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After weeks of silence, President Xi has spoken up on the Middle East conflict. Why now?

by Chief Editor
written by Chief Editor

The Beijing Pivot: Navigating the High-Stakes Iran Conflict

For weeks, Beijing maintained a calculated silence as the war in Iran unfolded. However, a sudden shift in messaging from President Xi Jinping suggests a strategic recalculation. As the conflict enters its eighth week, China is moving from the sidelines to a more proactive diplomatic role, driven by a need to protect energy interests and project global leadership.

This transition is not merely about peace; it is about leverage. With a summit between President Xi and U.S. President Donald Trump on the horizon, Beijing is utilizing the crisis to signal its stake in regional stability and its willingness to act as a pragmatic alternative to Washington’s approach.

Did you know? China and Iran signed a 25-year “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” in March 2021, creating a $400 billion framework for investment in infrastructure, banking, and energy.

Energy Security and the ‘Shadow Fleet’ Strategy

While the war has caused economic turmoil for many East Asian nations, China has remained relatively shielded due to its diverse energy sources. However, the stability of the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical vulnerability. President Xi has explicitly called for the waterway to maintain normal passage to serve the common interests of the international community.

Energy Security and the 'Shadow Fleet' Strategy
China Iran Beijing

The relationship between Beijing and Tehran is deeply rooted in energy and finance. China currently absorbs the vast majority of Iran’s exported oil—approximately 1.4 million barrels per day. To maintain this flow despite U.S. Sanctions, a complex “shadow fleet” has emerged.

How the Sanctions-Busting Network Operates:

  • Shell Companies: Using aging tankers registered to rotating flags.
  • Dark Transit: Switching off transponders to hide vessel movements.
  • Ship-to-Ship Transfers: Conducting transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
  • False Documentation: Labeling Iranian crude as Malaysian or Indonesian upon arrival in Chinese ports.

This financial architecture allows Iran to fund the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and various regional militias, making Beijing a central, though often unnamed, actor in the conflict’s sustainment.

The Diplomacy of Disorder: China’s Four-Point Plan

Beijing is attempting to frame itself as the voice of reason amidst what President Xi described as a world order “crumbling into disarray.” To this complete, China has put forward a four-point proposal for Middle East peace, focusing on:

The Diplomacy of Disorder: China's Four-Point Plan
China Iran Beijing
  • Peaceful coexistence.
  • Respect for national sovereignty.
  • Upholding international law.
  • Regional coordination in development and security.

By advocating for political and diplomatic resolutions, China aims to contrast its approach with the U.S.-led blockade of Iranian ports. This “pragmatic” positioning is designed to attract regional partners, such as Saudi Arabia, and strengthen China’s image as a stabilizer of the global order.

Pro Tip for Analysts: Watch the gap between Beijing’s rhetoric and its actions. While calling for peace, U.S. Intelligence agencies have suggested China may be sending offensive weapons to Iran, indicating a dual-track strategy of diplomacy and material support.

Future Trends: Geopolitical Ripples and Strategic Risks

The Iran conflict is not an isolated event; it is a catalyst for broader strategic shifts. The primary danger for Beijing is not immediate energy scarcity, but the systemic disorder caused by an increasingly volatile Washington. This instability threatens the global order upon which China’s economic growth depends.

Potential Trajectories to Watch:

1. The Taiwan Connection: Experts suggest that the wars in Ukraine and Iran may serve as precursors or signals for the future of Taiwan, as the U.S. Reorients its foreign policy around competition with China.

Trudeau lectures Xi Jinping on China protest weeks after spat at G20 | 'Stand with protesters'

2. Rhetoric vs. Influence: There is a growing risk that Beijing’s diplomatic calls for de-escalation may be viewed as meaningless unless China takes concrete action to curtail Iranian aggression and threats to regional security.

3. The Trump-Xi Dynamic: The conflict has already impacted high-level diplomacy, with President Trump postponing an April summit with Xi Jinping due to the war. The outcome of future summits will likely depend on how China balances its partnership with Iran against its relationship with the U.S.

For more on the shifting dynamics of Asian security, explore our analysis of Indo-Pacific trade routes or read the latest reports from the Brookings Institution.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is China supporting Iran despite the risk of U.S. Tension?

