“We will return to last year’s production volumes in 2021”

Minister of Industry Denis Manturov on investments in the fight against cove, support for the automobile industry and certification of the “21st Century Mainline Aircraft” – MS-21

Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov / Press service of the Ministry of Industry and Trade

The deficit of protective masks and the main anti-malarial drug used to treat COVID-19 has been overcome, says Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov. Masks are produced and imported so much that stocks become too large, and investments in such production become risky. In an interview with Vedomosti, he also talked about how much production will fall and when industrial production will resume, why the first deliveries of the MS-21 aircraft will once again be postponed, and shared his vision of the work of trade missions, which was criticized by Federation Council Chairman Valentina Matvienko.

– In the Ministry of Industry and Trade, as I see it, the most stringent protection measures are masks, gloves, suits at the entrance of medical workers, temperature measurement, disinfection. Moreover, you are almost the “main violator” of the regime of self-isolation – judging by the news, you have more meetings and trips than all colleagues in the government. Are not you afraid of infection?

– For the first month, approximately from the second decade of March, I definitely did not go anywhere because we spent the day and spent the night in the ministry – it was not time for trips, and there was no need, because only the process of restructuring on new tracks was going on. Why then so many trips? Two reasons. First: in the online format it is impossible to inspect the production and make adjustments. It must be said that in almost all enterprises where I was, certain recommendations or changes in production logistics needed to be made. And the second reason: I could not personally thank the collectives of workers who reacted so responsibly to the tasks set for organizing the production of the entire anticode nomenclature.

At the Ministry of Industry and Trade, we are all regularly tested, and over the entire period the ministry’s team has probably only a few cases of cases, each of us is an emergency. And the units where the employees fell ill, we immediately completely removed to a remote site, provided quarantine. Well, the divided flows, access control, protection in the ministry and business trips – this is with us from the first day.

Unplanned investments

– Since the beginning of the pandemic, there have been complaints, especially from the regions, about the lack of the most widely used medicine in the treatment of COVID-19 – the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine. Foreign manufacturers, such as the French Sanofi, discussed the possibility of increasing imports. How did you solve the problem?

– Hydroxychloroquine was practically not produced in Russia, but they managed to solve the issue of support, first of all, on their own. Thus, Biocom, a member of AFK Sistema, increased its output by 173 times and produced 800,000 packages in April and May, and another 320,000 packages in June. Later, Nanolek launched its production – 130,000 packages in June. Therefore, I can say that the current needs of our country in hydroxychloroquine are completely closed. If it is needed more, we have already insured ourselves and have worked out the organization of production of the drug at the facilities of the Kurgan plant Sintez (also owned by AFK Sistema). With a complete reprofiling for the production of hydroxychloroquine, the plant will be able to produce over 1 million packages of the drug per month from July 2020. All these production sites are included in the registration certificate, so there will be no problems with the operational launch of production.

As regards imports, he helped with another drug, Pharmstandard, agreed with the Swiss Hoffmann, La Roche, and in May imported more of the tocilizumab drug used for rheumatoid arthritis than last year.

– How much did Russian enterprises invest in the production of medicines for coronavirus and personal protective equipment?

– The government allocated 25 billion rubles to the Ministry of Industry and Trade to stimulate output growth and the development of new drugs. These funds were fully distributed in the form of soft loans from our Industrial Development Fund (FRP) back in May. Including 4 billion rubles. went on to develop the personal protective equipment industry. Moreover, the FRP for the first time in history credited not only the development of fixed assets, part of the money was issued for the purchase of raw materials. It was a comprehensive team work, which gave a quick result. We, together with Russian companies, promptly made decisions, made weekly plans for the release of drugs, redistributed production volumes in order to quickly fill the market with the necessary drugs.

– The release of what other drugs could the industry increase?

– The most significant growth was shown, of course, by hydroxychloroquine, I already talked about it. At the same time, in January-May, Farmsintez produced 25% more calidavir (an analogue of the drug kaletra, the initial indication for which was HIV) than for the entire last year. In April, the production of linezolid antibiotic doubled its production in the first quarter of 2019.

– Are Russian companies developing drugs against coronavirus? Does the Ministry of Industry and Trade support them?


