Shop pharmacy: Corona fear and MDAX admission

The trading tip of the day this time is Shop Apotheke. The news flow has been positive recently. At the beginning of the week, the share was included in the MDAX. With the newly flaring up corona fears, there is currently another price driver.

Maximilian Völkl from the investor magazine DER AKTIONÄR with all the details about the trading tip of the day. With which product you can benefit from the future development of the value, you can find out in this video.

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The crisis of Ray Dalio, the king of funds: his investors have already withdrawn $ 3.5 billion

The firm, which manages $ 148 billion in assets, it is going through the biggest crisis of the last decade.

As reported by the Bloomberg agency, only in the month of August Pure Alpha II, the company’s flagship fund, suffered a drop of 18.6%. At the same time, rivals Caxton Associates and Brevan Howard Asset Management made big profits.

One of Bridgewater’s big problems, they say, is that its computer models misinterpreted the markets, prompting its large clients to start withdrawing their money. During the first 7 months of the year, investors took $ 3.5 billion in what appears as a trend with an uncertain ending.

In addition, Dalio fired dozens of his employees and lost a lawsuit with his former employees.

Although he still relies on his ability and the Bridgewater to make a profit. “For something we are the largest investment fund. We have never had a bad year, they have all been positive, but we knew that this day would come. We lost the evolution of the pandemic and this is the reality“acknowledged the billionaire in an interview with Bloomberg.

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Alsea (Vips, Starbucks) closes all its Wagamama Asian food restaurants

Ahead of

Alsea Iberia, the restaurant group that operates chain restaurants such as Vips, Starbucks, Domino’s Pizza The Foster’s Hollywood, has definitively closed its Asian food restaurants Wagamama.

Group sources confirm the closure: “Alsea Spain has decided not proceed to reopening of the three Wagamama restaurants that operated in Madrid. This decision corresponds to a portfolio rationalization exercise of the group, which is focusing its efforts on promoting its main brands. “

The establishments of the British brand were provisionally closed as a result of the confinement measures decreed by the Government with the state of alarm to face the crisis of the coronavirus. Not surprisingly, Alsea had to bring 22,000 workers to ERTE. However, after that period, the owners of the company have decided not to reopen.

However, from the company, they clarify that “the Wagamama brand, based in the United Kingdom, will study reopening new restaurants in Spain in the future“But, for now, lovers of oriental food will no longer be able to go to these establishments. The current crisis is hitting the hospitality sector hard, so some businessmen are opting for closure.

In any case, Wagamama was already in Alsea’s crosshairs. In fact, in February of this year, before the pandemic hit, Mexican investors already three other open establishments closed for this brand in Madrid. Then they closed the one on Calle Serrano, the one located on Calle Génova and the one in Parque Sur de Leganés, according to ‘Cinco Días’.

Now those on Calle Antonio López, Calle Princesa and the Equinoccio de Majadahonda shopping center are closed. Sigla, the previous owner of Grupo Vips, bet on the brand Wagamama since 2017.

His goal then was to open 20 stores between Spain and Portugal. In 2018, it reached six stores in Madrid. Later, after the sale of Vips to Alsea for 500 million euros, as advanced El Confidencial, the closures began, which now culminate with the closure of the last three that were operational. The restaurants gave 2.5 million euros of losses in 2017 and 2018. In January, Alsea closed the Argentine restaurants in La Vaca.

Now, the company wants focus on the more established brands. At the moment, Alsea has not revealed what it intends to do with the premises where these Wagamama establishments were, if it will stop operating them or choose to put one of its other brands.

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Rolls-Royce detects cracks in its most successful aircraft engine

Yesterday Rolls-Royce sought to reassure customers and investors after discovering cracks in the compressor blades used in its large Trent XWB engine that powers the Airbus A350 wide-body aircraft.

The company, which has already spent billions of dollars to solve a series of problems with the Trent 1000 engine that uses the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, said that signs of wear were identified on the intermediate pressure compressor blades of “a small number of engines (XWB) that have been in service for four or five years ”.

This is the first time that durability problems have been identified in the group’s newest and most successful engine. The discovery is another blow for the company that last week saw its shares plummet to the lowest level in more than a decade.

There are approximately 800 Trent XWB engines, including spare ones, with 100 already in use for four years or more. Cracks are known to have been discovered in one or two blades of around 20 engines during routine inspections in early July.

None of the Trent XWB-84 engines experienced any problems during the flights, the group said, but all those with a similar service life will be inspected.

The statement comes a day before Europe’s safety regulator is due to issue an airworthiness directive requiring inspections. Rolls-Royce said it wants to anticipate possible speculation.

