Neither health nor the economy: job destruction grows strongly in the United States and Brazil

Although it decreased from the previous months, In the last week 1.2 million people applied for unemployment insurance in the United States, while in Brazil the unemployment rate increased to 13.3% in the second quarter of the year.

The United States Department of Labor reported that there are already 16.1 million people who receive some help for unemployment. However, since the beginning of the pandemic, more than 46 million have processed unemployment insurance.

With claims still exceeding one million per week, the job market has a long way to go to fully recover.

On Capitol Hill, Democratic and Republican legislators are busy drafting a bill to reinforce the amount of unemployment insurance. With negotiations stalled, President Trump threatened to act unilaterally.

While, in Brazil 12.8 million people are without work, according to data for the second quarter reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

According to the official part, the increase in the unemployment rate to 13.3% is directly related to the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to tens of thousands of companies reducing their workforce or directly closing their doors.

IBGE warned that, During the last three months, “all economic sectors in the country have eliminated jobs, which had a greater impact on commerce, which, affected by quarantines and other measures of social isolation, closed 2.1 million places “.

The report also warns that between April and June The country registered a severe drop in the number of employed persons, which fell by 9.6% in relation to the previous quarter and stood at a record low of 83.9 million.

Likewise, a record among the “discouraged”, which is how IBGE considers people who have given up looking for a job and that they were located in 5.7 million for last June.

According to the Bolsonaro government, the labor market in Brazil will only begin to recover to the extent that all economic activities are resumed, although in any case the process will be slow as long as the country does not overcome the health emergency.

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Putin predicted inflation of about 4% :: Politics :: RBC

Vladimir Putin

(Photo: kremlin.ru)

With minimal losses, the Russian economy will overcome the crisis that has arisen due to the coronavirus pandemic, and inflation will reach about 4% in the near future. This was stated by President Vladimir Putin in an interview with the program “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin “on the channel” Russia 1 “.

“Now the year was 3%. Even in today’s conditions, we set ourselves a benchmark of 4%, ”the head of state said, noting that in 1997 inflation was at 11%.

Putin also added that economic reserves have grown 50 times since the 1990s, when Russia was the world’s poorest country.

In May, Rosstat announced the acceleration of annual inflation in April to 3.1% in annual terms (2.5% in March).

Putin said that inflation in Russia does not exceed the previously set framework, and the macroeconomy was managed to be kept in a “working condition”.

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Deloitte called the main anxiety of millenials and generation Z :: Policy :: RBC

Among young Russians are not very many of those who believe that environmental problems cannot be corrected. Among the Millennials in Russia 33% (globally 51%), and, of the buzzer (in the world — 49%). The proportion of Russians and young people in the world who believe that global warming is real and it is caused by humans, the same high — from 75 to 83%.

Annual report of the “Study of Millennials in 2020,” Deloitte is divided into two parts: the study of the representatives of the new generation around the world and specifically in Russia. For a global study at the end of 2019, the authors interviewed 18.4 thousand of Millennials and members of generation Z from 43 countries. Including interviews produced 340 237 Millennials and generation Z from Russia. To Millennials, the authors took the people who were born from January 1983 to December 1994, to generation Z — those born from January 1995 to December 2002.

A global study Deloitte conducted in early 2020 after the spread COVID-19, showed that the list of concerns of young people, as one would expect, has changed. On the first place among the concerns of those out of health care, threats to the environment and unemployment.

Personal alarms

33% of Millennials told researchers that constantly experiencing stress, compared with 44% in the whole world. Among the representatives of generation Z anxiety above: constantly under stress are 40% buzzer in Russia, in the world the number reaches 48%. In this case, young people in Russia believe that stress is not a sufficient reason to miss work. Only 26% of Russians-of Millennials and 41% of the Russian buzzer I believe that in connection with stress can take time off, compared to 50 and 52% in the world.

Ranepa asked youth about the desired level of wages

48% of Millennials in Russia are confident that they will be less happy than their parents; 22% expect to be more happy than the previous generation. Among the Russian buzzer 40% believe there will be unhappy parents, 29% — to be happier.

The Deloitte researchers also interviewed young people about their sources of worry in your personal life. Of Millennials and buzzer are most concerned about things related to work and welfare. Among the main personal concerns — financial well-being in the long term, family welfare and career prospects. Young Russians are worried about their health, a research of Deloitte.

