Nuclear Arms Control at a Crossroads: What Happens Now That New START Has Expired?
The expiration of the New START treaty on February 6th, 2026, marks the first time in nearly four decades the United States and Russia are without a legally binding agreement limiting nuclear weapons. While both nations express a desire to negotiate a new framework, significant hurdles remain, raising concerns about a potential arms race and increased global instability.
A History of Limits: Understanding New START
Signed in 2010, New START restricted both the U.S. And Russia to 1,550 deployed warheads and 800 launchers and bombers. Crucially, the treaty likewise allowed for mutual onsite inspections, providing a degree of transparency and verification. In 2023, Russia suspended its participation, citing concerns about NATO’s actions, but continued to abide by the numerical limits. President Putin later called for a one-year extension, a proposal that was not embraced by the U.S.
The Current Standoff: Formal vs. Informal Agreements
Recent reports suggest Washington and Moscow were nearing an informal agreement to continue observing New START’s limits beyond its expiration. However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated Russia would find it difficult to accept an agreement lacking legal force. “The provisions [in New START] can be extended formally, but it’s difficult to imagine how something like that could be done informally,” Peskov stated on Friday. This divergence in expectations presents a major obstacle to progress.
Renewed Dialogue: A Potential Path Forward
Despite the treaty’s expiration and disagreements over its future, a glimmer of hope emerged with the agreement to reestablish high-level military-to-military dialogue, which had been suspended since 2021. This re-engagement, occurring alongside peace talks in Abu Dhabi, suggests both sides recognize the importance of communication, even amidst broader geopolitical tensions. The Abu Dhabi talks also facilitated the exchange of over 300 prisoners of war.
Russia’s Position: Security Concerns and New START Initiative
Russia has consistently emphasized its security concerns as a driving factor in its approach to arms control. Moscow’s initiative on New START remains “on the table,” according to Peskov, but has yet to receive a response from the United States. This lack of response, coupled with ongoing geopolitical friction, contributes to the uncertainty surrounding the future of nuclear arms control.
The US Perspective: A “Better Agreement”
Former President Trump, in a recent interview, indicated a desire for a “better agreement” with Russia, suggesting a willingness to negotiate a new treaty. However, the specifics of such an agreement remain unclear. The U.S. Has not publicly detailed its priorities or red lines for future negotiations.
What’s Next for Nuclear Arms Control?
The coming months will be critical in determining the future of nuclear arms control. Several key factors will influence the outcome:
- Political Will: A genuine commitment from both the U.S. And Russia to negotiate in decent faith is essential.
- Geopolitical Context: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and broader tensions between the West and Russia will undoubtedly shape the negotiations.
- Verification Mechanisms: Establishing robust verification mechanisms will be crucial to building trust and ensuring compliance with any new agreement.
FAQ: New START and the Future of Nuclear Arms Control
Q: What happens now that New START has expired?
A: The U.S. And Russia are no longer bound by any legal limits on their nuclear arsenals, increasing the risk of an arms race.
Q: Is a new agreement likely?
A: Both sides have expressed a desire to negotiate, but significant disagreements remain regarding the terms of any new agreement.
Q: What is the significance of reestablishing military-to-military dialogue?
A: It provides a crucial channel for communication and risk reduction, even amidst broader geopolitical tensions.
Q: What was the role of the Abu Dhabi talks?
A: The talks provided a venue for discussions on nuclear arms control and facilitated a prisoner exchange.
Did you know? The New START treaty was the last remaining major arms control agreement between the United States and Russia.
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