Ukraine’s Resolve Remains Firm: A Nation Unwilling to Cede Ground
Despite growing international discussions surrounding potential peace plans, a recent study by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) reveals a remarkably steadfast Ukrainian public opinion. The vast majority of Ukrainians are firmly opposed to concessions to Russia, even those framed as pathways to peace. This resistance underscores a critical dynamic in the ongoing conflict and shapes the potential trajectory of negotiations.
The Rejection of Russian Terms
The KIIS study highlights that 75% of Ukrainians deem any plan requiring territorial concessions in the Donbass region, limitations on Ukraine’s military capabilities, and a lack of security guarantees from the West as “completely unacceptable.” This is a powerful statement, particularly given the length and intensity of the war. It demonstrates a national consensus that preserving sovereignty and future security is paramount, even at the cost of prolonged conflict.
This stance contrasts sharply with some proposals circulating in international circles, including those reportedly discussed during recent negotiations in Berlin involving US, European, and Ukrainian officials. While details remain scarce, the implication is that a compromise involving territorial adjustments is viewed with deep skepticism by the Ukrainian population.
Shifting Acceptance of Western Security Guarantees
Interestingly, the study also reveals a growing willingness among Ukrainians to accept a peace plan backed by robust security guarantees from Europe and the United States. Currently, 72% are prepared to accept such a plan, a notable increase from 64% in September. This suggests a pragmatic shift – a recognition that long-term security may require accepting a degree of compromise, but only if it’s coupled with credible external protection.
These guarantees aren’t simply symbolic. Ukrainians envision a consistent supply of weapons and financial aid, alongside secured airspace to deter future Russian aggression. This demand reflects a deep-seated distrust of Russia and a determination to avoid repeating past vulnerabilities. The increasing acceptance – from 18% to 31% who would “easily” accept such a plan – indicates a growing willingness to consider concessions, but only within a framework of strong external support.
Zelensky’s Balancing Act and the Search for Allies
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent efforts to secure firm commitments from Western allies, particularly the United States, underscore this dynamic. His discussions in Berlin focused on securing guarantees akin to Article 5 of the NATO treaty, offering a powerful deterrent against renewed Russian aggression. However, Ukraine’s path to NATO membership remains blocked by Russian opposition.
The exploration of alternative security architectures, such as a multinational force or a US-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism, highlights the complexity of finding a solution acceptable to all parties. Zelensky’s acknowledgement of “different positions” with the US regarding territorial concessions demonstrates the delicate balancing act he faces – navigating domestic public opinion while seeking a viable path to peace.
Erosion of Trust in the US, Growing Faith in the EU
A concerning trend revealed by the KIIS study is the declining trust in the United States among Ukrainians. Trust has fallen from 41% in December 2024 to 21% in December 2025, potentially linked to concerns over the pace and scope of US aid. Conversely, trust in the European Union remains relatively stable, with 49% of Ukrainians expressing confidence in the EU’s support.
This shift in sentiment could have significant implications for Ukraine’s geopolitical alignment. While the US remains a crucial ally, the growing reliance on and trust in the EU could lead to a closer integration with European institutions in the long term. This is further fueled by the EU’s willingness to explore innovative security arrangements.
Resignation and Long-Term Preparedness
Despite the desire for peace, Ukrainians appear increasingly resigned to a protracted conflict. Only 9% anticipate a ceasefire by early 2026, while a majority (63%) are prepared to endure the war “as long as necessary.” This grim outlook underscores the deep psychological toll of the conflict and the widespread belief that a quick resolution is unlikely.
This sense of preparedness is reflected in the limited appetite for immediate presidential elections. Less than 10% of Ukrainians believe elections should be held before the end of hostilities, highlighting a prioritization of national security over political processes. President Zelensky’s continued approval rating of 61% suggests a degree of stability and public confidence in his leadership during this challenging period.
FAQ: Ukraine’s Path Forward
- What is the main takeaway from the KIIS study? The vast majority of Ukrainians reject concessions to Russia and prioritize security guarantees from the West.
- Is Ukraine willing to compromise at all? There’s a growing willingness to accept a peace plan *with* strong security guarantees, but not at the expense of territorial integrity.
- Is trust in the US declining in Ukraine? Yes, the KIIS study shows a significant decrease in trust in the United States.
- What are Ukrainians’ expectations regarding the duration of the war? Most Ukrainians are prepared for a long-term conflict.
Did you know? The KIIS is one of the leading independent sociological research organizations in Ukraine, providing valuable insights into public opinion and social trends.
Explore further insights into the geopolitical landscape with our article on The Evolving Role of NATO in Eastern Europe. Stay informed about the latest developments by subscribing to our newsletter here.