“We do not expect this issue to create significant customer disruption or material annual cost,” Rolls-Royce noted. The costs are estimated at less than 50 million pounds. Newer engines were also inspected and no problems were identified.

Sandy Morris, an aerospace analyst at Jefferies, commented that “clearly there is no good news.” Rolls-Royce is likely to develop a longer term solution than simply replacing the blades, as it did with the Trent 1000. “We felt the day would come when premature wear would be found on a Trent XWB engine,” he said. “Given the scrutiny the XWB has likely undergone, our immediate reaction is more along the lines of ‘is that it?’

Scrutiny of the XWB intensified after problems with the Trent 1000 engine were discovered in 2017. In February, Warren East, Rolls-Royce CEO, mentioned that he was confident that the problems with the Trent 1000 family had been brought under control. Overall, the company has said the cash costs of serial blade problems that grounded hundreds of planes over three years would amount to 2.4 billion pounds between 2017 and 2023.

The company was eager to emphasize that the XWB problem was not of the same magnitude. Unlike the Trent 1000, there were plenty of spare XWB parts and engines, as well as serviceability, to fix any problems quickly, people with knowledge of the situation said. Inspections and repairs could be carried out on the normal schedule for such visits, they added. The largest turbine in the family – the Trent XWB-97, which powers the A350-1000 – is not affected by blade problems, as it has a different engine architecture.

Chris Cholerton, director of Rolls-Royce’s civil aerospace division, noted that the Trent XWB is the most successful engine released by the firm with a reliability of 99.9 percent.

Car sales

China’s auto sales grew 16.4% from a year earlier, linking the fourth consecutive month of earnings.

Increase

According to what was published by Reuters, sales increased to 2.11 million vehicles in July.

Reduction

Still, they fell 12.7% year-to-date to 12.37 million, according to wholesale sales data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, due to the pandemic.

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Nornickel could allow new pollution at its enterprise

On the morning of June 28, Novaya Gazeta published a video of how water from a sludge pond of the Talnakh concentration plant (located on the Taimyr Peninsula, part of the Polar Division of Norilsk Nickel) flows into the tundra. In the Krasnoyarsk regional department of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, they stated that there is a risk of runoff entering the Kharaelakh River, which flows into Lake Pyasino, RIA Novosti reports. The regional department of the Investigative Committee confirmed to the agency the fact of water discharge and the beginning of verification of these messages. The head of Rosprirodnadzor Svetlana Radionova wrote on her Instagram that due to heavy rains, the water level in the sludge pond increased and the factory dumped water on the adjacent territory.

“The factory management decided to pump out the clarified (purified. – Vedomosti) technical water to the adjacent territory, thereby flagrantly violating the rules for the operation of tailings. Responsible persons of the factory are suspended from work, an internal investigation has begun. There is no threat of waste leakage (tailings), ”the Norilsk Nickel press service said on Sunday.

Rosprirodnadzor took samples at the site of the spill, their results are not yet ready, therefore it is impossible to talk about the scale, the amount of damage and its existence, a spokesman said.

The Norilsk Nickel’s polar branch, which includes the Talnakh factory, provides for the production of more than 70% copper and more than 30% of the platinum group metals of the company. In 2019, Norilsk Nickel produced 499,000 tons of copper, 2.9 million ounces of palladium and 0.7 million ounces of platinum. The largest shareholders of the company are Vladimir Potanin’s Interros (34.6%) and UC Rusal (27.8%) previously controlled by Oleg Deripaska.

On May 29, a much larger emergency occurred in Norilsk: about 20,000 tons of fuel oil spilled from the tank of the Norilsk Nickel TPP-3. The reason is the subsidence of the concrete site of the tank and its subsequent destruction. As a result of the accident, a huge amount of oil products poisoned the soil and fell into water bodies located near the CHPP – two rivers and a lake, providing water to local residents. Potanin at a video conference with Putin promised to eliminate the consequences of the accident at the expense of the company, spending about 10 billion rubles on this. By June 19, Norilsk Nickel had already invested 5 billion rubles. in response to the spill. In addition, Norilsk Nickel promised to send an additional 2.5 billion rubles this year. to check their other facilities, and in the next – another 11 billion. Potanin, because of the accident, even proposed to refuse further payment of dividends in 2020, and limit the total dividends for the year to $ 1 billion.

Spillage of recycled water at the tailings pond is a typical accident for mining enterprises, many factories make such violations on a daily basis, says ACRA analyst Maxim Khudalov. The increased interest in the situation is associated with the recent serious accident at the CHPP, he notes. The consequences and the cost of their liquidation are not comparable; liquidation of an emergency at a concentration plant is unlikely to exceed 30 million rubles, Khudalov estimates. The fine for violations of water circulation will be insignificant – not more than 1 million rubles. “Fines for environmental violations for industrial companies are generally ridiculous: in 2019, 975 million rubles were raised. such fines, this is several times less than the drivers of Moscow paid for violating the speed limit, ”says Khudalov. The fine for the spill of fuel oil on May 29 has not yet been determined.

