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The Hormuz shipping dispute
World

Trump threatens to withdraw US troops from Italy and Spain

by Thomas Alvarez - World Editor May 1, 2026
written by Thomas Alvarez - World Editor
US President Donald Trump has threatened to withdraw military personnel from Italy and Spain, signaling a significant change in transatlantic security. The threats follow escalating friction over the US-Israeli war on Iran and a dispute over whether NATO allies have done enough to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

The security architecture of Southern Europe is currently facing intense scrutiny from the White House. Following a separate indication that the US was looking at reducing troop levels in Germany, the US president has now expanded his rhetoric to include Italy and Spain. This development reflects a broader tension regarding the obligations of European allies in supporting US-led military objectives in the Middle East.

“Probably … look, why shouldn’t I? Italy has not been of any help to us and Spain has been horrible, absolutely horrible.”

The threat arrives amid a broader pattern of tension. In Germany, the prospect of troop reductions followed comments from Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who stated that the US was being humiliated by Iran. This suggests a climate where public critiques of US foreign policy or perceived lack of support are followed by threats to reduce or remove long-standing military footprints.

The Hormuz shipping dispute

At the center of this friction is the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial commercial shipping corridor. The US administration has severely criticized NATO allies for failing to deploy their navies to help reopen the strait. This maritime security gap has become a primary point of contention, as the US president has characterized the lack of European naval participation as a failure of strategic cooperation.

View this post on Instagram about Strait of Hormuz, Guido Crosetto
From Instagram — related to Strait of Hormuz, Guido Crosetto

Italian officials have pushed back against the narrative that they have been unhelpful. Italy’s defense minister, Guido Crosetto, stated he did not understand the motives behind the threat to withdraw troops and rejected claims that Rome had failed to assist the US in maritime security. Crosetto specifically addressed accusations that European-linked ships had crossed the strait of Hormuz, asserting that such events did not occur.

“As is clear to everyone, this never happened,” Crosetto told Ansa. “We have also made ourselves available for a mission to protect shipping. This was greatly appreciated by the American military.” Guido Crosetto, Italian Defense Minister

Despite these assertions, the US administration appears to view the European contribution as insufficient. The disagreement over the Strait of Hormuz involves a dispute over the roles and expectations for NATO allies in maintaining global shipping lanes during the US-Israeli war on Iran.

For more on this story, see Trump Slams Germany Over Iran Conflict and Threatens Troop Reduction.

Divergent paths in Rome and Madrid

While both countries face the threat of withdrawal, the friction in Madrid and Rome stems from different diplomatic choices. Spain has been the most outspoken EU critic of the war on Iran, with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez speaking out against the conflict from its inception. This opposition has led to concrete restrictions; Spain has denied the US permission to use jointly operated military bases on its territory for attacks on Iran.

Trump Eyes Potential Withdrawal of Troops From Italy and Spain

The tension with Spain extends beyond military basing. Last month, the US threatened to impose a full trade embargo on the country. At the end of 2025, approximately 3,800 active-duty US military personnel were stationed in Spain at two joint-use facilities: the Morón airbase and the Rota naval station. Sánchez has maintained that Spain’s position is one of absolute cooperation with allies, provided it remains within the framework of international law.

Italy, by contrast, attempted a balancing act that lasted until late March. That strategy collapsed when Rome refused to allow US planes carrying weapons for the war on Iran to use an airbase in Sicily. This refusal occurred alongside the current threats of troop withdrawals from the region.

The Scale of US Presence
According to the US Defense Manpower Data Center, the US military had 68,000 active-duty personnel permanently assigned to overseas bases in Europe at the end of last year. While Germany holds the largest share with about 36,400 personnel, Italy maintains a significant footprint with roughly 13,000 personnel stationed across seven naval bases.

Current reporting indicates a lack of immediate official response from the Spanish government following the latest threats. Similarly, while the Italian defense minister has spoken out, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has not offered an immediate response to the US president’s comments.

This follows our earlier report, Trump’s threat to pull troops out of Germany crashes into reality – POLITICO.

Strategic stakes and logistical realities

The possibility of a significant drawdown remains an open question, as the logistical utility of these bases often outweighs diplomatic grievances. Since the end of the cold war, US bases in Europe have functioned as essential forward-staging sites and logistical hubs. These facilities have been critical for launching and supporting operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the current conflict in Iran.

