Chelmsford’s Thursday Night Picks: Flicka’s Girl and Arantes Nascimento Poised for Victory
Thursday evening’s racing at Chelmsford features two compelling contenders, according to racing analyst Alan Dudman. Dudman is backing Flicka’s Girl in the 19:00 race at 10/3 odds and Arantes Nascimento in the 19:30 at 4/1.
Flicka’s Girl: A Tactical Shift for Success
Flicka’s Girl is stepping up to 6f, a distance change Dudman believes is strategically sound. The horse struggled with a frantic pace at Lingfield recently, finishing third, but showed promise. Notably, the 3f sectional time of 10.47 seconds at Lingfield was considered strong for a Classified runner.
Previous runs at Wolverhampton also indicated potential, with a fast final furlong despite running on the inside rail – a disadvantage, according to Dudman. A previous win at Chelmsford in January, making all the running over 5f, further supports a positive outlook. The analyst highlights a significant difference in starting times between the January Chelmsford win and the recent Lingfield run, with the Chelmsford start being almost half a second quicker.
Dudman notes that the draw in stall nine isn’t ideal, but suggests several other horses in the race are prone to slow starts, potentially influencing the pace favorably.
Arantes Nascimento: A Strong Contender with Jockey Advantage
Arantes Nascimento, currently rated 72, is considered a strong contender in the 19:30 race. The booking of jockey Sean Levey is seen as a positive, given Levey’s past success with trainer Michael Attwater – one win and four places in eight rides.
The horse recently finished second in a race where the winner, Vince Lombardi, benefited from a favorable inside position and early lead. Data shows Arantes Nascimento ran four of the seven furlongs faster than the winner, indicating a strong performance hampered by the race dynamics.
Dudman believes the 4/1 odds are attractive, particularly compared to the 7/4 favorite. Arantes Nascimento previously finished second over the Chelmsford distance on January 2nd, with a 1lb higher rating and Levey riding.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is a Classified Stakes race?
A: A Classified Stakes is a type of horse race for horses that haven’t won a certain number of races, offering a competitive field for developing horses.
Q: Why is the jockey important?
A: A skilled jockey can build a significant difference in a race, particularly in navigating pace, and positioning.
Q: What does “CD” mean in racing terms?
A: CD stands for Course and Distance, referring to a horse’s performance on the specific track and distance of the current race.
Q: What is a sectional time?
A: A sectional time is the time taken to run a specific portion of a race, providing insights into a horse’s pace and stamina.
Pro Tip: Pay attention to the early pace of a race. Horses that can settle into a good position without being rushed often have a strong finishing kick.
Did you realize? Chelmsford City Racecourse is an all-weather track, meaning races can be held regardless of weather conditions.
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