Something more predictable was the dynamics that the blue dollar acquired, which also had a significant rise: the caves of the City went from selling it at an average of $ 131 to one of $ 144 at the close of yesterday.
“Some measures threw uncertainty more than certainties and uncertainty is the worst signal for the financial market,” said Darío Epstein., Director of Research For Traders. For Epstein, having restricted sales of $ 200 was predictable, “but forcing companies to restructure 60% of the debt that matures between now and December destroys the achievement of having reached such a successful swap.”
In line with this comment, the director of the consulting firm LCG, Guido Lorenzo, He noted: “The effectiveness of the regulation could be seen in the results: the Central Bank lost reserves on almost all wheels. And we are with a higher gap. The measures were not effective and had a very high political cost, since they left the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, very badly off ”.
In economics, decision makers must often choose to adjust by price or quantity and, clearly, the BCRA’s decision was to ensure that the official value does not skyrocket and that the variable to be touched is the volume of foreign currency accessed by the population and the companies. In that sense, Lorenzo considered: “The more you want to repress the exchange rate, the worse the reflection will be in the parallel.”
The director of the EcoGo study, Federico Furiase, also finds it difficult for the Government to maintain the current daily microdepreciations, even with the bolt measures: “This dynamic is very difficult to sustain if there is not a confidence shock from politics and a sign of fiscal consolidation, within the framework of a new agreement with the IMF, plus some sign that improves incentives for exports.”
For Leonardo Chialva, partner of Delphos Investment, The Government has been taking a series of decisions that are seen by the market as anti-entrepreneurial, including the teleworking law, the tax on large fortunes, the decree that regulates telecommunications companies and the aforementioned BCRA initiatives. “The measures were poorly taken and threw away much of what was gained from the debt swap,” he summarized.
Looking ahead to the next few months, Chialva said: “If people react badly, they will have to raise the rates for deposits in pesos and another complex dynamic will be entered. We will have to wait for the transition until the sojadollars arrive in March and it is as smooth as possible. I imagine the Government trying to get the field to sell the dollars that are in the silo bags ”.
The one who cast a slightly more optimistic look was Victoria Giarrizzo, CERX director: “People are gradually getting used to the new quota and the pessimism generated by the measures in the coming weeks will continue to decline. Unlike other times, the versions of the corralito or that everything explodes were more limited ”.
However, Giarrizzo also clarified: “Those who remain very concerned are companies with debts in dollars and the malaise will continue as long as this measure continues.”
Other criticisms made by some of the analysts have to do with the fact that they perceive an anti-export bias in the regulations: “One of the announcements has to do with the fact that the pre-financing of exports will have to be approved by the BCRA, something that limits even more sales abroad, which is the country’s way of getting dollars ”, concluded Epstein.
In addition, the director of Resarch For Traders referred to the fears in part of the population regarding what has to do with savings: “If you add the reserve requirements, plus the liquid dollar position of the banks, you have coverage of 90% dollar deposits. However, when you take wrong measures in the exchange rate framework and generate uncertainty, people are rationally scared ”.