Lithuania as the Modern Flashpoint: Wargames Reveal NATO Vulnerabilities
A recent military wargame has delivered a stark warning: Russia could achieve significant gains within days of an incursion into a NATO member state. The simulation, conducted by former German and NATO officials, focused on a hypothetical attack on Lithuania, exposing potential weaknesses in the alliance’s response capabilities.
The Marijampole Scenario: A Critical Chokepoint
The wargame envisioned Russia fabricating a “humanitarian crisis” in Kaliningrad as a pretext to seize Marijampole, Lithuania. This city is strategically vital, hosting a key road intersection on the Via Baltica highway, used by both the EU and Ukraine, and a crucial link connecting Russia and Belarus. The exercise, set in October 2026, demonstrated how a relatively small force of 15,000 troops could rapidly gain control of the region.
Hesitation and the Absence of US Leadership
A key finding of the simulation was the potential for hesitancy among NATO members, particularly the United States and Germany. The US declined to invoke Article 5 – the principle of collective defense – while Germany was leisurely to react. A deployed brigade in Lithuania did not intervene after reported Russian drone activity near a military base. This lack of decisive action allowed Russia to achieve its objectives with minimal resistance.
The Russian Perspective: Exploiting Perceived Weaknesses
Franz-Stefan Gady, who played the role of the Russian chief of general staff in the wargame, highlighted the importance of perceived weaknesses. “Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but on what the enemy believes about our will,” he stated. “In the wargame, my “Russian colleagues” and I knew: Germany will hesitate. And this was enough to win.”
Escalating Tensions and Probing NATO Defenses
This wargame isn’t occurring in a vacuum. Recent events suggest a pattern of Russian activity aimed at testing NATO’s resolve. In September 2025, Russian drones violated Polish airspace, prompting a response that triggered a NATO Article 4 consultation. These incursions, along with increased Russian military inventories along NATO borders, signal a growing sense of threat.
Lithuania’s Preparations and the Broader European Context
For Lithuania, bordering Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus, the war in Ukraine has been a wake-up call. The country has been actively preparing for a potential conflict, recognizing its frontline position. The Netherlands Defence Minister has assessed that Russia could mobilize large troop numbers within a year, further emphasizing the urgency of the situation.
What Does This Mean for NATO?
The wargame’s findings raise serious questions about NATO’s preparedness and decision-making processes. The simulation suggests that a swift, decisive response is crucial to deterring Russian aggression. Hesitation or a lack of unity could have catastrophic consequences.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is Article 5 of the NATO treaty? Article 5 states that an attack against one member is considered an attack against all.
- What is Kaliningrad? Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave located between Lithuania and Poland.
- What is the Via Baltica? The Via Baltica is a major highway connecting Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
- Who conducted the wargame? The wargame was conducted by the German Wargaming Center of the Helmut-Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces, along with newspaper Die Welt.
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Did you understand? Lithuania declared a state of emergency in February 2022 in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, demonstrating its proactive approach to regional security.
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