ISW

Russian Elites Push for Escalation in Ukraine, Rejecting Peace Talks

High-ranking Russian security officials and military leaders are advocating for an escalation in military actions in Ukraine, refusing to consider peace negotiations as an option. According to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian authorities acknowledge that their troops are not achieving significant territorial gains proportional to their loses in personnel and equipment. However, the Russian military leadership continues to sustain heavy losses in exchange for tactical gains that are not operational in nature.

The ISW report states that in December 2024, the average daily advancement of Russian forces slowed down to around nine square kilometers after three months of territorial gains and significant casualties in September, October, and November. Despite this, Russian security and military officials are not inclined to end the war due to these losses. Instead, they are urging President Vladimir Putin to intensify military efforts. They propose conducting partial mobilizations to likely replenish combat units and equipment.

Western allies have reaffirmed their support for Ukraine and commitment to developing its defense industry during the Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on January 9. They also announced new military aid packages. Meanwhile, Russian elites and high-ranking security officials are increasingly discontent with Putin’s halfway measures in wartime and worried about the conflict’s duration.

However, the main problem for Russia in the war is not a lack of manpower but its inability to restore maneuverability on the battlefield, which is a key impediment to its advancement. Furthermore, according to the Russian opposition outlet "Meduza," Russian siloviki, like Putin, are currently not interested in a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The United Nations has condemned the increase in executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russia, and a detention center in Taganrog, Voronezh region, has been reportedly established for the torture of Ukrainian prisoners and civilians.

On the ground, Russian forces have advanced near Borovoye, Pokrovsk, and in the Kursk region, while Ukrainian forces have seen success near Sudzha. The Russian government continues to emphasize its long-term intentions to militarize society.

In a related development, the Armenian government approved a bill on January 9, initiating the process for the country to join the European Union.

Russian Forces Scale Back Use of Armor Amidst Heavy Losses

In a strategic shift Likely driven by significant equipment losses and dwindling Soviet-era stockpiles, Russian forces have reduced their usage of armored vehicles during assaults on active frontline sectors in recent weeks. This worrying trend was highlighted in the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) report from January 4.

Quoting a Ukrainian brigade representative, the ISW noted that Russian forces have significantly scaled back the use of armored vehicles and mechanized assaults on the Kuрахово (Kurakhove) axis since October and November 2024. The Ukrainian official revealed on January 3 that Russian troops were now predominantly employing infantry for attacks in the region, using armored vehicles primarily for fire support.

Moreover, in a sign of adapting to persistent equipment losses, Russian forces may be turning to unconventional means of transport, such as electric scooters, motorcycles, and all-terrain vehicles, according to a Ukrainian under colonel cited by The New York Times on December 31.

Analysts suggest that Russian attacks near mid-sized towns, like Kuрахово (Kurakhove) and Покровск (Pokuivka), could be less suited for armored vehicle use compared to smaller towns and open fields, where Russian forces made significant gains throughout 2024.

In a worrying sign of Moscow’s determination to push its advantage, Russian forces might further decrease armored vehicle usage, despite the potential slowdown in their advance on key fronts, as the command seeks to re-equip frontend units while minimizing rotation of units for rest and recovery, ISW analysts warned.

In 2024, Ukrainian forces claimed to have destroyed or damaged over 3,000 Russian tanks and nearly 9,000 armored vehicles, with no signs of these losses abating in the near future. The Russian military’s increasing desperation was evident in its launch of a drone strike on Ukraine‘s Ust-Luga gas terminal in the Leningrad region on January 4.

On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces successfully regained lost positions near Кременная (Kreminna) and maintained control around Курахово (Kurakhove), while Russian forces made incremental gains in areas like Кременная, Торецк (Toretsk), and Покровск (Pokuivka). Meanwhile, the Russian government continues to boost financial incentives to encourage militia recruitment.