VTSIOM recognized the young people most satisfied with life a part of society

Among those surveyed, 31% of Millennials and 40% buzzer said that would not be able to pay for sudden large expenses. This ratio roughly coincides with the feelings of young people in the whole world. However, only 16% of Millennials and 17% of gen Z in Russia said that over the past six months has been unable to pay their bills, and among young people in the world with such problem faced by 29% of respondents.

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How the job center prepares for influx of unemployed

Until then, everything was going well. Without being flamboyant, the employment situation was gradually improving in France. The number of job seekers in category A, those who are “really “ unemployment was diminishing, slowly but surely, of some 20 000 people per quarter since the end of 2015. The agencies of the Pôle emploi could finally make a work of lace-makers, even if the number of people to follow was important for the councillors.

According to a report in February 2019 by the deputy vosgien Stéphane Viry (LR), agents that are dedicated to the support “reinforced “for the more distant jobs, had 100 records on average. As a result, a quarter of job seekers requiring such support had not been meeting with his counselor in the five months following the registration with Pôle emploi.

“Hundreds of thousands of unemployed more “

In the agencies, there is concern, therefore, that the urgency and scale of a new social crisis repel efforts in the direction of the people furthest from the employment. We started just to get us back to the financial crisis of 2008, tells the story of Sylvie Amblot, steward CFTC in the Hauts-de-France. It was especially hard because it occurred stack at the time of the creation of Pôle emploi, by the merger of the Assedic and the ANPE. This time, we are afraid to have a lot more applicants.

Because even if the devices are deployed during the outbreak of coronavirus have enabled us to absorb partially the shock, the short-term and in the interim are struggling, and some companies have already announced restructuring plans. The month of April, has registered more than 4.5 million job-seekers in category A, a record since the beginning of the statistical series in 1996. And the back looks bleak while traditionally, the month of September is already seeing a rebound in enrollment, due to the termination of contracts of summer and the arrival of the students on vacation.

While Emmanuel Macron must receive Wednesday, June 24, the social partners on employment issues (read at the bottom of the article)the minister of economy has acknowledged, last week, expect “hundreds of thousands of unemployed more “ in the months to come. “We have before us a wave of bankruptcies, a wave of challenges on the job front “, stated Bruno Le Maire said on RTL. For Pôle emploi, all will depend of the height of this wave. We know absorb load spikes “, judge Michael Ohier, deputy director general of the public body. “The difficulty will be if the increase was registered in time.

In the Face of the “machine” Pôle emploi

A lot of people, who have never had to deal with Pôle emploi, will find themselves in front of the machine “it is feared a host agent in a paris outpost. “Losing his job is a situation of suffering that we express more or less aggressive…philosopher his colleague. With more applicants, we will have less time to devote to each.

The direction of the public service, mindful of the influx to come, begins to anticipate. “We study a case of redeployment of certain skills in-house, with a toggle advisors to the “compensation” , says Michael Ohier. Today, approximately 6 700 advisors are specialized in the management of rights to the unemployment allowance and approximately 5 500 is dedicated to relations with the companies, of which 1 000 CDD additional arriving in 2019 for three years.

With the gradual improvement of the labour market up to the outbreak, the latter battalion had grown to favor the insertion and the recruitment so that records of the allowances, less numerous, were a matter easily resolved. Now Place the reverse movement, even if“it will be necessary to keep some company, estimated Lorena Espinosa-Venot, representative of CFDT in the Auvergne region. Because employers are going to be a lot more demanding with every hire, taking into account their own difficulties. “

More advisors to manage the compensation

In 2008, the creation of Pôle emploi had led to the implementation of the “double skills “that is to say, advisors who could both calculate the allocations and to guide the seekers towards employment. Bad experience for the staff at the time, this logic was somewhat faded. Only a few hundred agents have kept this double competence in management today seeks to set in motion.

Off the field, discussions have also been initiated in parallel with the finance ministry and the ministry of the public service for a reinforcement of staff. Finally, plans are afoot to recall CDD and maintain a little longer the future retirees who know the ins and outs of compensation, and service the most vital for the unemployed.

“Job seekers expect to be compensated quickly to be able to stabilize and look for a new post “confirms Laurent America, the national trade Union of the staff of Pôle emploi (Snap PE). Currently, more than 90 % of applications for allocations are processed within a period of three weeks, according to the public body, and the folders that hang around are those for which there is a lack of supporting documentation.