In the “Children’s world” has become freer, a merchant

  1. In the “Children’s world” has become freer Kommersant
  2. The largest shareholders of “Children’s world” has sold to investors of 15.94% of the retailer RBC
  3. The Russian stock market opened weak growth of the RTS and Mosberg Interfax
  4. AFK “System” and RCIF sell about 15% of the “Children’s world” Kommersant
  5. AFK “System” and RCIF will offer investors a little less than 16% of the “Children’s world” RBC
  6. Look up “Google news”


The largest shareholders of “Children’s world” has sold to investors of 15.94% retailer :: Business :: RBC

After completion of the transaction, the share of AFK “Sistema” in the company’s share capital will amount to 20, and 38% (with 33,38%), the proportion of RCIF to 4.62% (7,56%). The volume of shares in free float will amount to 75%.

Global co-sponsors and bookrunners of the offering are Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited, Goldman Sachs International, Sberbank CIB and “VTB Capital”. Also bookrunner of the deal were Alfa-Bank.

The selling shareholders have made commitments to netcasting of shares (lock-up) within 90 calendar days from the date of completion of the offering.

AFK “System” and RCIF will offer investors a little less than 16% of the “Children’s world”

“Significant interest in the proposal reflects the fundamental investment appeal of “Children’s world”. In growth and an increasing contribution of online sales channels, confirming the correctness of the strategic choice omnichannel model. We have always been convinced that all of the stakeholders interested in improving the liquidity of the stock, and doing everything necessary”, — said the President of AFK “Sistema” Vladimir Chirkov, he was quoted as saying in a statement.

Chirkov noted earlier, the liquidity of the company grew thanks to the SPO in 2019. Then almost a quarter of the shares of the retailer were sold for 15.9 billion. Now with the increase in the proportion of shares in free float the company’s liquidity will increase significantly.

“Placing shares “Children’s World” was the first successful placement of Russian securities this year. […] We see tremendous interest and opportunities for Russian companies going public and raising capital from leading international investors despite the global impact of the pandemic,” — said Dmitriev.

“AFK “System” remains a major shareholder of “Children’s world” and will continue to support its strategic development aimed at strengthening leadership in the market, the development of online sales channels and expanding the geography of presence”, — said the President of the company.

As at 31 may 2020 “Children’s world” ruled 851 store in Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. In addition to the flagship brand, the retailer is engaged in the development of networks ELC, ABC, and shops of products for animals “Tozeur”. In the first quarter of 2020 revenue the retail chain “Detskiy Mir” has grown by 11.2% year-on-year and amounted to 31 billion rubles.


Ex-Advisor of George Soros explained the interest of the billionaire Tudor Jones to bitcoins

A former adviser to George Soros said that “not surprised” the investment of a trader and the billionaire Paul Tudor Jones in bitcoin, given the current monetary policy, according to Cointhelegraph.

Important, HES a close contact with Tudor Jones when he was engaged in trading.

He noted the similarity of mentalities, the founder of hedge Fund Tudor Investment and investors like Soros, Louis bacon and Julian Robertson.

“They look at the long term and catch the big trend. Paul Tudor accession to the world of scriptaction means that he is serious about the problems of inflation in the world and believes that digital currencies thrive in such conditions”, — said the HES.

It is quite natural that the new money that Central banks are flooding the markets, go to the cryptocurrency and bitcoin as “digital gold,” he added.

Paul Tudor Jones last month said it is considering trade bitcoin futures as insurance against inflation. He later confirmed that holding the first cryptocurrency 1-2% of their assets. The condition of the Floor Tudor is estimated at $5.1 billion

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France-The palais de justice, Nîmes, france cordoned off after shots – press

PARIS, June 12 (Reuters) – The palais de justice, Nîmes was completed Friday morning by the police after the death of a man by a firearm in the hall of the court of appeal, reports the AFP.

Gunshots were heard within the precincts of the palace of justice to 08: 30 and a major police operation was deployed in the vicinity of the court of appeal and the court specifies on its side, the Midi Free.

Local police forces have confirmed on Twitter that security operations were underway at the palais de justice, Nîmes, france, asking people to avoid the area.

(Writing from Paris)


Sberbank has agreed to buy service 2GIS :: Business :: RBC

German Gref — of the ecosystems, and privacy on the Internet. Full video

2GIS ranked sixth in the ranking of most expensive companies of the Russian Internet according to Forbes, with a valuation of $320 million According to its own data service that spans 486 cities in 11 countries with a monthly audience of 2GIS is about 50 million users.

