El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This climate pattern increases the risk of heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall globally, with a 63% chance that sea surface temperatures will rise 2°C or more above historical averages between November 2026 and January 2027, per National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data.
What is a “Super El Niño” and how does it happen?
A “super” El Niño occurs when equatorial Pacific waters heat up by 2°C (3.6°F) or more above the average. The WMO currently reports that conditions are already underway and could intensify into a strong event. This happens when trade winds, which usually push warm water toward Asia, weaken. This allows warm surface water to flow back toward the Americas.
This shift moves the Pacific jet stream—a 7,000-mile “conveyor belt” of air—south of its normal path. This redirection alters weather patterns across North America and the rest of the world. According to NOAA, a super event is rare; the most recent occurred in 2015-2016, with previous instances in 1997-1998, 1982-1983, and 1972-1973.
How will this affect global temperatures and weather?
The current El Niño could make 2026 or 2027 the hottest year on record. NOAA stated in early May that 2026 was “very likely” to be among the five hottest years on record even before accounting for El Niño’s specific warming impact. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned in June that these conditions “will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.”
Predicted Regional Impacts
- United States: The southern half of the U.S., particularly the Southeast and Gulf Coast, may face a cooler and wetter winter. The northern half typically sees warmer temperatures.
- Pacific & Atlantic: Stronger El Niños often suppress hurricanes in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic but amplify them in the central and eastern Pacific, increasing threats to Hawaii and the Southwest U.S.
- Asia & Caribbean: India and Southeast Asia may experience fewer summer monsoons, while the Caribbean could face drought.
What are the economic risks of a strong El Niño?
The financial toll of these climate shifts can be trillions of dollars. A 2023 study published in the journal Science found that the 1982-83 El Niño caused $4.1 trillion in global income losses. The 1997-98 event was even more severe, cutting global income by $5.7 trillion.
Despite these figures, NOAA physical scientist Michelle L’Heureux told USA Today that stronger events don’t always guarantee stronger impacts. She noted that there is enough uncertainty that a weaker outcome would not be a surprise.
Frequently Asked Questions
These cycles typically happen every two to seven years and last between nine and 12 months. El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.
A weak El Niño is defined by a water temperature rise of 0.5°C (0.9°F) above average.
Not necessarily. According to NOAA, the 2015-2016 super El Niño did not deliver the wetter-than-average winter typically expected in Southern California.
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