Ukraine War: Donbas Battles Intensify as Russia Shifts Focus
The battle for the Donbas region of Ukraine is entering a critical phase, with intense fighting concentrated around the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk direction. According to analysts from the Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState, this area could determine the fate of the Donetsk Oblast. Despite concentrating approximately 100,000 soldiers in the region, Russian forces have yet to achieve a breakthrough.
Key Cities Under Pressure: Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk
DeepState co-founders Ruslan Mykhaila and Roman Pohorily identified Sloviansk and Kramatorsk as pivotal points in the upcoming battles. Russian forces are already probing Ukrainian defenses around these cities, with Konstantynivka and Lyman serving as potential gateways to the larger urban area. The capture of the remaining portions of the Donetsk Oblast is estimated to take Russia at least two years and incur substantial losses.
Heavy fighting is also reported around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Russian plans initially aimed for the capture of these cities before the winter of 2025, but those timelines have been significantly delayed due to the resistance of Ukrainian forces.
Zaporoizhzhia: Discrepancies Between Rhetoric and Reality
While the Donbas remains the primary focus, Russia is also building up forces in the Zaporizhzhia region. However, analysts point to a disconnect between official Russian statements and the actual situation on the ground. Recent claims of offensive operations and the capture of settlements like Malokaterynivka, Prymorske, and Stepnohirsk have been contradicted by the reality of the battlefield, with some locations already claimed as occupied last year.
Russia is reportedly reinforcing its positions in the south, preparing for a potential large-scale battle for Zaporizhzhia and the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Hulaypole is identified as a key eastern flank from which Russian forces might attempt to advance and connect with southern groupings to seize control of the entire area.
Strategic Chaos in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk
Russian activity in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts is described as chaotic. Analysts suggest Russia is exploiting vulnerabilities in these regions, potentially to gain leverage in future negotiations. The intention appears to be to employ these areas as bargaining chips, potentially trading them for control of Zaporizhzhia, the Kherson Oblast, and possibly even parts of the Donetsk Oblast.
Did you know? The DeepStateMap project provides a live, interactive map of the war’s progression, tracking the positions of both armies.
FAQ
Q: What is DeepStateMap?
A: DeepStateMap is a Ukrainian OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) project that provides a live, interactive map of the conflict, tracking troop movements and territorial control.
Q: Which cities are currently the focus of fighting?
A: Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, and Myrnohrad are currently experiencing heavy fighting.
Q: Is Russia making progress in Zaporizhzhia?
A: Russia is building up forces in Zaporizhzhia, but analysts note a discrepancy between official claims and the actual situation on the ground.
Q: What is Russia’s potential strategy in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions?
A: Russia may be attempting to gain leverage for future negotiations by exploiting vulnerabilities in these areas.
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