The Intelligence Failure That Foreshadowed War: Lessons from Ukraine
As the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, a disturbing paradox has come to light. Months before Russia’s February 2022 offensive, US and British intelligence agencies had decoded the extent of Vladimir Putin’s intentions. Yet, repeated warnings were dismissed, first by European nations and then by Kyiv itself. An investigation by The Guardian, drawing on over 100 interviews with key figures in intelligence, diplomacy, and the military, reconstructs the secret timeline of a war that was, in many ways, foretold.
Early Warnings Ignored: November 2021
Alarm bells began ringing as early as November 2021. US agencies detected signals suggesting an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. President Biden dispatched CIA Director William Burns, a former US ambassador to Moscow, to warn the Kremlin of the disastrous economic and political consequences. Still, Putin, increasingly isolated, would only engage via a phone call. He used the conversation to voice his own grievances, claiming US warships posed a threat to Russia in the Black Sea.
Putin’s Long Game: A Decision Years in the Making
According to The Guardian, Putin likely made the decision to invade Ukraine as early as the first half of 2020. This period saw constitutional amendments extending his power beyond 2024, coupled with a period of self-imposed isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing him to study Russian history and contemplate his legacy. The weakening of Belarusian President Lukashenko also presented Moscow with an opportunity to use Belarusian territory as a staging ground for invasion.
Escalating Tensions: Spring 2021
Throughout the spring of 2021, troop movements near Ukrainian borders and in Crimea, ostensibly for exercises, began to reveal the scale of Russia’s plans. The US suspected Putin intended to use his annual address on April 21st to justify his intentions. Biden directly called Putin, expressing concerns and offering a summit, knowing it would appeal to the Russian leader.
Shortly after, Putin published a lengthy essay on the history of Ukraine, asserting that “the true sovereignty of Ukraine is only possible in partnership with Russia.” This signaled a clear shift towards a more aggressive stance.
Skepticism in Kyiv and Europe
By late October 2021, the CIA and MI6 were delivering detailed assessments to Kyiv, warning of the escalating threat. Despite assurances of access to intelligence, skepticism prevailed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, elected on a platform of peace in the Donbass region, feared that a full mobilization would cause chaos and panic. He dismissed the warnings, even from his own intelligence services.
In Europe, a reluctance to believe that a large-scale war could erupt on the continent fueled inaction. The memory of flawed intelligence used to justify the 2003 invasion of Iraq cast a long shadow, leading to skepticism towards what were perceived as “fantastical American predictions.”
Intelligence Confirmed, Political Will Lacking
By early 2022, the intelligence picture became overwhelming: satellite imagery of massive troop movements, intercepted military communications revealing preparations inconsistent with anything other than war. Yet, political leaders remained hesitant to accept the reality. As one US intelligence official told The Guardian, “In the final weeks, intelligence officials were beginning to understand, the atmosphere had changed. But political leaders refused to accept it until the incredibly end.”
Putin’s Deception and the West’s Response
Britain’s MI6 spy chief has stated that Putin is “stringing us along,” with no genuine interest in a peace deal, and actively testing the West with tactics “just below the threshold of war.” Sir Richard Moore, the outgoing head of MI6, emphasized that Putin “lies to the world” and “lies to his people,” prioritizing his own legacy over the future of Russia.
The Role of Intelligence Cooperation
Prior to the invasion, Ukrainian intelligence officers received field training with officers from the CIA and Britain’s MI6. This training, conducted in a European country, focused on operating as case officers within Russia and occupied Ukraine, highlighting the pre-war efforts to bolster Ukraine’s intelligence capabilities.
FAQ
What was the key intelligence failure leading up to the Ukraine war?
The key failure wasn’t a lack of intelligence, but a failure to convince political leaders in Europe and Ukraine to take the warnings seriously.
When did the US and UK first become aware of Putin’s plans?
Signals indicating a potential invasion began to emerge as early as November 2021.
Why was Zelensky skeptical of the warnings?
Zelensky feared that a full mobilization would cause chaos and panic within Ukraine.
What role did the Iraq War play in the West’s response?
The flawed intelligence used to justify the 2003 invasion of Iraq created skepticism towards warnings from the US.
Pro Tip: Understanding the historical context of intelligence failures is crucial for improving future assessments and decision-making.
Did you know? The CIA and MI6 had decoded the extent of Putin’s intentions months before the invasion, but their warnings were largely ignored.
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