The double stress of the reform of the unemployment insurance

Time and treatment may become more complex with the redesign of the unemployment insurance. Originally scheduled for the 1er April, the second phase of this reform has been shifted to the 1er September. It will be one of the topics of the meeting, Wednesday, June 24, Emmanuel Macron, with the social partners. The calculation of compensation should be reviewed, to lead, to features large, touch-less benefits for a longer time.

Training agents on the new rules is almost over, but in the agencies, we care about this extra stress, both administrative and human. “We’re going to have to manage again the mass unemployment and the distress, summarizes Lorena Espinosa-Venot. With a risk of a passage from the qualitative to the quantitative, which is frustrating for the advisors, but also job seekers, especially the most precarious. “

The risk of the recovery leaves aside the seniors

The organization hopes to absorb a large part of the work of management with the computer tools. “The job center of 2020 is not that of 2009, we have cloud-based a good part of our process “details Michael Ohier. For those who are experiencing difficulties with the digital, or the file is too complicated, telephone support is still possible.

→ BOOK. Pôle emploi, the hidden face

In addition to the claims, some of the new job seekers are going to want or need to reorient yourself. “We will have to escort them on new projects professional, with training adapted to the labour market and their labour pool, recalls Christophe Moreau. The cover will also remain essential for those who were already unemployed for some time before the crisis, and all those who are approaching retirement, who may not benefit from the recovery. “

While the public body expects a decrease in the number of jobseekers for the second half of 2021 at best, the danger is that those already on the bench did not play all season.

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Macron again receives the social partners

Emmanuel Macron meet again on Wednesday, June 24, at 16 hours the employers ‘ organisations and trade unions to talk about, among other things, of partial unemployment and of the reform of the unemployment insurance.

The social partners await “ads “ on the part-time unemployment – the basic plan and the plan of long-term said of “retention in employment “ –, unemployment insurance, vocational training, employment, youth work or detached, the five topics that were discussed during consultations at the ministry of labour, which began on 8 June.

→ INVESTIGATION. Coronavirus : the voyage of the part-time unemployment

These consultations were requested by Emmanuel Macron at a previous meeting with the un numbers of trade unions and employers, on the 4th of June. The social partners hope to be fixed on the reduced activity for the maintenance in employment, partial unemployment of long duration which shall enter into force on the 1er July, and on the future of the reform of the unemployment insurance.

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The CFDT advance proposals for a ” new development mode “

For the secretary-general of the CFDT, Laurent Berger,” the future begins today “: while the economic life resumes its course, it is out of the question to do” start again as before “a model that was already” out of breath “. Already a signatory of the” Pact of the power of live “to the sides of NGOS and associations such as the Nicolas Hulot Foundation, the catholic Relief services or Oxfam, the CFDT has proposed Monday, June 8, his program for the” world after “, around three pillars :” social justice, ecological urgency and the democratic imperative “.

Avoid salary decreases

In the immediate future, the CFDT proposes” the generalisation of the social dialogue on the protocols for the resumption of the activity “. And especially makes the case for avoided “the maximum decline in wages so that consumption will be one of the drivers of recovery “.

→ DEBATE. Will it reduce salaries to avoid layoffs ?

In the Face of the explosion of unemployment, the CFDT wants to use” all the existing tools to contain at maximum job losses “. It calls for a wide consultation on employment, focusing on training : only a” massive investment in skills “ will it dampen the wave of job cuts looming.

Then, the CFDT suggests that” recognizing occupations with a high social added value “by increases long term wages and a work on the classifications. A work that began as a way for caregivers within the framework of the Segur of health.

A pack of young

To combat precariousness, the CFDT proposes to open more widely the RSA-jeunes, while requesting the establishment of a” pack young “: it would be to offer to young people between 18 and 30 years an offer of support to find a job, training, an apprenticeship, a civic service or a work placement by October 2020.

In the longer term, the CFDT proposes to refocus the” growth pact “on the décarbonation of the industry and full employment. This effort should build on “transition contracts environmental “and by concrete actions, particularly on the supply chains of companies. The” reparability “products, as well as recycling, should be indicators better taken into account.

Aid subject to conditions

The union also proposes to put in place a” conditionality systematic state aid “so that the strategies of companies include sustainable development goals. For better control of the decisions, the CFDT suggests strengthening democracy at all levels, in particular in the boards of directors with more “co-determination “. It also decides in favour of the” co-construction of the purpose of businesses “, an approach already adopted by several listed companies to complete their economic objectives by environmental and social goals.

