Keaton Wagler

The college basketball landscape is always shifting, but a few key trends are emerging as we move deeper into the season. While finals week provides a brief pause, it’s a perfect time to analyze what’s real and what’s just early-season noise. Here’s a breakdown of the most compelling developments and what they might mean for the rest of the year.

The Rise of the Two-Level Scorer

For years, the “50-40-90” club (shooting 50% from the field, 40% from three, and 90% from the free-throw line) has been the gold standard for offensive efficiency. But a new benchmark is gaining prominence: excelling in both catch-and-shoot and pull-up three-pointers.

Ohio State’s Bruce Thornton is leading the charge. Currently shooting 59% from the field, 49% from beyond the arc, and 86% from the line, he’s on the cusp of joining the 50-40-90 ranks. More impressively, Thornton is shooting 53% on catch-and-shoot threes and a remarkable 44% on pull-up attempts, according to Synergy Sports. Virginia’s Jacari White is the only other player nationally exceeding 50% on catch-and-shoot and 40% on pull-up threes (with a minimum of 10 attempts each).

This dual threat is incredibly difficult to defend. It forces defenses to respect the shooter regardless of whether they’re spotting up or creating their own shot. Thornton’s recent performance – 34 points against Illinois and a game-winning shot against West Virginia – underscores his impact. He played all but 52 seconds of 90 minutes of basketball last week, a testament to his importance to the Buckeyes. His offensive rating of 154.9 (per KenPom) ranks seventh nationally, and he’s consistently the primary focus of opposing scouting reports.

Pro Tip: Keep an eye on players who are developing this two-level shooting ability. They’re becoming increasingly valuable commodities in today’s college game.

Defensive Identity: Kentucky’s Turning Point

Preseason expectations pegged Kentucky as a team built on defense, but it took time for that potential to materialize. Their recent 72-60 victory over Indiana signaled a shift. The Wildcats held the Hoosiers to just 0.70 points per possession in the second half, forcing 12 turnovers and limiting Indiana to 6-22 shooting from the field.

The key to this defensive improvement? The return of veteran Mo Dioubate from an ankle injury. Dioubate’s impact is significant. With him on the floor against top-50 teams, Kentucky forces a turnover on 22.8% of possessions. Without him, that number plummets to 13.7% (per Hoop-Explorer).

In a half-court offense that’s still finding its rhythm, takeaways are crucial for Kentucky. Dioubate’s energy and defensive instincts are vital as they prepare for a challenging matchup against No. 22 St. John’s at the CBS Sports Classic.

Preseason Projections: Time for a Reassessment

Early-season rankings and projections are often based on limited information. Now, with several weeks of games in the books, it’s time to revisit those initial assessments. Let’s look at how some preseason top-10 teams are performing:

UConn

Preseason Rank: 1 | Current Rank: 17 UConn’s offense is still a work in progress, hampered by injuries to key players. However, the potential is undeniable. Once their full starting five – Solo Ball, Silas Demary Jr., Alex Karaban, Braylon Mullins, and Tarris Reed – gets consistent playing time (they’ve only played 13 minutes together so far), expect a significant jump in offensive efficiency.

Purdue

Preseason Rank: 2 | Current Rank: 1 Purdue is living up to the hype. Braden Smith’s ability to create high-quality shots, combined with their dominance on the offensive boards, makes them a formidable opponent. Their biggest weakness – turnovers – is manageable when they’re shooting the ball so well.

Louisville

Preseason Rank: 3 | Current Rank: 2 Louisville’s offense is incredibly versatile. Even when their three-point shots aren’t falling, they can still generate respectable offense. Mikel Brown Jr.’s emergence as a scoring threat adds another dimension to their attack.

Florida

Preseason Rank: 4 | Current Rank: 30 Florida has been a disappointment so far. While their frontcourt is strong on the glass, Boogie Fland’s inconsistent shooting and Xaivian Lee’s slow start have hampered their offense. However, they still have the potential to contend in the SEC.

Kentucky

Preseason Rank: 5 | Current Rank: 37 Jaland Lowe’s preseason shoulder injury derailed Kentucky’s offensive plans. Without Lowe’s playmaking ability, their transition offense has struggled, and they haven’t been able to consistently create easy scoring opportunities.

Illinois

Preseason Rank: 6 | Current Rank: 3 Illinois boasts a deep and versatile offense. Their quartet of big men – Tomislav Ivisic, Ben Humrichous, David Mirkovic, and Zvonimir Ivisic – are all capable three-point shooters. Freshman guard Keaton Wagler has also been a revelation, providing a high-IQ scoring punch.

BYU

Preseason Rank: 7 | Current Rank: 9 BYU’s offense revolves around feeding their stars – AJ Dybantsa, Rob Wright, and Richie Saunders. Their high floor is due to their consistent ability to get the ball to their best players in advantageous situations.

Texas Tech

Preseason Rank: 8 | Current Rank: 20 Outside of a disappointing loss to Purdue, Texas Tech has been a dangerous offensive team. JT Toppin and Christian Anderson form a dynamic duo, consistently leading the charge.

Duke

Preseason Rank: 9 | Current Rank: 10 Duke’s offense is still developing, but the potential is clear. Cameron Boozer is a versatile offensive hub, and Caleb Foster has shown mental toughness. The key to their success will be the development of their freshmen.

Wisconsin

Preseason Rank: 10 | Current Rank: 42 Wisconsin’s offense is showing signs of positive regression. Their three-point shooting is likely to improve, and John Blackwell and Nick Boyd are emerging as key offensive contributors. However, their leaky defense remains a concern.

Under-the-Radar Players Making an Impact

• Ugonna Onyenso (Virginia): The former Kentucky and Kansas State big man has found a home at Virginia, becoming one of the best backup centers in the country. He’s a shot-blocking machine and a dominant rebounder.
• Dion Brown (Saint Louis): A gritty guard who excels on the boards, Brown is a key contributor for a Saint Louis team that’s on the verge of a breakout season.
• Sam Hoiberg (Nebraska): A former walk-on, Hoiberg has transformed into a valuable playmaker for the undefeated Huskers. His high assist-to-turnover ratio and relentless effort make him a key piece of their success.

Did You Know?

UCLA has played 70 possessions of zone defense in the last three games, after only accumulating 45 possessions of zone defense in the previous four years combined. This suggests a significant strategic shift for the Bruins.

FAQ

• What is the significance of the two-level scorer? Players who can effectively shoot both catch-and-shoot and pull-up threes are incredibly difficult to defend, as they keep defenses constantly guessing.
• How important is Mo Dioubate to Kentucky’s defense? Dioubate’s return from injury has dramatically improved Kentucky’s defensive intensity and turnover creation.
• Are preseason rankings reliable? Preseason rankings are a starting point, but they should be reassessed as the season progresses and more data becomes available.

Stay tuned for further analysis as the college basketball season unfolds. The coming weeks promise to be filled with exciting matchups and surprising developments.

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