red flags for potential illicit financial activity.
Nearly half of these unusual bets targeted Gerry Hutch, the gangland figure known as ‘The Monk,’ specifically betting that he would lose the byelection. Out of nearly half a million dollars in trades regarding Hutch’s chances, 92 per cent ($416,275) met the suspicious criteria.
Market Manipulation and Money Laundering
Suspicious trades were also placed against five other individuals, including Fianna Fáil senator Mary Fitzpatrick and disability rights campaigner Gillian Sherratt, neither of whom is a registered candidate.
In one instance starting March 27th, 26 accounts bet at least $1,000 on Hutch to lose over a 26-hour period, with each bet reversed within 12 minutes or less for nearly the same price.
Experts suggest these patterns may indicate money laundering, market manipulation, or attempts to make a market appear more active. Hedge fund manager Patrick Boyle noted that such activity likely constitutes “wash trading,” which can be used to manipulate odds or simulate high public interest.
Regulatory Outlook
The unusual activity in Dublin stands in stark contrast to the Galway West byelection, where less than $44,000 was wagered and no bets met the suspicious criteria.
Polymarket allows users to trade “yes” or “no” positions anonymously using cryptocurrency rather than betting against a house. The platform did not respond to requests for comment.
Because Polymarket does not currently hold a gambling licence in Ireland, it operates in a legal grey area. It is likely that the platform will soon come under regulation by the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is self-trading in the context of this investigation?
Self-trading occurs when a bet is placed on a candidate and then quickly reversed, resulting in little or no profit or loss for the user.
Were any candidates implicated in the suspicious betting?
No. There is no suggestion that Gerry Hutch or any other candidate was involved in the betting activity.
How did the Dublin betting patterns differ from other races?
While 86 per cent of Dublin Central trades were suspicious, the Galway West byelection saw less than $44,000 in total bets, none of which met the criteria for suspicious transactions.
Do you believe cryptocurrency-based prediction markets should be regulated like traditional gambling platforms?