The Boston Celtics’ decision to trade Jaylen Brown to the Philadelphia 76ers underscores a shift in NBA roster construction, where teams increasingly struggle to balance championship aspirations with the restrictive financial penalties of the league’s second-apron era. According to Celtics president Brad Stevens, the team’s total salary allocation for its top two players is projected to climb from 47% during their 2024 championship run to roughly 70% in 2027, a cost threshold that league history suggests is unsustainable for long-term contention.
Why the 70% Salary Cap Threshold Matters
Modern NBA front offices are grappling with the reality that paying two players 70% of the salary cap creates a “checkbook” ceiling that limits depth. According to analysis from Brad Botkin, the 2021-22 Golden State Warriors were the only team in the last 15 years to exceed 61% of the cap for their top two earners, paying their four most expensive players nearly 124% of the cap. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst famously labeled that 2022 title a “checkbook win,” but the subsequent implementation of harsher luxury tax formulas and “apron” penalties has made such spending nearly impossible to replicate.
Outside of the 2022 Warriors, the last 15 NBA champions spent an average of just 53.6% of their salary cap on their two highest-paid players.
How Underpaying Stars Creates Championship Windows
The most effective strategy for building a title contender remains securing elite production at a discount. According to recent league data, the New York Knicks were able to allocate 60% of their cap to Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby because Jalen Brunson’s early extension kept his salary below the maximum market rate. Similarly, the 2024 Celtics benefited from a cap structure where neither Tatum nor Brown accounted for the massive salary spikes seen in their later supermax deals. This “surplus value”—paying a player less than their market worth—is the primary mechanism teams use to afford high-level supporting pieces like Jrue Holiday or Kristaps Porziņģis.
Which Stars Are Future “CBA Casualties”?
As salary cap pressures mount, teams are increasingly forced to trade star players to preserve financial flexibility. Several players are currently viewed as potential trade candidates due to their massive contract commitments:
- De’Aaron Fox: With a deal set to pay him $61.3 million in the 2029-30 season, his 30% max contract is viewed by some as potential negative value as he ages. According to league observers, the San Antonio Spurs may eventually need to move him to accommodate the rising costs of Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper.
- Donovan Mitchell: Following his four-year, $273 million extension, Cleveland faces a scenario where Mitchell and Evan Mobley will combine for nearly 70% of the cap. Without the surplus value provided by cheap rookie-scale contracts, the Cavaliers face a difficult path to maintaining a deep roster.
Pro Tip: The “Calculated Overpay” Strategy
Teams with significant cap space, such as the San Antonio Spurs or Atlanta Hawks, may view these “cap casualty” trades as a market inefficiency. By absorbing a star on a large contract, these teams can bypass the asset-heavy cost of signing free agents, provided they have enough low-cost, high-impact players on rookie-scale deals to balance their books.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Celtics trade Jaylen Brown?
According to Brad Stevens, the trade was a response to the rising cost of supermax contracts. The team determined that paying 70% of the cap to two players would prevent them from building the necessary depth to remain competitive in the second-apron era.
Are the Oklahoma City Thunder at risk of a cap crisis?
What is a “second-apron” team?
A second-apron team is one that exceeds the NBA’s second salary cap threshold. These teams face severe restrictions, including the inability to aggregate salaries in trades or use mid-level exceptions, making it difficult to improve a roster once the limit is crossed.
What do you think is the biggest risk for NBA teams in the current salary cap environment? Share your thoughts in the comments below or subscribe to our newsletter for more deep-dive analysis on the business of basketball.
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