U.S. Drought Deepens as El Niño Watch Intensifies
A concerning trend is unfolding across the United States: drought conditions are worsening, now impacting 73.7% of the country. This comes as forecasters closely monitor the potential return of El Niño, a climate pattern that could dramatically shift rainfall patterns globally. The situation is particularly acute in states like Texas and Florida, traditionally susceptible to drought during La Niña phases, but surprisingly extends across the Interior Northwest.
The Expanding Drought Crisis
As of mid-February 2026, harsh D2-D4 drought conditions are gripping 22.6% of the U.S., a significant increase of nearly 10% in just two months. Key agricultural areas – Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma – are facing extreme drought (D3 classification). This escalating dryness poses a serious threat to crop yields and water resources.
El Niño’s Looming Influence
The eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is experiencing a notable warming trend, signaling a growing risk of El Niño development. This transition from the current La Niña pattern is expected between February and April 2026, with a 60% chance, and is likely to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 2026). Understanding the potential impacts of El Niño is crucial for proactive planning.
Global Weather Patterns: Brazil and Australia
Beyond the U.S., significant weather events are unfolding in other parts of the world. Heavy rainfall is currently impacting Brazil, with forecasts predicting continued downpours in the northeast, whereas the southeast may experience drier conditions. In Australia, central and south-central regions are anticipating continued wet conditions, but a modern development is emerging: northern New South Wales is forecast to become hot and dry over the next two weeks.
Understanding ENSO: El Niño and La Niña
El Niño and La Niña are opposing phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific. These phases disrupt normal temperature and precipitation patterns, triggering a cascade of global effects. La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures, while El Niño brings warmer temperatures.
Soil Moisture and Precipitation Forecasts
Current probabilistic forecasts suggest a potential shift in soil moisture levels by May 2026. Analog years with similar La Niña to El Niño transitions offer insights into potential rainfall patterns. These patterns are critical for agricultural planning and water resource management.
FAQ: El Niño and Drought
- What is El Niño? El Niño is the warm phase of the ENSO climate pattern, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
- What is La Niña? La Niña is the cool phase of ENSO, with cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region.
- How does El Niño affect the U.S.? El Niño can influence temperature and precipitation patterns across the U.S., often leading to wetter conditions in the South and drier conditions in the North.
- What is the current drought situation in the U.S.? As of mid-February 2026, 73.7% of the U.S. Is experiencing some level of drought, with 22.6% facing severe to extreme drought conditions.
Pro Tip: Stay informed about ENSO conditions through regular updates from the Climate Prediction Center (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml) and the National Weather Service (https://www.weather.gov/fwd/enso).
Do you have questions about the changing climate and its impact on your region? Share your thoughts in the comments below, and explore our other articles for more in-depth analysis.
