The United States, under President Donald Trump, is reportedly considering a strategy for Cuba centered on economic pressure and internal power shifts. Sources consulted by Bloomberg suggest the aim is to transform the island into a nation financially dependent on Washington, described by analysts as a form of American economic protectorate.
This strategy would not involve direct military invasion, but rather a gradual process of financial pressure, energy isolation, and negotiations with figures within the Cuban political system who could lead a controlled transition.
According to individuals familiar with deliberations in Washington, the ultimate goal is to replace the current Cuban leadership and force a reconfiguration of the economic model to align the island with the United States.
Economic Pressure to Force Dependence
Bloomberg reports that Trump intends to use economic pressure to compel Cuba to financially rely on Washington, effectively taking the role previously held by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Sources explained the plan seeks for the U.S. To “essentially accept the place of its old rival, the Soviet Union, which kept Cuba afloat before its collapse in 1991.”
Trump recently expressed confidence about the future of the Cuban regime, stating, “Cuba is ready, after 50 years.”
Since January, the White House has intensified economic pressure on Havana, including a quarantine on oil destined for the Cuban government. This measure aims to economically cripple the state while allowing fuel supply to the emerging private sector. Trump reportedly used tariff threats to persuade Mexico, a key oil supplier to Cuba after Venezuela’s departure, to suspend shipments.
A Model Inspired by Venezuela
Sources cited by Bloomberg indicate Trump views the recent political shift in Venezuela as a model. In that scenario, the United States reportedly removed Nicolás Maduro from power and supported an administration more aligned with Washington. The new Venezuelan government, led by Delcy Rodríguez, maintains elements of socialist rhetoric but has cooperated with Washington in opening strategic sectors to American investment. Trump has even praised Rodríguez for her willingness to collaborate.
The strategy for Cuba would follow a similar logic: replacing current leadership without completely dismantling the system, but orienting the country toward a close economic relationship with Washington.
Conversations with Figures Close to Power
Bloomberg reports that U.S. Officials have been in contact with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of former Cuban ruler Raúl Castro. Rodríguez Castro is a colonel in the Ministry of the Interior with close ties to the military conglomerate controlling key sectors of the Cuban economy. Some within the Trump administration consider him a potential pragmatic leader capable of negotiating agreements outside revolutionary orthodoxy.
The objective in Washington is to replace current President Miguel Díaz-Canel, whom they blame for the island’s economic collapse and deem incapable of leading necessary political and economic reforms. Republican Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart confirmed this week that conversations are taking place with people “close” to Raúl Castro, stating in an interview with CBS that the current Cuban regime may not survive Trump’s term, which extends until January 2029.
Rumors of Intervention and the Negotiated Option
Speculation about potential U.S. Military action against Cuba has increased in Washington in recent weeks, fueled by statements from presidential allies. Senator Lindsey Graham, for example, stated on Fox News that “Iran is going to fall, and Cuba is next.” However, individuals close to Trump’s thinking assure that military invasion is not the preferred option. The current focus is a negotiated transition within the Cuban system, accompanied by economic pressure to accelerate the process.
Kimberly Breier, former Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs during Trump’s first term, explained that the goal is to avoid chaos. “The predominant factor in both Venezuela and Cuba is stability,” she said. “The administration wants change, but doesn’t aim for it to be chaotic, drive mass migration, or create more space for adversaries.”
The Reaction from Havana
The Cuban government has denounced Washington’s energy pressure measures. Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Carlos Fernández de Cossío described the U.S. Quarantine on Cuban energy imports as “a form of collective punishment that persists.” President Miguel Díaz-Canel has reiterated Cuba’s willingness to dialogue with the United States, but only “on equal terms,” and warned that the country is strengthening its defensive capabilities.
An Economy on the Brink of Collapse
This U.S. Plan unfolds amidst a deep economic crisis in Cuba. After decades of a centralized model, international sanctions, and the loss of strategic allies, the Cuban economy faces energy shortages, inflation, and a growing humanitarian crisis. Washington has sent $9 million in humanitarian aid through the Catholic Church, aiming to bypass the Cuban government.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary goal of the U.S. Strategy toward Cuba?
The primary goal, according to sources, is to transform Cuba into a nation financially dependent on Washington, effectively creating an American economic protectorate.
Is a military invasion of Cuba being considered?
While speculation about military action has increased, individuals close to President Trump state that a military invasion is not the preferred option at this time.
Who is Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro and why is he significant?
Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro is the grandson of former Cuban ruler Raúl Castro, a colonel in the Ministry of the Interior, and is considered by some within the Trump administration as a potential pragmatic leader capable of negotiating agreements.
Given the current economic pressures and political maneuvering, what impact will these developments have on the daily lives of Cuban citizens?
