The political landscape heading into the 2026 midterm elections is delivering some unexpected results. As the Republican Party attempts to contain a string of unfavorable outcomes, a historic electoral upset in Texas has set alarms ringing within conservative circles. A Democratic candidate won a Texas Senate seat in a state that Donald Trump carried in the 2024 election, marking a turning point in the Republican strategy to maintain its dominance.
Democrat Taylor Rehmet scored the surprise victory in a district near Fort Worth, defeating Republican Leigh Wambsganss with 57% of the vote to her opponent’s 43% in a runoff election held in a traditionally Republican district.
Let’s examine why this matters, along with some important caveats.
Democrats have been overperforming expectations in special elections by significant margins since President Donald Trump won the 2024 election. But Texas represents one of the biggest shifts to date.
While Trump won the district by approximately 17 points in 2024, the Democrat held a 14-point advantage with nearly all votes counted as of Sunday morning. That’s a margin of roughly 31 points, and one of the strongest performances by the party in recent special elections.
For comparison, strong Democratic performances in congressional elections that received significant attention last year generally fell between 15% and 20%.
Furthermore, this marks the first time a Democrat will represent the northern part of Tarrant County in the state Senate since the early 1980s, according to veteran local political journalist Bud Kennedy.
The District is Larger Than a U.S. Congressional District
Many of the best Democratic performances in special elections occur in small state legislative districts, where large swings are possible with few voters. But Texas Senate District 9 is not small.
In fact, it is larger than a U.S. Congressional district.
There are fewer state Senate districts (31) than congressional districts (38) in Texas. So this district encompasses nearly 1 million people, compared to less than 800,000 in an average congressional district.
The election was significant enough to draw the involvement of national committees, leading state Republicans, and even Trump himself.
Trump posted as many as three messages of support for the election in recent days, clearly intending to boost Republican turnout on election day.
But it didn’t work. In fact, Democrats actually outperformed their early voting numbers on election day. While Rehmet won early voting 56-44, he won election day voting 58% to 42%, according to results from Tarrant County.
Clearly, Trump’s call to action went unheeded.
Wambsganss, a well-connected local political activist, also significantly out-raised Rehmet, a union leader and Air Force veteran.
Recent campaign finance disclosures showed she had raised over $2.5 million throughout her campaign, compared to less than $400,000 for Rehmet according to recent campaign finance reports.
The surprise is one thing; where it happened is another. Tarrant County is often considered an important electoral thermometer, not just in Texas but nationally.
It’s home to major defense contractors and has long been a hub for Christian nationalism. It has been strongly Republican for decades and was a focus of Tea Party activism during the Obama administration. But it has also become more competitive in recent years.
If there’s one place where Democrats would truly want to make inroads, it’s somewhere like this.
This outcome could also inject some hope into Democrats’ ambitions to achieve the seemingly impossible: win a federal Senate election in Texas this year. Democrats need to make gains in Republican states to flip the chamber.
But that remains a difficult goal, given that Democrats haven’t won statewide in Texas since the 1990s. Democratic hopes may hinge on the right candidates winning their primaries, particularly if state Attorney General Ken Paxton wins on the Republican side, as he is generally considered weaker electorally than Senator John Cornyn.
There are some important caveats to how encouraged Democrats should be. Most importantly, special elections don’t always predict the upcoming regular election. It’s fairly evident today that Trump’s base is disproportionately composed of voters who don’t participate as much in lower-profile elections.
This contest also had low turnout, likely due to being held on an unusual day—Saturday—during a period of unusual cold in Texas. There were fewer than 100,000 votes cast, compared to approximately 180,000 in the recent, closely watched special congressional election in Tennessee. And, as noted, that Tennessee election was in a smaller district.
At the same time, the Democratic candidate also significantly outperformed the usual Democratic percentage in the primary, which was held on regular election day in November and had higher turnout: nearly 120,000 voters. At that time, Rehmet received 48% and nearly won the seat without needing a runoff.
And then there are local politics. Wambsganss is a long-time activist who played a key role in a conservative social push to take control of local school boards earlier this decade. But there is evidence that this was a step too far for voters, who replaced several of the partisan members with more moderate ones in subsequent elections.
It seems possible that she alienated some moderate voters, and even some Republicans, whom Rehmet was hoping to persuade.
Frequently Asked Questions
What happened in the Texas Senate District 9 election?
Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss in a runoff election for the Texas Senate District 9 seat, a traditionally Republican district.
How big of a surprise was this result?
The result was a significant upset. Trump won the district by 17 points in 2024, while Rehmet won by 14 points, representing a 31-point swing.
Is this district representative of the state of Texas as a whole?
The district is larger than a typical U.S. Congressional district, encompassing nearly 1 million people, and is considered an important electoral bellwether for the state and the nation.
What does this outcome suggest about the future of elections in Texas?
