Stock futures dropped Tuesday evening after the Associated Press projected that Democrats would win both chambers of Congress in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, CNBC reported. Futures tied to the S&P 500 traded 0.6% lower, Nasdaq-100 futures shed 0.6%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 161 points, or 0.7%, though all three were off their worst levels of the session.
Futures Slide as Democratic Sweep Takes Shape
Traders worked the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City on Nov. 2 as the projections came in. “Equities trended lower as it’s looked more likely that Democrats are going to pick up the House and most likely the Senate,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, Tuesday evening as futures were pulling back.
Investors are keeping a close eye on the elections today. I’m curious myself to see how these results could shake up business. https://t.co/e0cojZ2XoU
Texas Governor Race Puts Data Center Buildout in Focus
The AP also projected that Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa defeated Republican incumbent Greg Abbott. Hinojosa has pledged a moratorium on data centers in the key tech hub.
High-risk data center play CoreWeave fell 4% in overnight Robinhood trading, while Elon Musk’s SpaceX was off 5%. Saglimbene asked: “If you get some governorships that are Democratic, what does that mean for the data center buildout, which has already seen a lot of skepticism over the last couple weeks in terms of the hyperscaler capex spending?”
Polymarket: 87% probability of a Democrat sweep tonight in the Midterms (winning back the House & the Senate), the highest odds to date. "It's the inflation, stupid." pic.twitter.com/EzloZz7KGH
Big Tech Sells Off While AMD Climbs on Earnings
Microsoft, Amazon and Nvidia all traded lower in overnight Robinhood trading. AMD initially surged double digits in post-market action after reporting third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat analyst expectations, and was last up 5%.
The Invesco Solar ETF was up 3% in Robinhood trading as solar stocks traded higher on speculation that a Democratic majority in Congress would halt policies by President Donald Trump taken against the industry. Investors broadly believe a Democratic sweep would rule out further business-friendly policies such as tax breaks and could bring increased scrutiny on industries like banking.
A wide range of indicators confirm that the economy has been the #1 issue for voters in the US midterm elections. Within the economy, it’s primarily about affordability … and within affordability, a major focus remains gas prices.#economy #markets #elections #Midterms2026
History Suggests Midterms Move Markets Only Briefly
Over the long run, the market’s verdict on midterms has been bipartisan, according to Yahoo Finance: the S&P 500 was higher a year after all 20 midterms since 1946, measured from Election Day, with an average gain of about 14%. The closest call was 1946 itself, a gain of just 0.1%.
The last time President Trump lost the House, in 2018, the S&P 500 sank nearly 15% by Christmas Eve as the Federal Reserve raised rates and trade tensions with China escalated, Yahoo Finance reported. The index then bounced, finishing about 12% higher a year after that midterm election.
Even a Democratic sweep would leave Washington divided. “We expect the 2026 midterm elections to yield a divided government, with sweeping policy changes constrained by Senate rules, party divisions, presidential veto power, and already wide federal deficits,” wrote Kurt Reiman, head of fixed income at UBS’s Chief Investment Office, in a recent report cited by Yahoo Finance. Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, put it in an August note: “Midterms are less about choosing a president than checking one.”
Trump Signals Willingness to Work With Democrats
President Donald Trump may have eased pressure on the market overnight by declining to challenge the midterm results in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. “I think we’ll work with the Democrats, and we’ll get along very well with them,” Trump told the Journal.
Questions Readers Are Asking About the 2026 Midterm Market Reaction
Polymarket gave Democrats a 76% chance of winning both the House and the Senate as of Tuesday morning, with a Democratic House and a Republican Senate a distant second at 19%, according to Yahoo Finance.
After the lone Republican hold, in 2002, stocks fell 8% as the U.S. moved toward war with Iraq, Yahoo Finance reported.
🔴Gold rose as the dollar and yields fell after early 2026 US midterm results showed strong Democratic gains. Major outlets projected Democrats would take the House and Senate in a rebuke to Trump, signaling potential gridlock that curbs deficit spending. This lifted bullion near… pic.twitter.com/H6zxKWQAZS
After the seven midterms that left Democrats running Congress, stocks rose an average of 11% over the following three months and were higher every time, according to Yahoo Finance.
Yahoo Finance noted that the House looks like the surer bet while “the Senate is where the drama is.”