rain forecast

Australia’s driest regions are experiencing one of their wettest months in decades, with weather models predicting the rainfall will extend to southern Australia this weekend.

A Month for the History Books

The driest parts of Australia, across northern South Australia and adjacent areas of Queensland, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia, typically receive less than 200mm of rain annually, dropping to around 150mm near Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre. This represents only about five per cent of the region’s annual evaporation rate.

So far this February, much of central Australia has received between 100–200mm of rain. Mount Denison, 250 kilometres north-west of Alice Springs, has recorded 349mm, just 12mm shy of its wettest month since February 1982.

Rain Saves Southern Summer

Even as earlier this month’s rainfall largely bypassed drought-affected areas of southern Australia, a plume of moisture is expected to bring a rainband across South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales on Sunday.

The heaviest falls, potentially reaching 20mm, are forecast for a band stretching from inland South Australia to the Murray River, with lighter, more scattered rainfall closer to the southern coastline. Thunderstorms are also expected, raising the possibility of localised heavy falls and flash flooding.

A second band of precipitation is predicted to move south from the outback deluge on Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms that could linger for several days. This could deliver moderate rainfall to much of southern inland South Australia, Victoria, and far west New South Wales, with weekly totals potentially reaching 50mm or more in some areas.

Flood Watch for Dozens of Inland Rivers

The extensive rainfall is expected to cause widespread flooding across Australia’s interior, as the flat terrain struggles to drain the excess water. Numerous flood watches are currently in effect for dozens of inland catchments, covering an area larger than Greenland.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that rising river and creek levels, along with overland inundation, are likely in the coming days, potentially isolating communities as roads become submerged.

While the long-range forecast for autumn and winter suggests below-average rainfall, early March’s outlook hints at the possibility of continued wet conditions as tropical air remains positioned over the interior.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is causing the rainfall?

The rainfall is due to humid tropical air penetrating deep into the arid interior, driven by a series of low-pressure systems over northern Australia.

Where is the heaviest rainfall expected?

The heaviest falls, up to about 20mm, are expected in a broken band stretching from inland South Australia to the Murray River.

Are there any flood concerns?

Yes, multiple renewed flood watches are in force for dozens of inland catchments, with river and creek levels expected to rise and potentially isolate communities.

As communities brace for this unusual influx of rain, will the current conditions provide lasting relief to drought-stricken areas, or will the return to drier conditions be swift?