Following two days of talks in Berlin, a potential path toward a ceasefire in Ukraine appears slightly closer, though significant hurdles remain. European and Ukrainian leaders, along with U.S. negotiators, announced an agreement in principle on security guarantees modeled after those provided by NATO, alongside a framework for economic support contingent on a cessation of hostilities.
A Fragile Framework for Peace
The core challenge for Ukraine remains unchanged: it cannot concede territory without robust security assurances. However, stronger guarantees are likely to face staunch opposition from Russia, who has not yet been presented with the proposals. It remains unclear whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is genuinely interested in ending the nearly four-year-long conflict.
The discussions represent a diplomatic step forward, offering a measure of relief to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after weeks of perceived uncertainty following comments from President Donald Trump that appeared to blame Ukraine for stalled diplomacy and criticize European allies. Trump himself expressed optimism, stating, “I think we are closer now than we have ever been.”
Security Guarantees and U.S. Involvement
While Ukraine will not be granted NATO membership, the U.S. and European nations are considering a commitment mirroring NATO’s Article 5 – the principle of collective defense. President Trump is reportedly prepared to submit this guarantee to the Senate, though its form—treaty or resolution—remains undefined.
Any future Russian attack would potentially trigger a response from Western nations including armed force, intelligence support, logistical assistance, and economic and diplomatic actions. However, U.S. officials have clarified that no American troops would be deployed to Ukraine. European officials have indicated—or perhaps hope—that any such mission would be led by the United States.
Ukraine would be allowed to maintain its current military of 800,000 personnel, supported by a “coalition of volunteers” from Europe, with undefined backing from the United States. The goal would be to assist in rebuilding Ukrainian forces and securing its airspace and maritime borders.
Economic Support and Frozen Assets
A financial support package is being developed by the World Bank and BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, with funding from European countries, to ensure Ukraine’s economic future and potential EU membership. The possibility of utilizing Russia’s frozen assets – currently totaling 210 billion euros – is under debate, with a proposed “repair loan” of 90 billion euros by the end of 2027.
However, reaching an agreement on the use of these assets is proving difficult, facing objections from Belgium, where the majority of the funds are held, and other dissenting EU members, as well as concerns from the United States. While Ukraine is urging Europe to seize these assets, the U.S. appears more focused on Russia’s eventual reintegration into the global economy.
What’s Next?
The most sensitive issue remains the status of the Donbas region. U.S. officials have suggested establishing it as a “free economic zone,” while Ukrainian President Zelensky has insisted that Ukraine will not cede sovereignty over the territory and that any Ukrainian withdrawal must be accompanied by a Russian military retreat.
If Putin believes concessions would divide Ukraine and the U.S. from the rest of NATO, he could accept them. However, some analysts, like former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder, believe Putin will reject any security guarantees or the presence of NATO forces in Ukraine, viewing the current efforts as primarily aimed at appeasing President Trump rather than achieving a genuine resolution.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the main outcome of the Berlin talks?
The main outcome was an agreement in principle on a package of security guarantees for Ukraine, modeled after NATO’s Article 5, and a framework for economic support following a ceasefire. However, many details remain to be negotiated and presented to Russia.
What is the role of the United States in these proposed guarantees?
The United States, through envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, played a key role in negotiating the security guarantees. President Trump is reportedly prepared to submit the guarantee to the Senate, but the extent of U.S. commitment—including potential military involvement—remains unclear.
What is the status of Russia’s frozen assets?
The EU has frozen 210 billion euros in Russian assets, and leaders are debating whether to use these funds to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction through a “repair loan.” However, reaching an agreement on this issue is proving difficult due to objections from some EU member states and concerns from the United States.
Given the complex dynamics and unresolved issues, will these negotiations truly lead to a lasting peace in Ukraine, or will they prove to be another fleeting moment of optimism in a protracted conflict?