China relies on Iran as its largest trading partner in the Middle East and benefits from long-term access to discounted crude oil through their 25-year strategic partnership.

From Instagram — related to China, Iran

What is the ‘shadow fleet’?

The shadow fleet consists of tankers that use shell companies and disabled transponders to transport Iranian oil to Chinese ports, bypassing U.S. Sanctions via ship-to-ship transfers.

How does the war in Iran affect the global order?

The conflict contributes to global disorder, specifically through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the destabilization of regional security, which China views as a threat to the stable international environment it needs for trade.

What do you think? Is China’s diplomatic push a genuine effort at peace or a strategic move for leverage? Share your thoughts in the comments below or subscribe to our newsletter for deeper geopolitical insights.

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World

UAE minister Reem Al Hashimy describes Iran’s attacks as ‘almost unhinged’, tells ABC they surprised her

by Chief Editor
written by Chief Editor

UAE Minister Calls Iran’s Attacks “Unhinged” as Gulf Tensions Escalate

The United Arab Emirates has endured the brunt of recent missile and drone attacks from Iran, surpassing even Israel in the number of incidents, according to a senior UAE minister. This surge in attacks comes amid the ongoing conflict between the United States and Israel with Iran, raising concerns about regional stability and global economic impacts.

Unprecedented Aggression and Irrational Path

Minister for International Cooperation Reem Al Hashimy described Iran’s actions as “unprecedented” and “almost unhinged,” expressing surprise at the targeting of Gulf states who have consistently advocated for de-escalation. “It’s really quite surprising for us that Iran has taken such an irrational path,” she stated.

Targeting Civilian Infrastructure

Unlike previous conflicts, Iran’s recent attacks have extended beyond military bases, deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure such as airports and oil tankers. This escalation raises serious questions about Iran’s motivations and adherence to international law. “They are actually targeting civilian infrastructure as well,” Al Hashimy emphasized.

Motives Behind the Attacks

Analysts suggest Iran’s attacks are aimed at maximizing pressure on the United States, hoping to disrupt the global economy through damage to oil exports and potentially drive a wedge between Gulf nations and Washington. However, Al Hashimy dismissed the notion that Gulf states are reconsidering their alliances with the US, stating the relationship is “a long-standing strategic partnership” that is being “doubled down on.”

Impact on Global Trade and the Strait of Hormuz

Iran’s attacks have effectively disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, with approximately 20% of the world’s oil passing through it. This disruption extends beyond the oil industry, impacting various global supply chains, including cooking oil, petrochemicals, and manufactured products. The UAE is actively working with partners, including Australia, to mitigate these risks and ensure maritime freedoms.

UAE’s Resilience and Commitment to Partnerships

Despite the attacks, the UAE remains resolute and is not succumbing to intimidation. Al Hashimy highlighted the country’s resilience and commitment to its partnerships with the US and Australia. Australia has deployed a Wedgetail surveillance aircraft and support crew to the UAE, providing crucial detection capabilities.

Economic Implications and Investment

The attacks are likely to affect the UAE’s reputation as a safe haven, potentially impacting key economic drivers like tourism, real estate, and aviation. However, the UAE remains committed to its $1.4 trillion investment in the US and the Abraham Accords with Israel, viewing these as vital partnerships.

Support for Palestinians in Gaza

The UAE has provided nearly $3 billion in support to the Palestinian people in Gaza and continues to seek ways to alleviate suffering in the region.

FAQ

Q: What is the UAE’s stance on the US-Israel conflict with Iran?
A: The UAE maintains a strong strategic partnership with both the US and Israel and does not blame them for initiating the conflict. The UAE’s primary concern is Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Gulf states.

Q: How is the UAE responding to the attacks on its infrastructure?
A: The UAE has been intercepting virtually all incoming missiles and drones with its well-equipped defense forces. It is similarly working with international partners to mitigate the impact on global trade and ensure maritime security.

Q: What is the significance of the Strait of Hormuz in this conflict?
A: The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway for global oil shipments, and Iran’s disruption of traffic through the strait has significant implications for the global economy.

Explore more about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its global implications.

