A Hemisphere Reset: The U.S. Response to Growing Adversarial Influence in Latin America
The January 3rd “Operation Absolute Resolve,” which resulted in the ousting of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, signals a decisive shift in U.S. Foreign policy. Beyond the immediate consequences within Venezuela, the operation – coupled with the formation of the “Shield of America” coalition and reported restrictions around Cuba – represents a clear message: the U.S. Is actively pushing back against the expanding influence of adversaries in its traditional sphere of influence. This marks a significant departure from the past two decades, during which U.S. Influence in the region, particularly in Venezuela, steadily declined alongside the increasing presence of China, Russia, and Iran. The move aligns with warnings issued in the administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy, which called for a renewed approach to the Monroe Doctrine – the 1823 U.S. Policy opposing further European colonization or interference in the Americas.
Strategic Competition Intensifies
Over the last twenty years, China has made the most substantial gains in Latin America, initially through trade and infrastructure projects often dismissed as standard global economics. However, Beijing’s ambitions have broadened to encompass arms sales, mineral acquisition, the alleged construction of intelligence-gathering stations, infrastructure development including communications networks, and strengthened diplomatic ties.
China’s strategic positioning includes acquiring port facilities at both ends of the Panama Canal and the largest freight port in the Western Hemisphere, located in the Bahamas. More recently, concerns have grown regarding China’s military intelligence capabilities in the region. A February 2026 report from the House Select Committee on China revealed an extensive network of eleven dual-use space ground stations and telescopes across Argentina, Venezuela, Bolivia, Chile, and Brazil, used for intelligence collection and to enhance the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) warfighting capacity. In December 2025, China released a new policy paper underscoring the region’s importance and outlining expanded cooperation programs.
Russia’s influence, while less pervasive than China’s – with the exceptions of Venezuela and Cuba – was notably robust in its military relationship with Caracas prior to Maduro’s removal. Venezuela’s air force was equipped with Russian Su-30MK2 fighter jets, alongside S-300VM, Pantsir-S1, and Buk-M2E air defense systems. Reports indicate the presence of Wagner Group mercenaries in Venezuela as recently as 2024, providing security and training to elite combat units. A 2025 Joint Strategic Partnership Initiative between Russia and Venezuela reaffirmed their intent to coordinate within the OPEC+ framework and jointly stabilize global energy markets, while also outlining cooperation on communications, counterterrorism, and opposition to unilateral sanctions. Maduro publicly stated in October 2025 that Venezuela possessed over 5,000 IGLA-S surface-to-air missiles.
Iran’s influence in the region is less extensive, primarily focused on circumventing sanctions and providing financial support to its proxy groups, particularly Hezbollah. Venezuela has been a key partner in this effort, receiving Iranian Petkaap III fast attack boats, CM-90 anti-ship missiles, GPS jammers, and passive detection systems. Iranian-made drones are reportedly being produced in Venezuela, and Iranian-designed fast-attack naval vessels have also appeared. Intelligence operations linked to Iran have also been uncovered in Brazil and Peru, including a Hezbollah cell planning attacks in São Paulo in 2023 and the arrest of an Iranian Quds Force officer in Lima in 2024 for allegedly planning assassinations.
Why This Matters
Throughout the Cold War, the U.S. Actively monitored and countered Soviet “Active Measures” campaigns in the Western Hemisphere, often engaging in proxy conflicts through funding of political parties, arms shipments, and, in some cases, supporting revolutions. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S. Largely overlooked the ongoing competition for influence in the region, allowing its primacy to diminish.
However, with a growing awareness of “grey zone” tactics and cognitive warfare targeting the U.S., there is a renewed focus on securing the hemisphere. Maintaining secure borders requires strong and reliable neighbors, achievable through a combination of trade, diplomacy, and robust intelligence capabilities to monitor adversarial activities.
Looking Ahead
For years, successive U.S. Administrations have largely ignored the increasing influence of adversaries in the Western Hemisphere, often dismissing their activities as simply economic engagement. This has created security vulnerabilities near U.S. Borders, potentially compromising supply lines, communications, and transportation routes. “Operation Absolute Resolve” presents an opportunity for the U.S. To signal to these adversaries that it will no longer tolerate their encroachment.
The U.S. Has the potential to be a more valuable partner than its rivals. Doubling down on diplomatic engagement and fostering robust relationships with regional neighbors, while firmly resisting adversarial influence, will be crucial to re-establishing U.S. Leadership in the Western Hemisphere.
Will the U.S. Be able to effectively balance assertive action against external actors with a commitment to genuine partnership and respect for sovereignty in the region?