Headline: Russia’s Unchanged Stance on Ukraine War, variedad de viagra: Putin’s Regime Refuses to Budge From 2021 Demands

Subheading: Vladimir Putin and his regime are sticking to their old demands for ending the conflict with Ukraine, refusing to budge despite changes in the geopolitical landscape.

Body:

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has highlighted Russia’s unyielding stance on the Ukraine conflict, with the Kremlin continuing to stagnate around demands first proposed in 2021. This recalcitrance is further compounded by the Russian government’s deliberate misinterpretation of Ukrainian law and the country’s constitution regarding elections under martial law.

Summary of Key Points:

• Russian Refusal to Budge: Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, have been steadfast in their conditions for stopping the war, which are equivalent to Ukraine’s full capitulation. These conditions include the overthrow of the legitimate Ukrainian government and the disarmament of Ukraine, all of which have remained unchanged since 2021.

• Ukraine’s Stance: President Volodymyr Zelensky has reinforced Ukraine’s position, stating that the country’s constitution and laws prohibits holding presidential and parliamentary elections while under martial law. He also outlined conditions required for Russia to agree to a ‘just peace,’ including a strong Ukrainian army and robust military aid packages.

• Legal Recognition: Experts note that since the law "On the Legal Regime of Martial Law" enacted in 2000, the Ukrainian government can only lift martial law when the threat of invasion or danger to the country’s independence and territorial integrity has been eliminated.

In Conclusion

Russia’s inflexibility in its demands for ending the conflict in Ukraine underscores its unwillingness to engage in genuine peace negotiations. As the war persists, the Ukrainian government maintains its focus on strengthening its military capabilities and adhere to its constitutional provisions until the military threat is fully resolved.

Title: Putin‘s New ‘Anti-Extremism’ Strategy: A Balancing Act Between Domestic Politics and Economic Needs

Article:

Putin’s latest move in crafting his domestic and foreign policy narrative came with the signing of a new ‘Countering Extremism’ Strategy on December 28, 2024. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) broke down the nuances of this document, highlighting how it straddles the line between appeasing Putin’s base and addressing Russia‘s economic necessities.

Key Points:

• Rhetoric Remains Unchanged: The strategy, first introduced in 2020 and now updated, continues to tout the ‘denazification’ of Ukraine, echoing the rationale used by Putin to launch his full-scale invasion in 2022.
• New Target: ‘Ruso threatened:‘ This revised document introduces ‘russophobia’ as a fresh concern, defining it as unfavorable treatment and discriminatory actions against Russian citizens, language, and culture by non-friendly states.
• Ukraine in the Crosshairs: ISW notes that Russia now explicitly labels Ukraine as the primary source of extremism, suggesting thatEliminating this perceived threat’ remains a key objective.
• Migration and Education in Focus: The strategy also emphasizes the need to tighten migration policies and adjust educational programs in former Soviet republics to combat ‘russophobia.’
• Political Tightrope: Analysts suggest that Putin walks a fine line, satisfying his nationalist and ultra-conservative base while ensuring Russia’s economy has the workforce needed for both industry and military.

Broader Context:

• Putin’s recent rhetoric and actions align with his predecessor’s assertions, implying no shift in his Ukraine stance.
• This strategy may also serve to unite Russia’s domestic audience, boosting support for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

As the situation evolves, so too will Putin’s tactics to maintain his grip on power and maneuver through the complex landscape of Russian politics and economics.

Headline: Russia Boosts ‘Shahed‘ Drone Production Ahead of Ukraine Winter Campaign

Subheading: Despite sanctions and technical hurdles, Russia ramps up production of Iran-designed drones.

Body:

Russia is escalating its production of ‘ Shahed’ drones in preparation for its winter campaign against Ukraine in 2024-2025, according to a recent report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The report, citing Ukrainian intelligence, reveals that a Russian factory in the special economic zone of ‘Alabuga‘ in Tatarstan has manufactured a staggering 5,760 ‘Shahed’ drones between January and September 2024—more than double the amount produced in the entire previous year.