On the tax component, the CFDT has positioned itself in favour of a strengthened input from more affluent, with” a flat tax progressive on the capital “.

The abandonment of the reform of the unemployment insurance

At european level, the CFDT proposes” boost the Green Deal “in fléchant 3% of GDP to” the ecological transition fair “. At the same time, it should be taken into account “new indicators of wealth “to measure the growth, whose life expectancy in good health or income inequalities.

→ TO READ. Job center reopens, but still no negotiations on unemployment insurance

With these new proposals, the union stimulus by the government, which had sent, according to Lawrence Berger, a” answer elliptical “the 15 measures proposed by the member organisations of the” Pact for the power to live ” in early may. The CFDT would appreciate, before any” the states-general “, immediate action” at the height of the expectations “, including the abandonment of the reform of the unemployment insurance, suspended but not canceled at this day.

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The Bank of France predicted a historic high in unemployment for 2021

A horizon gloomy. It is, according to an estimate published on Tuesday 9 June by the Bank of France, which expects a recession of about 10 % this year, despite a recovery “progressive “ of the activity from the third quarter. A consequence of the pandemic of sars coronavirus, which resulted in France and a large part of the world to an economic crisis of magnitude.

The Bank of France considers that the GDP of the Hexagon will not return to its pre-crisis level before mid-2022. The gross domestic product is expected to rebound by 7% in 2021, and then increase by another 4 % in 2022, provides for the French central bank in a scenario that is based on a movement of the Covid-19 under control and an economy that adapts, even if the unemployment will be a higher peak at 11.5 % in mid-2021.

The household savings rate will exceed 22 %

The item “essential “ the recovery will be the pace of the rebound in household consumption. It is “likely that the rise in expected unemployment, and the overall context of high uncertainty continue to weigh on purchasing behaviour “judge , the Bank of France. Savings has accumulated around 100 billion euros, the household savings rate will rise to 22 % this year and consumption will decline by 9.3 %.

→ TO READ. The Covid-19 will have a major impact on the european banking sector

If the device massive partial unemployment set up by the government is going to somewhat slow down the impact of the crisis on employment and the purchasing power this year, the unemployment rate is expected to reach more than 10 % by the end of 2020, and climb up to a higher peak at 11.5 % in mid-2021, a level “above the previous historic “, projected the Bank of France.

And again, it will take until 2022 to see it go back down to 9.7 %. The purchasing power is expected to decline slightly by 0.5% this year, before starting to increase again but at a rate much lower than the activity.

All of this scenario of recovery is based on a movement of the Covid-19 persistent, but under control, and an economy that adapts to the constraints of sanitary ware. And it does not take account of future stimulus measures that the government should take, both in its new amended budget and in the stimulus package announced for the new school year.

This recovery could also be faster if a medical solution for the perennial came in mid-2021, note the Bank of France. Or, conversely, much slower if the epidemic had begun to force and imposed new measures of containment, she says.

In summary, even if the activity has restarted since the gradual lifting of the confinement on the 11th of may, “we are far from out of business “says the governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau.

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Unemployment in the USA peaked since the Great Depression :: Economy :: RBC

According to The Washington Post, the US hospitality sector lost about 7.7 million jobs, retail – 2.1 million, production – 1.3 million. In addition, jobs in the health care system fell by about 1.4 million, so as in a crisis, people postpone requests for medical care, except urgent.

About 18 million people who lost their jobs in April reported that their dismissal was temporary, as companies expected the suspension of the economy to be short-lived. Another 2 million claimed that they had finally lost their last job.

US predicts unemployment rate of Great Depression after pandemic

Nevertheless, the unemployment rate recorded in April was not as dramatic as previously predicted. In the middle of the month, The Wall Street Journal wrote that the expected losses would amount to 22 million jobs and the unemployment rate would reach 18%.

During the Great Depression in the USA, the maximum unemployment rate was recorded in 1932 and amounted to 25.5%.

At the end of April, the presidential adviser on economics Kevin Hasset warned that after the coronavirus pandemic is over, unemployment in the country could come close to the times of the Great Depression. He called the current crisis the largest in the US economy.