“Draining water is, of course, not a major accident. But now investors are watching even more closely how Norilsk Nickel is solving environmental issues. In these conditions, even such trifles interest the investment community and can negatively affect the investment attractiveness of the company, ”said Irina Alizarovskaya, analyst at Raiffeisenbank.

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In the “Children’s world” has become freer, a merchant

  1. In the “Children’s world” has become freer Kommersant
  2. The largest shareholders of “Children’s world” has sold to investors of 15.94% of the retailer RBC
  3. The Russian stock market opened weak growth of the RTS and Mosberg Interfax
  4. AFK “System” and RCIF sell about 15% of the “Children’s world” Kommersant
  5. AFK “System” and RCIF will offer investors a little less than 16% of the “Children’s world” RBC
  6. Look up “Google news”

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Oil backed by dividends – Kommersant newspaper No. 81 (6802) dated 05/12/2020

Over the past week, funds from developed countries lost about $ 12 billion of investments, emerging markets funds lost almost $ 4.5 billion. International investors are withdrawing from their restored value in anticipation of a global economic downturn. Enviable stability is demonstrated by Russian funds, interest in which is supported by positive dynamics in oil prices and upcoming dividend payments.

International investors have stepped out of stocks, according to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR). According to Kommersant’s estimates, based on Bank of America data (taking into account EPFR data), for the week ending May 6, customers of all equity funds took away $ 16.3 billion. This result is 2.5 times more than the week-ago indicator and the maximum since the end Martha. At the same time, the main outflow of funds fell on the funds of developed countries. According to EPFR, it exceeded $ 11.7 billion, which is 3.5 times more than a week ago. Most actively, investors withdrew money from US funds – according to EPFR, about $ 9.3 billion was taken from US funds, almost six times more than a week earlier. The outflow from European funds slowed from $ 2.7 billion to $ 1.8 billion.

In less than two months, thanks to massive financial support from the central banks of leading countries, stock indices have recovered a significant part of their losses. So, the S&P 500 index won back 60% of the March fall, and the MSCI EM index – over 40%. According to Valery Vaysberg, Director of the Analytical Department of the Region Group of Companies, global stock markets have achieved the goals of corrective movement and now investors are taking profit.

At the same time, concern about weak macroeconomic data published in various countries is only growing.

In particular, unemployment in the US in April rose to a record 14.7%, that is, 20.5 million people lost their jobs in a month. According to Ravil Yusipov, Deputy General Director of the TFG Management Company, after a quick rebound, many investment houses made statements that the stock market is in the largest discrepancy with the forecasted profit levels and its multiples look unreasonably high. “There is growth in quantitative terms, but the quality of growth is low,” notes Mr. Yusipov.

Prospects for reducing demand from developed economies lead to the withdrawal of investors from the markets of developing countries. According to EPFR, in the reporting week, funds whose investment policy is focused on emerging markets lost almost $ 4.5 billion against $ 3.4 billion a week earlier. The largest outflow of funds in the BRIC countries came from the funds of China ($ 1.5 billion) and Brazil ($ 328 million).

Russian funds stood out from the overall picture, the net inflow of which amounted to $ 16 million per week (a week earlier, $ 5 million was withdrawn from them).

Analysts attribute the interest shown to the recovery in oil prices. According to Reuters, quotes for the nearest Brent oil futures have been holding at $ 30 per barrel for a week already. The cost of Russian Urals oil is around $ 25 per barrel. In addition, investors expect dividend payments for the year for Russian issuers. “The Russian market pretty well experienced the April fall in oil prices, not least due to the expected payment of high dividends for 2019 and the activity of local investors. Forecasts on the profits of the largest issuers, although they suggest a significant decrease, remain positive, which allows counting on dividends for 2020, unlike many foreign companies, ”says Valery Vaysberg.

Further development of the market situation will be determined by the generosity of leading financial regulators. In particular, market participants do not exclude that the US Federal Reserve, following the example of the ECB, may for the first time in history lower its key rate below zero by December this year. This is evidenced by futures on the federal funds rate. “The money wall from global regulators is able to give confidence to investors. Russian stocks remain attractive – oil prices have moved away from the lows, and the securities themselves look cheap as a result of the weakening ruble, ”said Ravil Yusipov. However, according to him, so far “the current inflow into Russian funds looks more like a niche than a long-term trend.”

