India’s monsoon rainfall is expected to remain “below normal” across most regions in July, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). While a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal may reduce the current 40% rainfall deficit in the coming weeks, temperatures are predicted to be warmer than usual.
Why is the monsoon rainfall below normal?
The country is currently facing a 40% rainfall deficit. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra noted that June rainfall across India was 99.5 mm, which marks the fifth-lowest June rainfall recorded since 1901.
Mohapatra attributed this deficit to the development of El Niño, which has had a negative impact on rainfall activity in the Indian region. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently in a neutral phase, has not been able to compensate for the negative effects of El Niño.
“There was a negative impact on rainfall activity over the Indian region due to the development of El Niño, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is in neutral phase, could not help to compensate the negative impact of El Niño,” Mohapatra said.
The lowest ever rainfall for the month of June was recorded in 2009, when only 87.6 mm fell during an El Niño year that resulted in a major drought.
How will July weather affect the country?
The monsoon is expected to reach Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, and parts of Rajasthan within the next 2-3 days. Conditions are also favorable for the southwest monsoon to advance into Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Ladakh, parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh.
A low-pressure system forming over the Bay of Bengal is likely to aid rainfall during the first 10 days of July. This system could bring showers to most parts of central India, including Odisha, West Bengal, Gujarat, and Maharashtra.
Despite the potential for rain, July is likely to be warmer than usual. The met department has predicted “above normal” temperatures for several locations across the country.
What are the implications for farming?
The anticipated wet spell over the next 7-10 days may support sowing operations. This is particularly significant for the “monsoon core zone,” a rain-fed area in central India where farming relies heavily on seasonal rainfall.
July is typically the wettest month of the monsoon season. It serves as the most crucial period for the sowing of kharif crops.
The timing of the expected wet spell is critical for the “monsoon core zone.” Because July is the primary window for kharif crop sowing, any delay in rainfall could impact agricultural productivity in these rain-fed regions.
Will the rainfall deficit improve?
While the upcoming rains may reduce the current deficit, the IMD expects overall rainfall for July to remain below normal in most parts of the country. Some global models suggest the IOD might turn positive by late August or early September.
If the IOD turns positive, the second half of the monsoon season could see slightly better rainfall. However, the IMD stated this improvement may not be enough to offset the existing June-July deficit.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current rainfall deficit in India?
The country is currently experiencing a 40% rainfall deficit.
Which regions will see the monsoon advance in the next few days?
The monsoon is expected to cover Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, and parts of Rajasthan within the next 2-3 days.
Will July be hotter than usual?
Yes, the met department has predicted “above normal” temperatures at several places, making July likely to be warmer than usual.
How will the current weather patterns affect upcoming crop cycles?