With U.S.-brokered Ukraine peace talks on hold due to the war in the Middle East, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attempt to expand his military gains with latest offensives against Ukraine, potentially increasing pressure on Kyiv.
Windfall revenues from surging global oil prices are bolstering Moscow’s war efforts, while U.S. Air defense assets are being strained by Iranian attacks across the Gulf, raising concerns about the availability of resources for Ukraine as it enters the fifth year of the full-scale invasion.
A Possible New Push from Russia
Russia’s military appears to be preparing for a renewed push to claim the remaining portion of the eastern Donetsk region under Ukraine’s control, as well as potential offensives in other sectors. Moscow has been building up reserves, and operations are expected to intensify as the spring weather improves.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has observed increased Russian artillery barrages and drone strikes aimed at weakening Ukrainian defenses before ground attacks. Ukraine has responded with counterattacks in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, seeking to establish bridgeheads toward key industrial hubs.
According to the ISW, Ukraine’s retaliation in the Dnipropetrovsk region could force Russia to choose between defending against counterattacks and focusing on offensive operations elsewhere, potentially disrupting the anticipated Russian offensive. Ukrainian forces have also increased midrange strikes against Russian logistics and manpower.
Russian war bloggers suggest that Moscow would need to significantly bolster its forces to launch a major offensive, presenting a challenge for the Kremlin. After a “partial mobilization” of 300,000 reservists, Russia has shifted to recruiting volunteers and foreign fighters attracted by wages and benefits.
Putin stated that Russia has approximately 700,000 troops fighting in Ukraine, roughly the same number as Ukraine reportedly has.
‘Slow War of Attrition’
The conflict has evolved into a war of attrition, characterized by modest groups of soldiers engaged in grinding battles in eastern Ukraine. The use of drones has limited the concentration of troops for large-scale maneuvers. Russia continues to rely on long-range missiles and drones to target Ukraine’s infrastructure.
Analyst Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute noted that Russia has been able to infiltrate and undermine Ukrainian defenses due to the “growing lethality” of its attacks and Kyiv’s dwindling troop strength. Russia appears capable of maintaining its recruitment rate despite Ukrainian casualties.
Russia is increasingly enlisting students into its newly formed Drone Forces, offering relatively high pay and safe deployment away from the front lines.
U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told the Senate Intelligence Committee that Russia has maintained the upper hand in the war. She stated that Moscow is likely to continue fighting a slow war of attrition until its objectives are achieved, pending a peace agreement.
Entrenched Positions
Several rounds of negotiations have failed to produce a breakthrough, as the parties remain sharply divided. Putin wants Ukraine to withdraw from four illegally annexed regions, renounce NATO membership, reduce its army, and lift restrictions on the Russian language and the Moscow-affiliated Orthodox Church – demands Zelenskyy has rejected.
Zelenskyy has called for a ceasefire, U.S.-backed security guarantees, and rejected claims over Ukrainian territory. Kyiv’s European allies accuse Moscow of prolonging talks to gain more ground and insist on European participation. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected European involvement, stating It’s “not necessary or expedient.” Moscow also stated it would view any European troops monitoring a ceasefire as legitimate targets.
Zelenskyy sent negotiators to the U.S. For talks on Saturday, but Peskov said Russia would not join them, and the timing and location of another round of trilateral negotiations remain undecided. Sam Greene, a professor at King’s College London, suggested Moscow’s strategy is to engage with Washington just enough to hinder Ukraine’s progress and appease European concerns, without making substantial progress toward a resolution.
Trump Takes Aim at Zelenskyy
The U.S. Has granted Moscow a temporary waiver from oil sanctions, allowing sales of Russian crude already at sea, to the dismay of Kyiv and European allies. President Trump has also criticized Zelenskyy as an obstacle to peace, stating he “has to get on the ball, and he has to get a deal done.”
Trump rebuffed Zelenskyy’s offer to help protect U.S. Forces and allies in the Gulf from Iranian drones, saying, “No, we don’t need their help on drone defense.” Zelenskyy has expressed concern that the war in the Middle East could negatively impact Ukraine, leading to postponed peace negotiations and a potential deficit of U.S.-made Patriot missiles.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Russia hoping to achieve with a new offensive?
Russia appears to be readying for a renewed push to claim the part of the eastern Donetsk region that remains under Ukraine’s control, as well as possible offensives in several other sectors.
What role is the conflict in the Middle East playing in the Ukraine war?
The war in the Middle East has put U.S.-brokered Ukraine peace talks on hold and is straining U.S. Air defense assets, raising concerns about the availability of resources for Ukraine.
What is Ukraine doing to counter potential Russian offensives?
Ukraine has launched counterattacks in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions and has stepped up midrange strikes against Russian logistics and manpower.
As the war enters its fifth year, what impact will shifting global alliances have on the future of the conflict?
