The Escalating Targeting of Civilian Infrastructure in Modern Warfare
The recent attack on a passenger train in eastern Ukraine, reportedly carried out by Russian drones, marks a grim escalation in a disturbing trend: the deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure during armed conflict. While not a new tactic, the frequency and brazenness of such attacks are raising serious concerns about the future of warfare and the protection of non-combatants.
Beyond Traditional Military Objectives
Historically, military strategy focused on disabling the enemy’s ability to wage war – armies, factories, supply lines. However, modern conflicts increasingly see infrastructure vital to civilian life – power grids, water treatment plants, transportation networks, and even hospitals – becoming explicit targets. This isn’t simply collateral damage; it’s a calculated strategy to break the enemy’s will to resist, destabilize their society, and inflict maximum suffering.
The attack on the Ukrainian train, resulting in at least five deaths, exemplifies this. While Ukraine acknowledges the railway’s dual-use nature (transporting both civilians and military personnel), the deliberate targeting of a passenger train filled with hundreds of people crosses a significant moral and legal line. President Zelenskyy’s characterization of the act as terrorism underscores the severity of the situation.
The Rise of Drone Warfare and Accessibility
The proliferation of drone technology is a key driver of this trend. Drones are relatively inexpensive, readily available, and can be deployed with precision, making it easier than ever to target infrastructure. Unlike traditional air strikes, drone attacks can be launched covertly, minimizing the risk to the attacker. This accessibility lowers the barrier to entry for both state and non-state actors, increasing the likelihood of such attacks.
Consider the 2019 attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, widely attributed to Iran-backed Houthi rebels using drones. These attacks demonstrated the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to relatively low-cost technology, sending shockwaves through global energy markets. Similarly, the ongoing conflict in Yemen has seen widespread damage to infrastructure, hindering humanitarian aid efforts and exacerbating the already dire humanitarian crisis.
The Legal and Ethical Implications
International humanitarian law (IHL) prohibits attacks that are indiscriminate or that cause disproportionate harm to civilians. Targeting civilian infrastructure is a violation of IHL if it doesn’t offer a clear and direct military advantage. However, interpreting “military advantage” is often subjective, and states frequently justify attacks on infrastructure by claiming it supports enemy military operations.
The ambiguity surrounding these legal definitions creates a gray area that allows for the justification of attacks that would otherwise be considered war crimes. Furthermore, the lack of effective accountability mechanisms makes it difficult to prosecute those responsible for such violations.
Future Trends: What to Expect
Several trends suggest that the targeting of civilian infrastructure will likely become more common in future conflicts:
Increased Cyberattacks on Critical Infrastructure
Alongside physical attacks, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure are poised to increase. Power grids, water systems, and communication networks are all vulnerable to cyber intrusions, which can disrupt essential services and cause widespread chaos. The 2015 attack on Ukraine’s power grid, which left hundreds of thousands of people without electricity, serves as a stark warning of this threat. Council on Foreign Relations provides further details on this.
The Weaponization of Information
Disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining public trust in infrastructure are also likely to become more prevalent. Spreading false information about the safety or reliability of essential services can create panic and disrupt operations. This tactic was observed during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, with misinformation about vaccines and public health measures hindering efforts to contain the virus.
Autonomous Weapons Systems (AWS)
The development of AWS, or “killer robots,” raises serious concerns about the future of warfare. If deployed without adequate human oversight, AWS could make decisions about targeting infrastructure without considering the potential consequences for civilians. The debate surrounding AWS is ongoing, with many advocating for a ban on their development and deployment. Human Rights Watch offers comprehensive coverage of this issue.
FAQ
Q: Is it legal to target infrastructure used for both civilian and military purposes?
A: It depends. International law requires a clear and direct military advantage, and the harm to civilians must be proportionate.
Q: What can be done to protect civilian infrastructure?
A: Strengthening cybersecurity, improving physical security, and promoting adherence to international humanitarian law are crucial steps.
Q: Are drones the biggest threat to infrastructure?
A: Drones are a significant threat due to their accessibility and precision, but cyberattacks and other forms of sabotage also pose serious risks.
Did you know? The 2015 cyberattack on Ukraine’s power grid was the first known instance of a successful cyberattack causing a blackout.
Pro Tip: Organizations responsible for critical infrastructure should conduct regular vulnerability assessments and implement robust security measures to mitigate the risk of attacks.
What are your thoughts on the increasing targeting of civilian infrastructure? Share your perspective in the comments below. Explore our other articles on international security and humanitarian law to learn more. Subscribe to our newsletter for the latest updates and analysis.