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World

Why Arab states are terrified of US war with Iran

by Chief Editor
written by Chief Editor

Gulf States Fear Escalation as US-Iran Tensions Reach Boiling Point

As a potential American attack on Iran looms, a growing sense of dread is gripping America’s allies in the Persian Gulf. These nations, hosting crucial U.S. Bases, are bracing for potential Iranian retaliation and are actively lobbying Washington to de-escalate the situation.

Staggering Military Buildup Fuels Fears of Prolonged Conflict

The scale of the U.S. Military mobilization is significant. At least 108 air tankers are currently in or en route to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) theater. This build-up suggests a potential operation that extends beyond a single strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, hinting at a more sustained and long-lasting campaign.

Regional Concerns: Chaos and the Rise of Israel

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and Iraq are primarily concerned about the potential for chaos and instability resulting from a conflict. While they may desire a weakening of the Iranian leadership, the prospect of a collapsed Iranian state is deeply unsettling. Anna Jacobs Khalaf, a Gulf analyst, noted that regional leaders fear a scenario of chaos and the possibility of more radical elements gaining power.

A key concern is the potential for an expansionist Israel to benefit from a weakened Iran. As Galip Dalay points out, Iran’s diminished power would remove a key counterweight to Israeli influence in the region, potentially leading to a shift in the regional balance of power.

Diplomatic Efforts to Avert War

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Turkey and Egypt have been engaged in intensive diplomatic efforts to pull Washington and Tehran back from the brink. This isn’t driven by sympathy for Iran, but by the realization that they would be on the front lines of any retaliatory action.

Iraq’s Precarious Position

Predominantly Shi’a Iraq is particularly vulnerable. After decades of upheaval, Baghdad is desperate to avoid being drawn into a conflict. Smaller, hardline Shi’a groups might feel compelled to attack American troops in defense of Iran, while the main Shi’a political forces view a U.S.-Iran conflict on their soil as an existential threat to their fragile sovereignty. Tehran also recognizes the importance of a functional Iraq as a trade partner.

Direct Threats to Gulf Security

Iran has repeatedly signaled that U.S. Bases in the region are legitimate targets. The attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in June 2025, though without casualties, serves as a stark reminder of this threat. Iranian officials, including Ali Shamkhani, have suggested that any future response would be far more severe.

The 2019 attack on Saudi oil facilities demonstrated Iran’s capability to strike critical infrastructure in the Gulf. With little to lose, the motivation to target countries hosting U.S. Military bases would likely increase in a full-scale conflict.

Economic and Humanitarian Consequences

Beyond direct military threats, a regional war would have devastating economic consequences. Diversification efforts and foreign investment would be jeopardized, and a potential refugee crisis looms, with the possibility of thousands of Iranians seeking refuge in neighboring countries like the UAE. The threat of closure, or even selective interdiction, of the Strait of Hormuz – through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes – could send global oil prices soaring and trigger inflation.

The Nuclear Risk: A Perverse Outcome

There is a heightened risk that a U.S. Military attack could ironically lead Iran to abandon its official nuclear doctrine and pursue weaponization. Without a full occupation, Iran possesses the know-how to develop a nuclear bomb should it choose to do so.

Gulf States Push Back

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have publicly expressed their opposition to using their airspace for an attack on Iran. Anwar Gargash, a key advisor to the UAE president, has called for a “long-term diplomatic solution” between Washington and Tehran.

Trump’s Approach and Iranian Concessions

Despite Iran offering concessions on the nuclear issue, including suspending enrichment and offering economic incentives, the Trump administration appears to be demanding complete capitulation, including concessions on ballistic missiles – a red line for Iran.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is CENTCOM’s role in this situation?
A: U.S. Central Command oversees U.S. Forces in the Middle East and is responsible for coordinating any potential military action against Iran.

Q: Why are Gulf states so concerned about a U.S. Attack on Iran?
A: They fear retaliation from Iran, regional instability, and the potential for a power vacuum that could be filled by an expansionist Israel.

Q: What is the Strait of Hormuz and why is it important?
A: The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply passes. Any disruption to traffic through the strait would have major global economic consequences.

Q: Is a diplomatic solution still possible?
A: Several countries are actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation, but the prospects for a breakthrough remain uncertain.

Did you know? Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGC) is preparing for a “smart” closure of the Strait of Hormuz, selectively targeting Western-linked tankers while allowing Chinese oil purchases to pass.