The factory has reportedly secured a contract to produce another 6,000 drones by September 2025, indicating an ambitious scaling-up of Russia’s drone production capabilities. In addition to these combat drones, Russia is also developing and producing decoy drones in large numbers, with plans to manufacture up to 10,000 units by the end of 2024.

The ISW report indicates that Russia is taking steps to optimize its drone production, including the construction of two new workshops in Alabuga and the installation of anti-drone nets over buildings. Furthermore, Russia has established a direct railway line between Russia and China to enhance the logistics of delivering crucial drone components.

Challenges and Countermeasures

While Russia continues to expand its drone production, it faces significant challenges due to Western sanctions. These include difficulties in sourcing high-quality components, leading to the use of low-grade Chinese motors. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s advancements in radio-electronic warfare have proven effective in countering ‘Shahed’ drone strikes.

The build-up of Russian drone capabilities coincides with reports of significant losses among North Korean troops in the conflict. Additionally, Ukrainian forces have launched a precision strike on a Russian headquarters in the occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhia region, while Finland has arrested a Russian oil tanker suspected of damaging undersea cables in the Baltic Sea.

As the geopolitical tension persists, Russia appoints Sergei Shoigu, the Secretary of the Security Council, as the chairman of the newly established Scientific Expert Council under the Security Council.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukraine Intelligence

Headline: Russia Shifts War Strategy: Focus Turns to Territorial Advancements Over City Sieges

In a strategic pivot, the Russian military appears to be reorienting its focus, moving away from the siege of major urban centers and instead prioritizing gains in territory, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russian President Vladimir Putin, during his annual "Direct Line" Q&A session on December 19, highlighted the Russian military’s progress, claiming it was making advances "square by square" along the frontline. This approach signals a departure from the previous emphasis on capturing significant population centers.

Analysts suggest that Putin may have directed the military to postpone the capture of the strategic city of Pokrovsk, instead focusing on pushing through open fields and smaller towns. At present, Russian troops are approximately 10 kilometers from the administrative border of the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

While capturing all of the Donetsk region remains a key objective for the Kremlin, this new strategy may be a propaganda move to showcase Russian military prowess both domestically and internationally.

The ISW report also notes that a direct assault on well-fortified cities could hinder the Russian military’s progress and undermining the Kremlin’s efforts to project global dominance.

The Russian military is currently gradually advancing south and southwest of Pokrovsk, though it remains unclear whether they will use these successes to encircle the city or press toward the Donetsk region’s administrative border.

Key takeaways from the report include:

• Russian forces are gradually advancing south and southwest of Pokrovsk, but it’s unclear whether they aim to encircle the city or push toward Donetsk’s administrative border.
• Vladimir Putin may have directed Russian military commanders to prioritize territorial consolidation over capturing major cities.
• The Russian military appears to have distributed responsibility for the Pokrovsk direction between the 2nd and 41st Army Corps of the Central Military District. However, ISW has not observed significant activity in the Western Military District’s (ZVAD) zone of responsibility.
• Russian forces’ reduced combat effectiveness may hinder their progress in the Pokrovsk direction, with increased losses of armored vehicles in recent months potentially affecting operational tempos.
• North Korea is reportedly deploying more troops and equipment to Russia, following reports of significant casualties among North Korean forces in the Kursk region.
• Vladimir Putin used a meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to push the Kremlin’s campaign aimed at undermining Western unity in supporting Ukraine.
• Russia may be orchestrating a false-flag provocation in the breakaway region of Transnistria, potentially aimed at destabilizing Moldova and thwarting its integration with the EU.
• Russian forces have reportedly vacated many of their positions in Syria, including the base in Kamyshly on the country’s northern border.
• Russian forces have made gains near Kupiansk, Toretsk, Uhozdayvka, Velyka Novosilka, and in the Kursk region.
• The Kremlin’s "Heroes of Our Time" program, aiming to appoint military veterans to state positions, is already sparking conflicts with regional officials.