Analysts suggest the African National Congress (ANC) is facing a crisis of governance and corruption so profound that no single leader – including prominent figures like billionaire Patrice Motsepe or former President Thabo Mbeki – can reverse its current trajectory.
‘Bottom-up cleansing’
Experts believe a “major shake-up and bottom-up cleansing” is required to address the issues plaguing the party. Independent researcher Dominic Maphaka stated, “The ANC can only be saved by bottom-up cleansing within its ranks.” He emphasized that the problems extend beyond the presidency, residing in structures “distant from the president,” such as municipalities.
Motsepe’s appeal to voters questioned
Maphaka contends that voters recognize the ANC’s inability to enact change regardless of leadership, “for as long as the structures adjacent to them are engulfed by incompetence and corruption, etc.” He further suggests Motsepe’s connections to the business community and President Cyril Ramaphosa may hinder his appeal, potentially allowing him to win the ANC presidency but not the national election. Some ANC structures have already begun campaigning for Motsepe, with reports of “PM27” T-shirts being printed.
Political analyst Prof Ntsikelelo Breakfast echoed these concerns, stating that the ANC, like other liberation movements, is grappling with “large-scale institutional corruption” characterized by practices like fraud and nepotism. He believes “Brand ANC has been dealt a blow” and that the party, regardless of its leader, “will not get up off its knees” in the foreseeable future.
Candidates
Should Motsepe pursue the ANC presidency, he would likely face current Deputy President Paul Mashatile, who is positioned to succeed President Ramaphosa. Other potential candidates include party national chair Gwede Mantashe (who declined to run due to his age) and deputy secretary-general Nomvula Mokonyane. Fikile Mbalula, Panyaza Lesufi, and Oscar Mabuyane have also been mentioned as potential candidates for the deputy presidency.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary issue facing the ANC, according to the analysts?
The analysts state the primary issue is deep-rooted corruption and failures in governance that extend beyond any single leader, requiring a “bottom-up cleansing” of the party’s structures.
What impact could Patrice Motsepe’s connections have on his potential candidacy?
Analysts suggest Motsepe’s proximity to the business community and his familial connection to President Cyril Ramaphosa (through his sister, Dr Tshepo Motsepe) could negatively impact his appeal to voters.
What does Prof. Breakfast mean when he says “Brand ANC” has been dealt a blow?
Prof. Breakfast means the ANC’s reputation as a party in power and a liberation movement has been significantly damaged by corruption and failures to deliver on the needs of the people.
Given the depth of the challenges facing the ANC, what role might voter disillusionment play in shaping the political landscape in the coming years?