India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.9 children per woman, falling below the 2.1 replacement level required to maintain a stable population. According to the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) report released last month by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, this shift marks a significant demographic change for the world’s most populous nation, raising concerns about future labour shortages and an ageing society.
What factors are driving the fertility decline?
The decline in fertility is linked to increased access to education, greater availability of contraceptives, and the rising economic cost of raising children, according to Dipa Sinha, a development economist. Household agency and shifting economic realities have made family planning a priority for many. Additionally, improved healthcare outcomes have played a role. The latest SRS report highlights a decline in infant mortality, which dropped from 30 per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 24 per 1,000 in 2024.
Regional disparities remain stark. India’s poorest states, such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, report higher fertility rates of 2.9 and 2.6, respectively. Conversely, New Delhi registered a rate of 1.2, while southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu recorded 1.3. Sinha notes that southern states have historically developed faster in terms of both economic indicators and the status of women in society.
In the 2000s, India’s Total Fertility Rate was approximately 3.3 births per woman, significantly higher than the current 1.9 recorded in the most recent demographic survey.
What are the consequences for the economy?
India has been in a “demographic dividend” phase since 2005, a period where the working-age population (15-64 years) outnumbers children and the elderly. According to the UNFPA, this window is expected to last until 2055. However, experts warn that a shrinking workforce could prevent the country from fully capitalizing on this phase.
If fertility rates continue to fall, India faces the prospect of an ageing population within 30 to 40 years. Sinha explains that a smaller workforce will struggle to support an increasing number of elderly citizens who are no longer active in the labour market. This mirrors challenges seen in other Asian nations; for instance, the World Bank reports China’s fertility rate at 1.0, while the United Nations places South Korea’s rate at approximately 0.75.
How is the government responding?
While no nationwide policy exists to address the decline, individual states are experimenting with incentives. Andhra Pradesh recently announced that families will receive 30,000 rupees ($314) for a third child and 40,000 rupees ($418) for a fourth. Other states, including Goa, Karnataka, and Telangana, have introduced state-funded IVF centres to assist parents.
Political tensions are also rising regarding how population data influences federal funding. The upcoming “delimitation” process, which will assign parliamentary seats based on new census data, has sparked fears that southern states may see their political representation reduced due to their lower population growth. Furthermore, while the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has faced criticism for fanning stereotypes about Muslim population growth, government data indicates that fertility rates are falling across all religious groups; for example, the Muslim fertility rate dropped from 4.41 to 2.36 between 1992 and 2021.
The transition from a “population explosion” narrative to one of managed decline requires a fundamental shift in public policy. As the demographic dividend nears its projected 2055 end, the focus must move toward social security, pension stability, and healthcare for an ageing demographic to ensure economic sustainability.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the replacement level for a population?
The replacement level is 2.1 children per woman, which is the benchmark needed to keep a population stable in the long run.
Are fertility rates falling only among specific religious groups?
No. According to government data, fertility rates are falling across all religious groups in India, with the Muslim fertility rate declining from 4.41 to 2.36 between 1992 and 2021.
Why are some Indian states offering cash incentives for more children?
States like Andhra Pradesh are providing financial support for third and fourth children to encourage population growth in response to local fertility rates that have fallen to 1.4.
How might shifting demographic trends reshape the economic relationship between India’s northern and southern states in the coming decades?