According to Mediascope, the last time 2GIS ranked in the TOP 10 most popular Internet holding companies in June of 2019 — its monthly national audience via desktops and mobile devices in major cities were $ 19.7 million. According to the latest available data of the meter in March 2020, it was lower — 17,767 million people. For comparison, the audience of the services of the savings Bank for the same periods increased by almost half — from 35,405 million to 71,610 million, respectively.

Sberbank has invested $1 billion in the development of non-banking ecosystem

As told Sysoev in the fall of 2019, earns service mainly on advertising. “About 23% in the structure of revenues comprise revenues from franchisees and sales data <…> But in the long run the affiliate program will also generate a decent income,” he pointed out.

As an example of such programs Sysoev called the integration of taxi services, “the opportunity to study prices and select the accommodation from the database of the service CYANOGEN, book a hotel room through Booking”: “Partners get more audience and pay us for the traffic.” In a significant increase of service income from the sale of data Sysoev at that time did not believe: “advertising Revenues are growing. Segment sales data is growing faster, but it is unlikely to overtake revenues from advertising. Here different capacity market companies interested in advertising, more than those who need geo-data”.

The structure of the deal

The transaction will also participate a joint venture of Sberbank and Mail.ru Group in the field of food and transport, OOO “О2О holding” (О2О). Following the transaction, Sberbank’s share is 72%, while the share О2О — 3%, the founders and management will retain 25% of the company. The Board of Directors of 2GIS will include representatives of Sberbank and the founders of the service. The closing of the transaction is expected after obtaining permission from the Federal Antimonopoly service and “fulfilment of suspensive condition” (what the parties at the time of publication is not explained), in the third quarter of 2020.

Why 2GIS needed to Sberbank

Integration with 2GIS will accelerate the development of various lines of business of Sberbank, its ecosystem, and the joint venture of Sberbank and Mail.ru Group, such as “SELOGICA”, “Carmarket”, “Citymobil”, Delivery Club, SberFood, “Scooter” and others. In addition, the 2GIS services will be integrated with the Bank applications for individuals and corporate clients.

Sberbank decided on the term rebranding of their ecosystem

As told earlier Sysoev, at 2GIS there is an affiliate program—through an application service you can order a taxi, book a hotel room, choosing a property, etc., However, the company lacked an internal payment system that could provide the savings Bank. According to him, initially 2GIS negotiated with the Bank as part of the partnership regarding the payment system.

Designed partnership with Sberbank and the creation of the marketplace platform services. As told earlier Sysoev, the idea to make 2GIS marketplace grew from his student days, appeared in 1997. “I ran to the attic with the slogan “Want to know where the cheaper “instant noodles”!”. It was the basic formulation of what was to be our guide for the user”, — he said.

2GIS plans to become a marketplace not only for large companies but also for local businesses that are not represented in the online space, specified in the message about the deal.

Sberbank and the Russian Internet

Among the partners and investment Sberbank — many of the largest Russian Internet-companies and projects:

  • About the joint venture of Sberbank and Mail.Ru Group announced in the summer of last year — the total value of its assets by the parties was estimated at more than 100 billion rubles. Mail.Ru Group, in particular, contributed to the JV of shares in the delivery service Delivery Club and the taxi service “Citymobil”, the savings Bank share in the company’s Foodplex. In April it became known that SP is a Bank and Mail.Ru Group intends to acquire 75.6% of the grocery online store with Express shipping “Scooter”.
  • Previously, the Bank established a joint venture with a competitor Mail.Ru Group — “Yandex”. In General, the project “Yandex.Market” the state Bank has invested 30 billion rubles. the Second project is “Yandex.Money.” In June 2020, it became known that the company is preparing to split the joint venture. The representative of “Yandex”, told RBC that the company is really discussing a possible restructuring of its ownership in joint ventures, but did not specify details. As reported sources of The Bell, the savings Bank will receive shares of the it company “Yandex.Money” and “Yandex” will retain the “Yandex.Market.”
  • In August 2019, the savings Bank has bought a 46.5% Rambler Group. Recently it became known that the Bank can increase its stake to control.
  • Sberbank is also negotiating to purchase about 30% of online retailer Ozon.


