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Seán Kyne Elected in Galway West After Defeating Noel Thomas

by Rachel Morgan News Editor May 24, 2026
written by Rachel Morgan News Editor

Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne has been elected to the Dáil following the eleventh and final count of the Galway West byelection. The result marks a rare political achievement, as it is only the fourth time in 44 years that a government candidate has won a byelection.

Kyne, who previously served as a Fine Gael TD between 2011 and 2020, secured the seat vacated by President Catherine Connolly. His victory was solidified after receiving 4,249 transfers from the Labour Party’s Helen Ogbu, bringing his final total to 19,218 votes. He finished 2,699 votes ahead of his main rival, Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland, who ended with 16,519 votes.

A Campaign Built on Experience

Fianna Fáil

Political observers noted that Kyne’s campaign relied heavily on his long-standing track record and name recognition across both the urban center of Galway city and the surrounding rural hinterland. Kyne credited his success to a “positive campaign,” stating, “I highlighted my experience, which wasn’t made up, it was real. I served at Cabinet, I was a former TD, I fought in five general elections. I have 22 years’ experience, and I’ve delivered for the constituency.”

His victory was aided by significant vote transfers from other candidates. In the final stages, he benefited from a strong transfer of votes from Fianna Fáil candidate Cillian Keane, reflecting what analysts described as a visible pact between the two government parties. Conversely, Noel Thomas—who had led for much of the count—faced challenges in securing transfers from left-leaning supporters, partly due to his involvement in fuel protests and his views on immigration.

Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne wins Galway West bye-election #RTÉNews #galway

Significance and Broader Context

Tánaiste and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris characterized the result as a “moment of growth and renewal” for his party and an endorsement of centrist politics. Harris suggested that the outcome indicates voters are responding to a politics of delivery rather than one defined by anger.

The byelection results also highlighted the performance of other parties. While Sinn Féin’s candidate Mark Lohan did not see his campaign translate into a seat, the Labour Party and the Social Democrats both expressed optimism. Labour’s Helen Ogbu, who finished third, stated that the support she received was “a testament to what is to come in the next general elections.” Meanwhile, Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns celebrated the party’s success in the Dublin Central byelection, where Daniel Ennis was elected in the early hours of Sunday morning, and signaled an intent to run candidates in every constituency in the next general election.

Noel Thomas election campaign

What Happens Next

With the byelection results now finalized, attention is expected to shift toward the legislative agenda. Fine Gael is likely to view this victory as a mandate for its current governing strategy. As the party looks toward the upcoming October budget, government leaders have indicated they will prioritize addressing voter concerns regarding the cost of living, childcare, and housing. For the opposition parties, the results may prompt internal reviews, particularly regarding candidate selection and the effectiveness of their respective transfer strategies in future electoral contests.

May 24, 2026 0 comments
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News

Suspicious betting on Gerry Hutch in Dublin Central byelection – The Irish Times

by Rachel Morgan News Editor May 18, 2026
written by Rachel Morgan News Editor

An investigation has revealed that the majority of funds wagered on the Dublin Central byelection via the Polymarket platform originated from accounts displaying highly suspicious betting patterns.

Of the more than $1 million (€860,250) placed on various candidates, 86 per cent was linked to self-trading behavior. This involves placing a bet on a candidate and quickly reversing it with little to no profit or loss.

Patterns of Suspicious Activity

As of May 12th, just under $927,000 of the $1,072,776 total trades met specific suspicious criteria. These transactions involved 434 accounts and 1,373 individual trades.

View this post on Instagram about Gerry Hutch, Cayman Islands
From Instagram — related to Gerry Hutch, Cayman Islands

Bets were flagged as suspicious if users bought $500 worth of “no” positions and sold them within six hours while making less than 1 per cent profit. These criteria are based on US Treasury red flags for potential illicit financial activity.

Nearly half of these unusual bets targeted Gerry Hutch, the gangland figure known as ‘The Monk,’ specifically betting that he would lose the byelection. Out of nearly half a million dollars in trades regarding Hutch’s chances, 92 per cent ($416,275) met the suspicious criteria.

Did You Know? Further analysis showed that 97 per cent of the suspicious bets on the Dublin byelection were subsequently cashed out to a single cryptocurrency exchange located in the Cayman Islands.

Market Manipulation and Money Laundering

Suspicious trades were also placed against five other individuals, including Fianna Fáil senator Mary Fitzpatrick and disability rights campaigner Gillian Sherratt, neither of whom is a registered candidate.

Market Manipulation and Money Laundering
The Irish Times Fianna Fáil

In one instance starting March 27th, 26 accounts bet at least $1,000 on Hutch to lose over a 26-hour period, with each bet reversed within 12 minutes or less for nearly the same price.

Experts suggest these patterns may indicate money laundering, market manipulation, or attempts to make a market appear more active. Hedge fund manager Patrick Boyle noted that such activity likely constitutes “wash trading,” which can be used to manipulate odds or simulate high public interest.

Expert Insight: The use of anonymous cryptocurrency accounts in a “legal grey area” creates a significant challenge for oversight. When betting patterns diverge so sharply from standard behavior—as seen in the contrast between the Dublin and Galway West races—it suggests the platform may be being leveraged for purposes entirely unrelated to actual election forecasting.

Regulatory Outlook

The unusual activity in Dublin stands in stark contrast to the Galway West byelection, where less than $44,000 was wagered and no bets met the suspicious criteria.

Regulatory Outlook
Gerry Hutch gangland figure profile

Polymarket allows users to trade “yes” or “no” positions anonymously using cryptocurrency rather than betting against a house. The platform did not respond to requests for comment.

Because Polymarket does not currently hold a gambling licence in Ireland, it operates in a legal grey area. It is likely that the platform will soon come under regulation by the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is self-trading in the context of this investigation?
Self-trading occurs when a bet is placed on a candidate and then quickly reversed, resulting in little or no profit or loss for the user.

Were any candidates implicated in the suspicious betting?
No. There is no suggestion that Gerry Hutch or any other candidate was involved in the betting activity.

How did the Dublin betting patterns differ from other races?
While 86 per cent of Dublin Central trades were suspicious, the Galway West byelection saw less than $44,000 in total bets, none of which met the criteria for suspicious transactions.

Do you believe cryptocurrency-based prediction markets should be regulated like traditional gambling platforms?

May 18, 2026 0 comments
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