Militant groups affiliated with al-Qaeda in Mali are shifting from overt violence to administrative governance, according to residents and regional experts. The group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) has increasingly softened its rhetoric in its strongholds, collecting agricultural taxes and mediating local disputes to establish political legitimacy. While the Malian government rejects dialogue, citing the group’s history of violence, analysts suggest this evolution reflects a strategic move to secure territory and influence local populations.
Why is JNIM changing its tactics in Mali?
JNIM is adopting a more pragmatic approach to governance to solidify its presence in rural areas, according to Corinne Dufka, a Sahel expert who has tracked the group for over a decade. As the group has grown in strength, it has reduced the need for immediate, indiscriminate violence. In villages like Poutchi, residents report that militants now focus on distributing food and medicine rather than issuing threats. This shift is a survival strategy for both the militants, who gain local acquiescence, and the villagers, who seek a predictable alternative to the insecurity caused by the broader conflict.
While JNIM has softened its rhetoric in many areas, the group continues to enforce rigid social codes, such as banning music, smoking, and certain wedding celebrations, as part of its interpretation of Islamic law.
How do government forces compare to JNIM in civilian treatment?
Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project indicates that Malian soldiers and their Russian partners have been responsible for three to four times more civilian deaths than jihadist groups over the last two years. This disparity has fueled local resentment, which experts suggest drives some young men to join JNIM. While the Malian government denies targeting civilians, labeling its operations as counter-terrorism, residents in several regions report that the perceived stability under JNIM, despite its strict rules, is preferable to the violence associated with state security operations.
What is the future of the JNIM-separatist alliance?
In April, JNIM deepened its cooperation with Tuareg-led separatists, such as the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), to seize army bases. Bilal Ag Cherif, leader of the FLA, told Reuters that he has observed “positive changes” in JNIM, including an increased openness to local interpretations of Islam. Cherif argues that a long-term resolution to northern Mali’s instability is impossible without incorporating these groups into broader political discussions. However, Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop has explicitly rejected any dialogue with these organizations, maintaining that the government will not negotiate with entities it classifies as terrorists.
When analyzing security in the Sahel, look for the distinction between “governance” and “control.” JNIM often gains influence by filling the vacuum left by the withdrawal of state services, but they frequently maintain these positions through a combination of community persuasion and the threat of severe reprisal.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Who is JNIM? JNIM is an al-Qaeda-affiliated militant group formed in 2017 that operates across the Sahel region of West Africa.
- Why does the Malian government refuse to talk to these groups? The government, led by military officers who seized power in 2020 and 2021, categorizes these groups as terrorists responsible for long-term regional instability.
- What happens to civilians under JNIM rule? Experiences vary; while some residents report increased safety and dispute resolution, others face strict social restrictions or life-threatening blockades that cut off access to food and medicine.
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