Oil backed by dividends – Kommersant newspaper No. 81 (6802) dated 05/12/2020

Over the past week, funds from developed countries lost about $ 12 billion of investments, emerging markets funds lost almost $ 4.5 billion. International investors are withdrawing from their restored value in anticipation of a global economic downturn. Enviable stability is demonstrated by Russian funds, interest in which is supported by positive dynamics in oil prices and upcoming dividend payments.

International investors have stepped out of stocks, according to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR). According to Kommersant’s estimates, based on Bank of America data (taking into account EPFR data), for the week ending May 6, customers of all equity funds took away $ 16.3 billion. This result is 2.5 times more than the week-ago indicator and the maximum since the end Martha. At the same time, the main outflow of funds fell on the funds of developed countries. According to EPFR, it exceeded $ 11.7 billion, which is 3.5 times more than a week ago. Most actively, investors withdrew money from US funds – according to EPFR, about $ 9.3 billion was taken from US funds, almost six times more than a week earlier. The outflow from European funds slowed from $ 2.7 billion to $ 1.8 billion.

In less than two months, thanks to massive financial support from the central banks of leading countries, stock indices have recovered a significant part of their losses. So, the S&P 500 index won back 60% of the March fall, and the MSCI EM index – over 40%. According to Valery Vaysberg, Director of the Analytical Department of the Region Group of Companies, global stock markets have achieved the goals of corrective movement and now investors are taking profit.

At the same time, concern about weak macroeconomic data published in various countries is only growing.

In particular, unemployment in the US in April rose to a record 14.7%, that is, 20.5 million people lost their jobs in a month. According to Ravil Yusipov, Deputy General Director of the TFG Management Company, after a quick rebound, many investment houses made statements that the stock market is in the largest discrepancy with the forecasted profit levels and its multiples look unreasonably high. “There is growth in quantitative terms, but the quality of growth is low,” notes Mr. Yusipov.

Prospects for reducing demand from developed economies lead to the withdrawal of investors from the markets of developing countries. According to EPFR, in the reporting week, funds whose investment policy is focused on emerging markets lost almost $ 4.5 billion against $ 3.4 billion a week earlier. The largest outflow of funds in the BRIC countries came from the funds of China ($ 1.5 billion) and Brazil ($ 328 million).

Russian funds stood out from the overall picture, the net inflow of which amounted to $ 16 million per week (a week earlier, $ 5 million was withdrawn from them).

Analysts attribute the interest shown to the recovery in oil prices. According to Reuters, quotes for the nearest Brent oil futures have been holding at $ 30 per barrel for a week already. The cost of Russian Urals oil is around $ 25 per barrel. In addition, investors expect dividend payments for the year for Russian issuers. “The Russian market pretty well experienced the April fall in oil prices, not least due to the expected payment of high dividends for 2019 and the activity of local investors. Forecasts on the profits of the largest issuers, although they suggest a significant decrease, remain positive, which allows counting on dividends for 2020, unlike many foreign companies, ”says Valery Vaysberg.

Further development of the market situation will be determined by the generosity of leading financial regulators. In particular, market participants do not exclude that the US Federal Reserve, following the example of the ECB, may for the first time in history lower its key rate below zero by December this year. This is evidenced by futures on the federal funds rate. “The money wall from global regulators is able to give confidence to investors. Russian stocks remain attractive – oil prices have moved away from the lows, and the securities themselves look cheap as a result of the weakening ruble, ”said Ravil Yusipov. However, according to him, so far “the current inflow into Russian funds looks more like a niche than a long-term trend.”

Vitaliy Gaidaev


Sawiris talks about investment opportunities in aviation and tourism .. He says Barr

07:24 PM

Wednesday 06 May 2020

Cairo (agencies)
Senior businessman Naguib Sawiris said that oil prices will rise soon, and that airlines and tourism will recover again after the emerging crisis of the Corona virus pandemic that caused the economy to stop in the world.

The statements of the Egyptian investor come against the expectations of many about the global economy, including American billionaire Warren Buffett, who announced that his company sold its stake in an airline in the past days.

Sawiris told CNBC that the oil prices will jump soon, expecting that the price of a barrel will exceed the $ 100 barrier within a year and a half. He also indicated that he sees a prosperous future in the aviation, tourism and internet sectors.

“With every crisis there is an opportunity, you can go and buy (shares) of an airline today for a dollar if you pay your debts,” Sawiris said.