A withdrawal from Italy and Spain would affect the US military’s operational capabilities, as it would remove key forward-staging sites used to support missions in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. The Rota naval station and the seven Italian naval bases provide the infrastructure necessary for sustained maritime operations that cannot be easily replicated elsewhere.

Watch for whether these threats transition into formal orders for troop movements or remain as tools of diplomatic coercion. The critical indicator will be whether Italy and Spain adjust their policies regarding the use of their airbases and naval facilities for the war on Iran, or if the US administration is willing to sacrifice strategic logistics to punish diplomatic dissent.

May 1, 2026 0 comments
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World

Nato wargame finds Russia could overrun Baltics in days

by Chief Editor February 8, 2026
written by Chief Editor

Lithuania as the Modern Flashpoint: Wargames Reveal NATO Vulnerabilities

A recent military wargame has delivered a stark warning: Russia could achieve significant gains within days of an incursion into a NATO member state. The simulation, conducted by former German and NATO officials, focused on a hypothetical attack on Lithuania, exposing potential weaknesses in the alliance’s response capabilities.

The Marijampole Scenario: A Critical Chokepoint

The wargame envisioned Russia fabricating a “humanitarian crisis” in Kaliningrad as a pretext to seize Marijampole, Lithuania. This city is strategically vital, hosting a key road intersection on the Via Baltica highway, used by both the EU and Ukraine, and a crucial link connecting Russia and Belarus. The exercise, set in October 2026, demonstrated how a relatively small force of 15,000 troops could rapidly gain control of the region.

Hesitation and the Absence of US Leadership

A key finding of the simulation was the potential for hesitancy among NATO members, particularly the United States and Germany. The US declined to invoke Article 5 – the principle of collective defense – while Germany was leisurely to react. A deployed brigade in Lithuania did not intervene after reported Russian drone activity near a military base. This lack of decisive action allowed Russia to achieve its objectives with minimal resistance.

The Russian Perspective: Exploiting Perceived Weaknesses

Franz-Stefan Gady, who played the role of the Russian chief of general staff in the wargame, highlighted the importance of perceived weaknesses. “Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but on what the enemy believes about our will,” he stated. “In the wargame, my “Russian colleagues” and I knew: Germany will hesitate. And this was enough to win.”

Escalating Tensions and Probing NATO Defenses

This wargame isn’t occurring in a vacuum. Recent events suggest a pattern of Russian activity aimed at testing NATO’s resolve. In September 2025, Russian drones violated Polish airspace, prompting a response that triggered a NATO Article 4 consultation. These incursions, along with increased Russian military inventories along NATO borders, signal a growing sense of threat.

Lithuania’s Preparations and the Broader European Context

For Lithuania, bordering Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus, the war in Ukraine has been a wake-up call. The country has been actively preparing for a potential conflict, recognizing its frontline position. The Netherlands Defence Minister has assessed that Russia could mobilize large troop numbers within a year, further emphasizing the urgency of the situation.

What Does This Mean for NATO?

The wargame’s findings raise serious questions about NATO’s preparedness and decision-making processes. The simulation suggests that a swift, decisive response is crucial to deterring Russian aggression. Hesitation or a lack of unity could have catastrophic consequences.

Frequently Asked Questions

  • What is Article 5 of the NATO treaty? Article 5 states that an attack against one member is considered an attack against all.
  • What is Kaliningrad? Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave located between Lithuania and Poland.
  • What is the Via Baltica? The Via Baltica is a major highway connecting Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
  • Who conducted the wargame? The wargame was conducted by the German Wargaming Center of the Helmut-Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces, along with newspaper Die Welt.

Pro Tip: Staying informed about geopolitical risks and defense strategies is crucial for understanding the evolving security landscape. Regularly consult reputable news sources and analysis from defense experts.

Did you understand? Lithuania declared a state of emergency in February 2022 in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, demonstrating its proactive approach to regional security.

What are your thoughts on NATO’s preparedness? Share your opinions in the comments below. Explore our other articles on international security and geopolitical analysis for more in-depth insights. Subscribe to our newsletter to stay updated on the latest developments.

February 8, 2026 0 comments
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