Mexico City – A new challenge has emerged for Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum as she navigates the balance between Mexico’s interests and demands from the White House. President Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba has created a difficult situation for Mexico.
A Difficult Choice for Mexico
Sheinbaum stated on Friday that Mexico will seek clarification from Washington to avoid a critical decision: cease oil shipments to Cuba, potentially causing a humanitarian crisis, or face new tariffs on Mexican exports to the United States. She warned that halting oil deliveries could lead to a catastrophic scenario, including power outages affecting hospitals, homes, and essential services for Cuba’s 11 million residents.
Despite the potential consequences for Cuba, Sheinbaum indicated she would not risk additional U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports, given Mexico’s reliance on cross-border trade. “We cannot put our country at risk in terms of tariffs,” she told reporters.
Escalating Tensions
For the past year, Sheinbaum has successfully defended against Washington’s attempts to impose new tariffs on Mexico, even earning praise from Trump. However, the executive order targeting oil supplies to Cuba presents a new obstacle. Trump issued the order on Thursday, stating it was intended to protect “U.S. national security and foreign policy from the Cuban regime’s malign actions and policies.”
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel condemned Trump’s move on social media, labeling it a “fascist, criminal and genocidal” plan to “asphyxiate” the Cuban economy, which is already facing shortages of gasoline and frequent blackouts.
Sheinbaum is also working to dissuade Trump from deploying U.S. military assets against cartels within Mexico, asserting that any such action would violate Mexican sovereignty.
Shifting Oil Dynamics
The urgency of Mexican crude for Cuba has increased following the recent ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, previously Cuba’s primary oil supplier. Havana reported that 32 Cuban officers serving with Maduro’s security detail were killed during the operation. Maduro’s fall led to a halt in Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba, while U.S. imports of Venezuelan oil have increased.
Mexico supplied Cuba with approximately 20,000 barrels of oil per day in 2025, according to Jorge R. Piñon, an energy expert at the University of Texas. However, shipments have significantly decreased this year, reportedly due to U.S. pressure. Piñon stated, “The faucets are being shut off,” and described Sheinbaum as “walking a tightrope.”
Without imports, Cuba faces a daily oil shortfall of around 60,000 barrels. While Russia, Angola, Algeria, and Brazil are potential alternative sources, it remains uncertain whether they would risk defying the White House to assist Cuba.
Internal Divisions
Mexico’s support for Cuba has historically been a point of national pride, representing a foreign policy independent of the United States. Past Mexican leaders, including Sheinbaum, have criticized the decades-long U.S. embargo against Cuba as an illegal blockade harming ordinary Cubans.
The U.S. effort to block Mexican oil exports to Cuba is also creating divisions within Mexico’s ruling Morena political bloc. While some members have criticized Washington’s actions, others, like Morena senator Ricardo Sheffield, have urged caution, warning that continued oil shipments to Cuba could lead to further problems with the U.S.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core issue facing Mexico?
Mexico is facing a difficult choice between continuing oil shipments to Cuba, potentially triggering a humanitarian crisis if halted, and risking new tariffs from the United States if it continues those shipments.
Why is Cuba reliant on oil imports?
Cuba’s primary oil supplier, Venezuela, has ceased shipments following the ouster of President Nicolás Maduro, creating a significant oil shortfall of approximately 60,000 barrels per day.
What is the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on Mexico?
President Sheinbaum has stated that Mexico cannot risk additional U.S. tariffs, given the country’s heavy dependence on cross-border trade with the United States.
How will President Sheinbaum navigate this complex situation, and what compromises might be necessary to balance Mexico’s interests and international pressures?