The American network said that the shares prices of many airlines in the United States fell due to the sharp decline in demand for their services and the disruption of travel to many destinations in the world due to the pandemic of the Corona virus, which forced almost all of the world’s countries to impose major restrictions on travel.

More than three and a half million people have been infected with Covid-19 disease caused by the Corona virus, as well as the death of a quarter of a million people worldwide so far.

The Chairman and CEO of Orascom Investment Holding expressed agreement with US President Donald Trump about his administration’s work to reopen the US economy.

“This is one of the few times that Trump is right … Maybe they will not find treatment, and they may not find the vaccine, so for how long will we remain locked in our homes?” Sawiris said.

Sawiris considered the so-called oil price war a calculated attempt to kill the shale oil industry in the United States, adding that the Saudis understood the matter with regard to oil in the long run.

In response to a question about whether oil would fall to the levels reached if the OPEC agreement was reached in March, Sawiris said that prices would have declined anyway due to lower consumption, but they would not have fallen to this level.

He added: “I think it was calculated, the price will rise to above 50 and 60 dollars a barrel, so I really think that after 18 months from now the price of oil will reach 100 dollars.”

Oil prices jumped 20 percent on Tuesday, with some countries slowly starting to reopen their economies after months of closings due to the virus.


The fall of the ruble prompted private investors to change strategies :: St. Petersburg :: RBC

At the same time, the activation of private investors during the period of market turbulence was almost not accompanied by panic throws, but was often associated with an attempt to use a convenient moment to maximize potential profitability. “We observed deliberate, prudent actions by clients to rebalance their portfolios,” describes VTB Capital Investments Chief Executive Officer, Senior Vice President, Head of VTB Brokerage Services Vladimir Potapov. “Customers behaved quite calmly during the collapse of the market as a whole. We believe that many investors have learned the lessons of previous crises and learned not to go into a state of panic with strong movements in the market. Moreover, we noticed an influx of new customers who came to the market to take advantage of the current low prices for the purchase of assets, ”Aisha Kubezova shares observations.

“In general, customers reacted very correctly,” agrees Vsevolod Lobov, Investment Director of UK Dokhod. “Closing portfolios is usually a consequence of the insufficiency or absence of an airbag.”

Escaping Profitability

The influx of private investors into the stock market as a result of the search for alternative bank deposits options for investing took shape in the trend at the turn of 2017-2018. By that time, the Russian Central Bank had achieved obvious successes in the field of inflation targeting, which led to a stable decrease in interest rates. The inflation target declared by the Central Bank is 4%. According to official figures, at the end of 2019, this figure dropped to about 3%, although this year, for obvious reasons, the price increase may accelerate. However, the final indicator, according to analysts of the Central Bank, will not deviate significantly from the given reference point. In this case, bank deposit rates are unlikely to exceed 6% per annum.

This level is unattractive for customers of Russian banks who are accustomed to saving funds at a double-digit or almost double-digit percentage. The search for alternative investment options is a natural reaction in this case. Moreover, we are talking mainly about clients who, until recently, were not even interested in investment instruments.

The influx of private investors into the stock market as a result of the search for alternative bank deposits options for investing took shape in the trend at the turn of 2017-2018.

“The yield of the deposit at the level of 5-6% per annum ceases to be attractive to individual customers. Therefore, we expect that the demand for investment instruments will increase, ”said Darina Khokhlushina, Deputy Director of Raiffeisenbank’s North-West Retail Center for Retail Business.

“It must be understood that rates in dollars and euros will be pushed to zero for a very long time, and rates in rubles will not repeat the history of 2014-2015,” says Alexey Teploukhov, vice president of Bank Saint Petersburg. “As a result, the attractiveness of financial market instruments can significantly increase, taking into account the returns that we see now.”

An additional stimulating factor in the growth of private investment in the stock market, according to Darina Khokhlushina, was a low threshold for entry and universal digitalization, which facilitated the opening of accounts and transactions. “In the structure of demand, 60% falls on investments in mutual investment funds (UIFs), 20% each on opening a brokerage account and trust management together with an individual investment account (IIA),” Darina Khokhlushina, statistics of Raiffeisenbank, cites.

“Over the past 3 years, the trust market has been growing at a record pace. And this growth is provided precisely by private investors, who, during the period of lowering deposit rates, are looking for alternative and more profitable options for their investments. Both the number of customers and the volume of their assets in recent years have grown several times, ”says Andrei Makarov, head of the Sberbank Asset Management sales department.

