The Shifting Sands of US-Russia Relations: Is Business Now Driving Geopolitics?
The pursuit of a resolution to Russia’s war on Ukraine is undergoing a subtle but significant shift. Increasingly, commercial interests appear to be taking precedence over traditional military and political considerations in US-Russia talks, a development that carries substantial risks.
From Diplomacy to Deals: A Changing Landscape
Early in his second term, Donald Trump signaled a desire to normalize relations with Russia, initiating direct communication with Vladimir Putin and facilitating meetings between top diplomats. While these talks initially focused on political and military issues, a commercial undercurrent quickly emerged. Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, emphasized the financial opportunities lost by US companies following their exit from Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, effectively dangling the prospect of lucrative returns to entice re-entry.
This message resonated within the American business community, sparking interest in potential sanctions relief and a return to the Russian market. The August 2025 summit in Alaska, though failing to yield a formal agreement, further highlighted this trend, with reports suggesting Russia was preparing the legal framework for ExxonMobil’s return to the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project.
The Rise of the ‘Suits’ and the Diminishing Role of Diplomats
Recent developments have seen a marked change in the personnel involved in US-Russia negotiations. Traditional diplomats like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, both with strong ties to the business world, are now at the forefront, overshadowing the role of state department officials. Dmitriev continues to promote business opportunities, even publicly suggesting ambitious infrastructure projects like a tunnel under the Bering Strait.
This shift signals a fundamental reorientation of priorities. For Putin, the drivers of the war remain territorial, political, and military. For Trump and his associates, however, private wealth and commercial opportunities appear to be paramount. This divergence raises serious questions about the sustainability of any potential peace agreement.
The Perils of ‘Wandel Durch Handel’ Revisited
The current approach echoes the flawed “wandel durch handel” (change through trade) policy pursued by the West in the 1990s and early 2000s. The belief that economic engagement would foster political stability in Russia proved demonstrably false. The assumption that re-attaching the US and Russian economies will automatically lead to a new political understanding is equally dubious.
Russia’s business environment has undergone significant changes since the start of the war, presenting substantial risks for Western companies. A return to the market would require a considerable appetite for risk, and many businesses may be wary of the potential consequences.
Europe’s Divergent Path
While the US appears to be cautiously moving towards normalization, Europe remains largely committed to a policy of sanctions and punishment. This divergence creates a potential competitive advantage for the US, allowing it to potentially re-establish commercial ties with Russia ahead of its European counterparts. However, it also risks further straining transatlantic relations.
FAQ
Q: What is “wandel durch handel”?
A: A German policy of the Cold War era that aimed to promote political change in Eastern Europe through increased trade and economic engagement. It ultimately proved unsuccessful in fundamentally altering the political systems of those countries.
Q: What role is Kirill Dmitriev playing in these negotiations?
A: Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, is acting as a key liaison between Russian businesses and the US business community, promoting investment opportunities and advocating for sanctions relief.
Q: Is ExxonMobil planning to return to Russia?
A: ExxonMobil denied plans to return to Russia, despite reports suggesting Russia was preparing the legal groundwork for their re-entry into the Sakhalin-1 project.
Q: What are the risks of prioritizing commercial interests over political concerns?
A: It risks undermining the fundamental drivers of the conflict, ignoring Putin’s core objectives, and potentially creating a situation where economic gains are prioritized over lasting peace and stability.
Did you know? The idea of a tunnel connecting Russia and the US across the Bering Strait has been proposed multiple times throughout history, dating back to the late 19th century.
Pro Tip: Businesses considering re-entering the Russian market should conduct thorough due diligence and carefully assess the political and economic risks involved.
What are your thoughts on the shifting dynamics in US-Russia relations? Share your perspective in the comments below.