In order to protect the interests of Americans losing their jobs because of the coronavirus, Trump signed a decree on the suspension of immigration. According to him, this will guarantee that unemployed citizens of the country will be the first in the queue to get work.

World Coronavirus Spread Rate

Cases per day

Source: JHU

World Data i

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Bruno Le Maire is also on LinkedIn

If politicians have long expressed interest in debates on Facebook, Bruno Le Maire has decided to inaugurate a new communication channel.

→ LIVE. Coronavirus: the latest news in France and worldwide on May 4

Barely finished an intervention on the radio in the morning, it was on the LinkedIn site, the social network devoted to the professional world, that the Minister of the Economy worked on Monday May 4 to respond to the calls of the actors of the economic world.

Worried little bosses

Before the opening of the video session, questions already abounded from restaurant owners, gyms or training centers, managers of clothing stores or vacation centers, freelancers or creators of companies. Most of the questions focused on the difficulties specific to their sector or their company, but nevertheless revealed recurring concerns.

The question of rents, in particular, has often returned to the merchant side. The minister recalled the agreement obtained from the major land groups to cancel three months’ rent for the smallest businesses. But Bruno Le Maire recognizes this, this will only affect 10 to 15% of these smaller companies.

The others are therefore invited to enter into negotiations with their owner. ” It is right that the rent should go down and it is in everyone’s interest to avoid the proliferation of bankruptcies Says the Minister.

“Economy on a drip”

Another subject that often comes up is the upcoming reduction in the partial unemployment system, which already worries many employers. ” We cannot live sustainably with an economy on a drip, financed by public funds “Replied the Minister, deeming it therefore necessary” to progressively evolve, I mean progressively, the system To encourage people to return to work. The priority, he explained, is ” to keep public money for sectors that have no other choice »And will remain permanently impacted, like catering or tourism.

Faced with business leaders who demand visibility, Bruno Le Maire assured that a possible postponement of the deconfinement would not concern the resumption of economic activities. He also once again promised that the government would announce the ” date and protocols For the reopening of cafes or leisure establishments.

The challenge of recovery

While several employees of the company Corsair had met on the site to question the minister on the assistance given to Air France, the latter replied that the state could obviously help other airlines. With one condition, however: ” that shareholders also do their part of the way

→ EXPLANATION. France and the Netherlands at the head of the Air France-KLM flagship

Bruno Le Maire also warned that once the deconfinement had passed, the hardest thing would probably begin. The period before the return to normal will be long and marked by two risks, he pointed out: a problem of solvency of companies which can lead to an increase in bankruptcies, and a possible acceleration of layoffs as long as activity remains slowed down .

This transition period is likely to last for months and probably years. It looks like ” a challenge “, Noted Bruno Le Maire because for the first time” we will have to work with a virus that continues to circulate and for which we do not have a vaccine

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Renzi, last appeal to Conte: ‘No of Iv if he is a populist’ – Politics

“Last appeal” of Renzi to Conte in the Senate. “Let’s face it: we are at a crossroads. He was good at reassuring the Italians, he was very good. The point, however, is that in phase 2 of politics it is not enough to play on fear and concern. There is a reconstruction to do which is devastating and will require vision and courageous choices. Give an extra eye to Istat’s data or we will not be by your side. If you choose the path of populism you will not have Italy alive by your side. Our country – continues Renzi – has had moments when politics abdicated its responsibilities, in 92-93 abdicated the judiciary, in the first decade of 2000 when it abdicated technicians, now we cannot abdicate virologists, we cannot ask them how to fight unemployment, touch to politics. There is a new deeper division between guaranteed and unsecured. We call you to have a broader look at the economic future. We will vote on the liquidity decree prepared by Gualtieri but the world v forward and in front of this now is the time to act: to prevent, not to chase. Be more cautious when speaking to Italians: you said 11 times ‘we allow’. A prime minister doesn’t allow it, because constitutional freedoms come before you. She doesn’t allow them, she recognizes them. I denied Salvini full powers: I didn’t do it to give it to others. Coronavirus is a terrible beast that has made 30 thousand deaths in the most cowardly way but we are not on the Coronavirus side when we say to reopen, we honor those dead. The people of Bergamo and Brescia who are no longer there, if they could speak, would tell us to reopen. “

“Which ultimatum? Conte replies – Renzi asked to do politics? It is what we are doing, so there is no ultimatum”. So does the majority still exist? He is asked. “Yes,” replies the Prime Minister.

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