Explore more insights into Middle East policy and analysis on our website.

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Entertainment

market slump pushes galleries to the Gulf

by Chief Editor
written by Chief Editor

The Gulf’s Rise as the New Epicenter of the Global Art Market

A shift is underway in the art world. As traditional markets in Europe and North America experience a downturn, the Gulf region is rapidly emerging as a key player, attracting galleries and collectors alike. This transformation isn’t merely about money; it represents a recalibration of the global art economy, fueled by ambitious cultural investment and a growing appetite for art within the region.

A Market in Transition: Declining Sales and Shifting Focus

Recent data reveals a challenging landscape for the global art market. In 2024, sales reached an estimated $57.5 billion, a 12 percent year-on-year decline, according to a report by Art Basel and UBS. Economic volatility and geopolitical tensions are contributing factors, prompting a search for more stable and promising markets. This has led art dealers to turn their attention – and their galleries – towards the oil-rich Gulf states.

Art Basel Qatar: A Strategic Debut

The inaugural Art Basel Qatar, held earlier this month, signifies this strategic shift. It marks the first time Art Basel has established a fair in the broader SWANA (South West Asia and North Africa) region. The fair, featuring 87 galleries from 31 countries, departed from the traditional booth structure, opting for an open-format exhibition curated by Wael Shawky around the theme of “Becoming.”

“The second you land here, you see the ambition. It’s basically the future,” remarked Andisheh Avini, a senior director at Gagosian Gallery, highlighting the potential the region holds. Galleries are recognizing the “extremely important” need to explore new consumer and collector bases.

Beyond Oil: Cultural Investment as Economic Diversification

The Gulf states’ interest in art isn’t new. For decades, they’ve been investing heavily in museums and cultural development as part of a broader strategy to diversify their economies away from oil and gas and boost tourism. In 2021, Abu Dhabi announced a $6 billion five-year plan for investments in its culture and creative industries. Doha has established the National Museum of Qatar and the Museum of Islamic Art, with its museums authority reporting an annual budget of around $1 billion for art acquisitions.

Saudi Arabia has also joined the fray, announcing over $21.6 billion in cultural investments since 2016. This commitment to culture isn’t simply about aesthetics; it’s about building a global identity and attracting international attention.

A Focus on Regional Artists and Contemporary Themes

Art Basel Qatar showcased a strong emphasis on artists from the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia (MENASA), with over half of the participating artists hailing from the region. Palestinian artists were particularly prominent, with works addressing themes of displacement and conflict. Hazem Harb’s installations, featuring keys representing the 1948 “Nakba” and the recent destruction in Gaza, exemplified this focus on contemporary issues.

The fair also featured established international artists, such as Christo, whose early works were presented by Gagosian. The presentation sparked curiosity from a diverse range of potential buyers, including Qataris and dealers from across the Gulf.

The Future Landscape: A Hub for Art and Dialogue

Art Basel’s CEO, Noah Horowitz, believes the Gulf represents a “turn of the cycle” in the art market, with new audiences and content emerging. The region’s unique blend of ancient traditions and modern innovation, coupled with its growing economic power, positions it as a potential long-term hub for the art world.

Sultan Sooud Al Qassemi, founder of Barjeel Art Foundation, noted that a collective of Gulf cities with diverse cultural attractions creates a more appealing destination than a single location, suggesting a collaborative future for the region’s art scene.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is driving the growth of the art market in the Gulf?

Significant investment in cultural infrastructure, economic diversification efforts, and a growing local collector base are driving the growth.

What makes Art Basel Qatar different from other art fairs?

Art Basel Qatar features an open-format exhibition, a strong focus on regional artists, and a curated theme, departing from the traditional booth structure.

Is the global art market declining overall?

Yes, recent reports indicate a decline in sales in traditional art markets like Europe and North America, prompting a shift towards emerging markets like the Gulf.

What types of art are being showcased in the Gulf region?

A diverse range of art is being showcased, including works by both established international artists and emerging regional talents, with a particular focus on contemporary themes and social issues.

Pro Tip: Keep an eye on emerging artists from the MENASA region – they are poised to become increasingly influential in the global art scene.

What are your thoughts on the shifting art market? Share your insights in the comments below!

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