Vitaliy Gaidaev

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Oil attracts dollars – Kommersant newspaper No. 78 (6799) from 04/29/2020

International investors are actively increasing their investments in oil. According to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR), over the past week $ 4 billion was received in the respective funds, and over $ 11 billion over the past five weeks. However, these volumes are not enough to compensate for the falling demand for oil due to quarantine measures adopted worldwide .

EPFR data indicate a high demand from international investors for oil investments. According to Kommersant’s estimates, based on Bank of America data (taking into account EPFR data), for the week ending April 22, international investors invested nearly $ 4 billion in oil exchange funds. This is one and a half times higher than the previous week. Since the beginning of the year, over $ 16 billion has been received in profile funds, of which more than $ 11 billion has been received over the past five weeks.

However, the current inflow of investments is not enough to reverse the negative trend in the oil market.

According to Reuters, over the past five weeks the cost of North Sea oil Brent decreased by half, to $ 20 per barrel. Since the beginning of the year, prices have fallen three times. Pressure on oil quotes is exerted by real demand, which has fallen due to quarantine measures taken around the world. According to the forecasts of the International Energy Agency, in April demand will fall by 29 million barrels. Considering that the main consumer countries are in no hurry to remove all restrictions in the near future, the imbalance may persist in May. The most acute situation with an oversupply is felt in the USA, where problems are exacerbated by the lack of free storage facilities. Under such conditions, the price of WTI oil for the first time in history fell into the negative area (see Kommersant on April 20). According to Norbert Rücker, chief macroeconomist and promising research director at Julius Baer, ​​the storage facilities are not yet full, but it is obvious that the remaining volumes have already been fully booked.

Longer contracts also came under pressure.

According to Reuters, the cost of the June contract Wti on Tuesday it was below $ 13 per barrel, two times less than last Monday. According to the head of the BCS Broker stock market experts department Vasily Karpunin, risks remain that the price of the nearest WTI contract will become negative, although “many participants are ready to reduce their positions in advance.” It was the active withdrawal of investment funds from the May contract at the beginning of last week that caused a drop in value along the entire curve of WTI contracts. According to the head of the analytical department of Otkritie Bank Anna Morina, now funds are shifting the balance of the futures portfolio from July to September. “According to the standard investment strategy of the United States Oil Fund (USO, one of the largest players in this market .— “B”) had 20% in the June contract, 50% in July and 20% and 10% in the following months, respectively. Considering the oil drawdown and the expected recovery in the third quarter, as well as the exchange’s requirements to limit open positions for each participant, USO has changed the investment scheme, and now it looks like 20–40–20–20%, ”Ms Morina explained. At the same time, market participants doubt the possibility of falling prices on the European oil market below zero, since there are no problems with the shipment of raw materials. According to Anna Morina, Brent futures is a non-deliverable contract, settlements are made in cash.

In this situation, Russian oil feels better Urals. If in normal times, domestic oil is traded at a discount to North Sea, then at present it is at a premium. According to Reuters, in the spot market, the price of Russian oil is $ 13.7-15.5 per barrel, while Brent is trading at $ 11.5 per barrel. Urals is heavy oil, and there is currently an oversupply of light and ultralight oil on the market due to the high supply of Saudi Arabia. “In a situation of scarcity, Urals is being sold at a premium. Since May, Russia has been reducing oil exports through the ports of the Baltic and Novorossiysk by 40%, according to the decision of OPEC +. Thus, supply and demand for Urals in these ports are shifting towards deficit, hence the premium to the price of Brent, ”says Anna Morina.

Vitaliy Gaidaev

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How professionals position themselves on the stock exchange

Frankfurt Stock Exchange

Many investors are puzzled as to where the markets will go.


(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt The uncertainty is great. The oil price and many stock prices are in the basement. The mood among many managers is bad. The corona crisis keeps the financial markets in suspense every day. Many investors are now thinking more than ever about where to invest their money in these unstable times.

Because the violent ups and downs on the markets shows that there is still no peace on the stock exchanges. This leaves many investors in doubt about their previous investments. Keep or prefer to sell? This is an important question for many investors, especially with equities.

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SME bonds are risky for private investors

The MS “Germany”

The bankruptcy of the former ZDF “dream ship” had caused a lot of fuss.


(Photo: dpa)

Berlin Unlike bonds from the USA and Germany, SME bonds have not only been considered a risky investment since the corona crisis. The extensive standstill of the economy further exacerbates the financing situation of medium-sized companies. “The bottom line is that small investors have to be prepared for defaults,” says Hans-Werner Grunow, managing director of management consultancy Capmarcon, which specializes in corporate finance.

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