Market participants believe that market instability will not stop the continued influx of private investors into the stock market. “2020 as a whole will be very successful for investment products,” predicts Vsevolod Lobov. “This, among other things, will be facilitated by the upcoming increase in taxes on deposits.” Aisha Kubezova claims that some clients are already transferring their assets to the stock market in order to obtain increased returns against the backdrop of the introduction of a tax on deposits. Andrei Makarov, in turn, believes that a tax on deposits will make investments of a term of three years or more more interesting due to the privilege on long-term ownership of Russian securities, in which income up to 3 million rubles per year is not subject to personal income tax.

Attach and expand

The development of an investment culture also implies a change in the attitude of the mass investor to various instruments offered by market participants. “At the first stage, in 2017–2018, customers actively invested in instruments investing in bonds. They regarded them as the most close to deposits instruments in the stock market. Bonds are a conservative tool, their price fluctuations are much lower than in stocks, issuers commit themselves to return 100% of the cost and pay interest, ”Andrei Makarov shares his observations.

The development of an investment culture also implies a change in the attitude of the mass investor to various instruments offered by market participants.

However, he continues, after a brief but sharp decline in the debt market in 2018, many customers realized that it was necessary to diversify their investments: someone transferred part of the funds to equity funds, but most prefer mixed funds and strategies, that is, those that invest both in stocks and bonds.

“Now an individual investment account with a ready-made strategy is in active demand among customers. It does not require any special knowledge from a person – you just need to choose a strategy, then everything is done by professional financiers, ”notes Andrey Makarov.

Interestingly, the two-millionth IIS was opened literally in early April by a client of VTB Bank from the Sverdlovsk Region. A special case only emphasizes the general trend: according to VTB representatives, we are talking about a new participant in the financial market, who had never before tried his hand at investing. The growing popularity of individual investment accounts is due to tax deductions: the holder of the IIA is given the right to return 13% of the paid income tax from an annual contribution of up to 400 thousand rubles (that is, up to 52 thousand rubles per year) or to receive an exemption from taxation of the total amount of income earned on the IIA (when closing the account).

According to Aleksey Teploukhov, Bank Saint Petersburg clients were most often interested in ruble bond strategies (through mutual funds, trust management, IMS) with yield to maturity exceeding bank deposit rates by 2-3 percentage points, and also presented demand for portfolios of Eurobonds in dollars and euros with an expected return of 4-5%. “Structural notes in currencies with an expected return of 8-10% with conditional capital protection, withstanding a 50% drop in the stock market on the horizon for 5 years, were also of interest,” adds Alexey Teploukhov.

The events of March-April 2020 provided additional food for thought by private investors. “Obviously, stock portfolios have been hit hardest. A serious drop in prices is also observed, for example, in the segment of high-yield eurobonds (high-yield), for which there was a very high demand in 2019, ”says Alexey Teploukhov. Funds and management strategies that involve investments in euro-denominated Eurobonds, as well as funds investing in gold, are best shown. “Investors see gold as a protective asset, and in periods of fluctuation, demand for it increases sharply,” Andrei Makarov explains.

“Regardless of the type of product / asset, a conservative investment strategy (in bonds) implies a ruble yield of 7-8% per annum, a balanced strategy (70-80% of the portfolio in bonds, the rest in shares) – 10-12%, and aggressive strategy (100% in shares) – from 20% ”, – Darina Khokhlushina marks the benchmarks.

Play for long

As for the yield of foreign currency instruments, in conservative funds of Eurobonds the yield of securities to maturity is now at the level of 5-7% in US dollars. “Such a high level of yield to maturity for dollar bonds in foreign currency is associated with a significant reduction in their prices during March. On the horizon of three or more years, an investor should focus on a range of 3-5% per annum in dollars, ”explains Andrey Makarov. Products that exhibit higher levels of risk, such as stocks or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for stock indices or high-yielding bonds, can achieve double-digit returns in foreign currency. “But you should always remember that the risks of reducing the value of the portfolio of such instruments are proportional,” warns Andrei Makarov. However, he is convinced that now on the market there really is a good opportunity to buy quality assets at good prices. Alexey Teploukhov agrees with this statement: “We do not know when the fall will end, but obviously the crisis is a unique chance for a significant increase in the potential return on our investments. Such a chance occurs every 5-10 years. ”

“However, one must be prepared that the period of fluctuations will continue for some time. Therefore, it is now better to enter the market in parts at regular intervals, thus averaging the price of entry (so as not to try to find the “bottom”, because this is impossible). And you also need to invest at least for a period of 1 year, and preferably 2-3 years, ”advises Andrei Makarov.

