“There was no specific catalyst to explain the rebound. I think the dynamics will be up and down, with smaller volumes. It happens that one day three funds buy everything and you go up, while another day the opposite happens. Argentina came with many consecutive falls, so everything was very cheap on Wall Street ”, Rafael Di Giorno, director of Proficio Investment, remarked to Ámbito.
For his part, Joaquín Candia, an analyst at Rava, recalled that “we must not lose sight of the fact that the underlying situation did not change and that having fallen so much in a short time, prices began to become more attractive for investors more prone to risk, as this style can rebound over time. “
The rises in ADRs were so strong this Thursday that not even the sudden decline in the CCL dollar prevented the S&P Merval de Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos (BYMA) stock index will end higher. The leading panel managed to close with an increase of 2.2%, to 41,875 units.
In this way, the most important increases of the day were recorded by the Galicia shares (+ 7.2%); Supervielle (+ 6.9%); and Transportadora de Gas del Norte (+ 6.5%).
In the local market, the lack of volume is the main characteristic with significant fluctuations in most of the contributors, they stand out at the tables, beyond the fact that this Thursday a rebound was observed: $ 1,336 million were traded, 44% more than on Wednesday . That amount was half of what was negotiated in CEDEAR, which reached $ 2,635 million.
After the restructuring of some 100,000 million dollars with creditors, the market focuses on the negotiation of another millionaire debt (about 44,000 million dollars) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In that sense, the IMF spokesman, Gerry Rice, said Thursday that the agency maintains a “very fluid and constructive dialogue” with the Argentine authorities and is working on a plan for a visit by its staff in early October.
Beyond the rise of this Thursday, the Argentine financial market shows concern after economic indicators that raise doubts for the future, despite a recent successful swap of sovereign debt for some US $ 100 billion whose effect quickly faded.
INDEC reported this week a historic drop in GDP of 19.1% year-on-year in the second quarter and an increase in the unemployment rate to 13.1%, as a result of the effects of the pandemic and quarantine, which adds up high inflation and recent obstacles imposed by the Central Bank (BCRA) on the exchange market in an attempt to preserve its reserves.
On the external front, on the other hand, The main American indices posted slight increases after a volatile session, in which the shares of the technology sector managed to recover from the falls of recent days. In this way the Nasdaq (+ 0.4%) led the rises, in a day in which it was known that the requests for unemployment insurance amounted to 870 thousand requests, slightly above market expectations.
Bonds and country risk
In the fixed income segment, and like stocks, the new exchange bonds closed unevenly, with increases in the versions in pesos and a majority of decreases among those nominated in dollars.
A better performance was observed for the bonds issued under local law. In any case, at the end of the round “there was no clear preference for specific legislation since the outlook is quite uncertain and neither was the mission announced by the IMF for October in the country a sufficiently important driver for investors to fully resume confidence in local assets, “Candia said.
Beyond this rebound, Argentine securities maintain high rates due to the risk associated with the Argentine macroeconomic situation.
After six consecutive raises, the Argentina’s country risk, of the JP Morgan bank, fell 2.9% to 1,350 basis points. On Wednesday it had exceeded 1,400 points intraday.