For decades, the United States has been a central architect of the international order established after 1945. That order—characterized by rules-based trade, international cooperation, and relative peace among major powers—is now facing unprecedented strain. According to a recent analysis, the current U.S. administration, under President Donald Trump, is not simply allowing this order to decline, but actively accelerating its demise and ushering in a new era of global anarchy.
A Shift in Global Order
The post-World War II era saw a period of stability largely attributed to the influence of the United States and its allies. However, the analysis points to a return to a more chaotic state of affairs, reminiscent of the first half of the 20th century—a period marked by world wars, economic depression, and pandemic. This new anarchy, it argues, is distinct from previous periods of international disorder due to the speed and scale of change enabled by modern technology.
The analysis highlights President Trump’s disregard for established norms, particularly the principle that international borders should not be redrawn by force. This, coupled with a perceived weakening of domestic institutions, allows for unchecked foreign policy decisions. The emerging anarchy is described as “Hobbesian”—a “war of all against all” where power is absolute and unchallenged.
Realism and Anarchy
The piece acknowledges that the concept of anarchy is central to realist theories of international relations, which posit that the absence of a global authority forces nations to prioritize self-preservation. However, it distinguishes between a traditional understanding of anarchy—where prudence and resource management act as constraints—and the current situation. The current administration, it argues, is not acting with the caution typically associated with a realist approach.
The analysis explores the theory of “hegemonic stability,” which suggests that a dominant power provides order through rules and cooperation. While the United States once fulfilled this role, it is now described as a “declining hegemon” that is actively undermining the foundations of its own power. The costly interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, coupled with the rise of China, have already stretched U.S. resources.
Domestic Implications
The analysis extends beyond foreign policy, noting a parallel erosion of democratic institutions within the United States. This internal weakening, it argues, mirrors the external dismantling of international rules and norms. President Trump has reportedly taken steps to consolidate power, bypassing or ignoring checks and balances from Congress, the judiciary, and other established bodies.
The administration’s actions—including the declaration of numerous states of emergency, the imposition of tariffs, and the deployment of federal forces—are presented as evidence of a move towards unchecked executive authority. This domestic trend, combined with the aggressive foreign policy, creates a uniquely chaotic and unpredictable global landscape.
What Might Come Next?
The analysis suggests that the current trajectory could lead to a world where the United States is no longer a reliable partner or guarantor of stability. Other nations may seek alternative alliances or pursue their own interests without regard for U.S. concerns. China could potentially fill the power vacuum, though the analysis does not predict this outcome definitively. It is also possible that a new order will emerge from this chaos, but it is unlikely to be led by—or benefit—the United States.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is meant by “anarchy” in this context?
The analysis defines anarchy not as complete chaos, but as the absence of a central authority in the international system. This means countries must rely on their own power and strategy for survival, as described by realist scholars of international relations.
How is the current situation different from previous periods of international instability?
The current anarchy is described as more chaotic and accelerated due to the speed and reach of modern technology. The administration’s ability to act quickly and decisively, combined with a disregard for established norms, creates a level of unpredictability not seen before.
What is “hegemonic stability theory”?
Hegemonic stability theory suggests that the international system is more stable when one country dominates and provides public goods, such as security alliances and economic cooperation. The analysis argues that the United States is currently undermining its own hegemonic position.
Given these developments, how might the global balance of power shift in the coming years?