“Regardless of investment instruments, currency diversification is a traditional approach to preserving savings,” Darina Khokhlushina shares recommendations. – Under current conditions, assets in rubles bring profitability, and the currency part will help to keep them from impairment. If you earn in rubles and plan large purchases, then it makes sense to keep in the national currency 40-50% of the funds, 25-30% in dollars and euros. About 20% of the assets should be freely available in case of unforeseen expenses. This problem is solved by the savings account, the yield on which is 5-6% per annum, and withdrawals and replenishment are not limited. This is a simple tool for flexible savings management. ”

Repeat publication of 04/22/2020


Russian industry plunged into depression

In April, Russian industry fully felt the “cold breath” of the viral crisis and the consequences of the authorities ’struggle against it – demand collapsed on a scale comparable to the 2008 crisis, a survey of industrial enterprises conducted by the Institute of Economic Policy named. Gaidar. If in 2008 companies recorded a decrease in demand since September and in a few months it reached a peak of 60 points (in the absence of a sharp increase or decrease in demand, the indicator is zero), in 2020 only in April the index dropped to 45 points. The expected decline in demand may exceed its decline in the 2008–2009 crisis, warns Sergei Tsukhlo, head of the Gaidar Institute’s market research laboratory.

Next, industrial production will begin to fall, a survey showed. The surveyed enterprises are already recording a drop in production – their output estimate for April fell by 50 points. In the 2008 crisis, the indicator fell to 60 points in just three months. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, in March Russian industry escaped a recession – industrial production grew by 0.3% on an annualized basis, but the industry was supported by a rush of demand for essential goods and goods. For example, buckwheat production immediately increased by 41%, and pharmaceutical products – by 64%. But the main drop will be in April – May, warned the director of the Center for Market Studies of the Higher School of Economics Georgy Ostapkovich.

So far, the enterprises themselves assess their financial situation as “good” and “satisfactory” (such estimates prevail over “bad” and “extremely bad”). But they expect it to deteriorate in the future – the expectations of entrepreneurs have never fallen so much. “Neither such a difference nor such a result has been recorded by polls,” admits Tsukhlo. With worsening expectations, the business began to postpone investments. The balance of investment intentions in April decreased by 40 points and already exceeded the worst point of the crisis of 2015-2016, when investment optimism was declining due to sanctions.

The number of companies reporting staff reductions has also increased record-breaking. Such an increase in the rate of change in the actual number of employees has also never been observed, notes Tsukhlo. In 2008, such a failure in evaluating entrepreneurs took half a year. True, the scale of layoffs is likely to decrease in May-June, although given the decline in demand and output, companies are unlikely to need so many employees. The shortage of personnel, which was recorded by the Institute’s polls, was replaced by their excess. Only 6% of enterprises reported a lack of personnel – this is the minimum since the 1998 default, a survey indicates.

Such negative results are not surprising, says Valery Mironov, deputy director of the Institute for the Development of the Higher School of Economics. The daily economic stress index calculated by the Development Center has long been at the level of 0.4-0.5, which indicates the pre-recession stage. “All crises began with such a significance,” warns Mironov.

But the labor market is not as catastrophic as the survey shows. His data speak of the intentions of enterprises, that is, they reflect the panic of the heads of enterprises, says Rostislav Kapelyushnikov, deputy director of the Center for Labor Studies of the Higher School of Economics. Such sentiments were also in the crisis of 2008-2009, and this is an encouraging sign, since there was no catastrophic increase in unemployment and a drop in employment then, he says. The Russian labor market is specific, employers do not like to lay off workers, preferring to reduce wages or shorten working hours, reminds Kapelyushnikov. There is hope that they will do the same in this crisis, he adds. In addition, the danger does not come from large enterprises, but from small and medium-sized enterprises, which can simply close, but how many of them will be impossible to predict now, all forecasts about it now are nothing more than fortunetelling on coffee grounds, he emphasizes.