The United States experienced a historically low population growth rate of 0.5% between July 2024 and June 2025, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. This marks one of the slowest rates of growth since the early 20th century, even when compared to periods of significant hardship like the Great Depression and the COVID-19 pandemic.
A Historic Slowdown
Historically, the U.S. has seen consistent year-over-year population increases. In the 1950s, during the “Baby Boom,” average population growth was 1.8%. This slowed to 1.2% in the 1990s and further to 1% in the first decade of this century. The only period since 1900 where the U.S. population actually decreased was between July 1917 and June 1918, with a decline of approximately 60,000 people – representing 0.06% of the population at that time. This decrease was attributed to deaths from the Spanish Flu and World War I, coupled with a temporary drop in birth rates.
Recent years have seen low growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, falling to 0.2% in 2021 due to increased mortality and reduced immigration. Outside of the pandemic, 2019 saw a similar slowdown, attributed to fewer births and decreased migration.
Migrants Not Arriving, Residents Leaving
The Census Bureau attributes the current slowdown to a reduction in net international migration – the difference between immigrants entering and emigrants leaving the country. Christine Hartley, a subdirector at the Census Bureau, stated that the “strong decline in net international migration is the primary reason for the slower pace of growth we are observing today.” The decline in net international migration was described as “historic,” falling from 2.7 million (2023-2024) to 1.3 million (2024-2025).
William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, noted that even the recent figure of 1.3 million represents a historically high number. Both Frey and the Census Bureau anticipate that net international migration will continue to decline in the coming years.
Policy Impacts and Economic Implications
Experts believe that increased difficulties for foreigners traveling to the U.S. are a key factor. Since the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the U.S. government has implemented stricter requirements for student and work visas, as well as for asylum and refugee applications. Simultaneously, there has been an increased campaign to deport undocumented migrants, in some cases to third countries like El Salvador. Protections previously offered to migrants, such as Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and humanitarian parole, have also been revoked.
Data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) shows a significant decrease in “encounters” – instances where agents contact individuals attempting to enter the country without meeting requirements. In February 2025, there were 28,613 encounters, a little over 12% of the number recorded in February 2024. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) reported 60,940 encounters between October and November 2025, the lowest for any fiscal year to date and 28% lower than the previous low in fiscal year 2012.
Experts at the Brookings Institution suggest that the slowdown in new arrivals – through humanitarian parole, refugee programs, and at the southern border – has had a greater impact on migration flows in 2025 than deportations.
What Might Come Next
The U.S. is moving toward negative net international migration, meaning more people are leaving the country than entering, a situation not seen since 1971. This could lead to a slower pace of job creation and economic growth. Experts estimate that reduced immigration could weaken GDP and consumer spending by $60 billion to $110 billion over the next two years. A continued decline in migration rates is likely to result in a smaller and older U.S. population, a trend already seen in some European countries. The influx of younger immigrants has historically helped offset declines in the birth rate and maintain a robust workforce.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is net international migration?
Net international migration is calculated by subtracting the number of people leaving the United States (emigrants) from the number of people entering the United States (immigrants).
What was the population growth rate in 2021?
The population growth rate in 2021 was 0.2%, the lowest recent rate, due to increased mortality and reduced immigration during the COVID-19 pandemic.
What role did the current administration’s policies play in the decline?
The current administration has implemented policies that limit the entry of foreigners into the U.S., including stricter visa requirements and increased deportations, which experts believe have contributed to the decline in net international migration.
As the U.S. population dynamic shifts, what long-term strategies might be considered to address the potential economic and social consequences of slower growth and an aging population?
